The Philippines has the audacity to begin practicing attacking Chinese aircraft carriers, and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has deployed massive forces to rehearse a conflict against the US-Philippine coalition in the South China Sea.
The U.S.-Philippines side-by-shoulder joint exercise continues, and relevant personnel broke the news that the exercise seems to include subjects that treat Chinese aircraft carriers as imaginary enemies and "sink" them. At the same time, open source intelligence shows that during the exercise, a large number of PLA military aircraft and ships maintained high-intensity activities in the South China Sea, and there are even videos proving that H-6K bombers have taken off and landed on an island and reef in the South China Sea. The emergence of these signs also indicates that the game between China and external forces such as the United States and the Philippines around the South China Sea is entering a new stage.
[H-6 bomber lands on Woody Island]
Recently, as the "Shoulder to Shoulder 2024" exercise jointly organized by the United States and the Philippines has come to an end, more and more details about the exercise have been revealed. Among them, a photo from the director of the Joint Command and Training Center of the exercise, Philippine Army Colonel Lojico, posted on his personal social media to attract attention from the outside world.
Because even though this photo is a close-up of the model, we can still see from the details of the picture that the model of the aircraft carrier, which is suspected to be used to refer to the Liaoning or Shandong ships, is placed on a map used for wargame deduction, and the blog post along with the photo reads, "We have completed the concept walkthrough and are ready to put it into practice."
[A blog post posted by Philippine Army Colonel Loggico]
These details are enough to prove that the background of the photo was a strike exercise against a PLA aircraft carrier organized by the United States and the Philippines during the exercise, and judging from the signs that two U.S. B-52H bombers entered the South China Sea from the direction of the Sulu Sea during the exercise, the U.S. military probably actually conducted a practical simulation.
From this point, it is not difficult to see that after China has continuously strengthened its dominance in the South China Sea by virtue of its strategic superiority, the United States is increasingly inclined to use military force to reverse the strategic disadvantage it is currently facing. The shoulder-to-shoulder exercise is likely to be a test of the feasibility of military action against China, and it also marks that the South China Sea game is about to enter a new stage of more confrontation.
【Demonstration model of BrahMos missile in the Philippines】
In the face of this trend, it is necessary for the PLA to prepare accordingly. After all, at the moment when the Typhon missile has officially been stationed in Luzon and the BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missile purchased by the Philippines from India has also arrived, the pressure on the PLA's surface ship forces in the direction of the South China Sea is not small. Underestimating the enemy will only bury hidden dangers, and even if our family is far more than 10 years ago and can afford to suffer a certain amount of war damage, this problem cannot be ignored.
Fortunately, judging from a series of information disclosed by open source intelligence, the PLA did not take this threat lightly, and even to a certain extent, we have long been prepared for a rainy day on this issue, so that while the shoulder to shoulder exercises are being carried out, the PLA is already carrying out targeted deployments.
This can be seen from the fact that the US B-52H bomber was intercepted by two Jian-11 fighters that took off from Xisha as soon as it entered the South China Sea, and the PLA has always maintained a high-intensity monitoring of the air situation in the South China Sea, and it is difficult for the US air force to even maintain covert activities, let alone organize a group of aircraft to launch a large-scale attack on ships.
[The activities of PLA military aircraft and ships disclosed by open source intelligence]
In addition to the J-11, the PLA has also deployed an unknown number of Wuzhan-7 in the South China Sea to carry out regular reconnaissance activities in the western part of Luzon Island and the Nansha Islands. Considering that the PLA's Wuzhen-7 was a regular visitor to the South China Sea long before the start of the exercise, and had a record of operating less than 70 kilometers from Manila Bay.
In the face of such high-intensity reconnaissance activities, the PLA cannot be said to have a complete grasp of the activities of the Philippine army and the US military stationed in the Philippines, but it can be regarded as knowing everything. At least it is not difficult to find out the location of the BrahMos anti-ship missile of the Philippine army and the Typhon missile of the US military.
It is worth mentioning that the PLA's naval and air electronic warfare units also made a sense of presence during the exercise. In foreign media reports, the No. 793 electronic reconnaissance ship, which appeared in the news footage at a distance of less than 2 nautical miles from the US and Philippine fleets, is an example, and off-camera, the PLA also dispatched at least one Y-8 electronic warfare plane to carry out tasks in the exercise area to collect electronic intelligence of the US-Philippine joint exercise forces in an all-round way.
[The 793 ship of the People's Liberation Army is in the same frame as the US and Philippine ships]
Of course, having an intelligence advantage alone is not enough for the PLA to build a strong deterrent to the US-Philippine joint exercise forces, and we also need to have a "fist" to demonstrate our ability to practice this intelligence advantage.
Coincidentally, in a video released by the Chinese military horn, a picture of a PLA H-6K bomber landing on Yongxing Island in Xisha appeared. This means that the PLA has the ability to deploy our strategic bombing forces in the direction of the South China Sea, combined with the CCTV military disclosure of the H-6K bomber launching an air-launched ballistic missile.
The PLA's air strikes are sufficient to cover the entire South China Sea and its surrounding areas, and before the US military thinks about how to fight the PLA aircraft carriers together with the Philippines, it is better to think about how long its aircraft carriers can survive in the face of the PLA's intelligence superiority and strike capability.
[H-6 launches air-launched ballistic missile]
Therefore, on the whole, although it is inevitable that the situation in the South China Sea will enter a new stage of the game after the United States and the Philippines strengthen military cooperation and begin relevant military preparations, we can still maintain a strategic contempt and tactical attention to this issue.
Because the United States will choose to bet on military means, it is because time is not on their side, so that the leadership of Washington can only do it in one battle. But the anxious Americans apparently forgot one thing, and that is that China's superiority exists not only at the strategic level, but also at the tactical level. Unless the United States intends to bet all its chips on a decisive battle with China that will determine the future of both sides, the United States has the intention of engaging in military adventures in the South China Sea, and they are not capable of doing so.