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At the beginning of May, the domestic pig and grain market, the market trend "abruptly changed", and the market showed a trend of rising hand in hand! In terms of live pigs, guided by emotions, the holiday consumption support became stronger, pig prices rebounded against the trend, and the domestic market showed a general upward trend. In the grain market, corn and wheat rose hand in hand, in particular, wheat prices rose sharply, market sentiment improved significantly, favorable policy support highlighted, and the corn market was also supported by sentiment to a certain upward trend, the specific analysis is as follows:
First, the price of live pigs rebounded against the trend!
In terms of pigs, before the holiday, pig prices performed less than expected, the market was under supply pressure and insufficient consumption support, and the price was mainly volatile and downward!
According to data analysis, on May 2, the pig price rose by 0.1 yuan, the price of pigs rose to 14.84 yuan / kg, the domestic market rally expanded, the north and south regions, the price of slaughtering enterprises generally rose, the mainstream area, the pig price rose to 13.8 ~ 15.7 yuan / kg, the regional pig price difference is general!
On the one hand, entering the May Day holiday, affected by the factors at the beginning of the month, the mainstream group live pig enterprises are on holiday, the pig slaughter plan is less, and the scale of pig enterprises has obvious pull out of the slaughter mood, and the social side of the retail pig farm slaughter enthusiasm is general, the market has a high price sentiment, the pig supply pattern is slightly tight, the price of the north and south factories rose by about 0.1 ~ 0.3 yuan / kg!
On the other hand, the holiday consumption has risen significantly, Beijing and Shanghai and other places, mainstream consumer cities, wholesale market white strip purchase and sales enthusiasm has increased, traders to undertake the ability to strengthen, market surplus pressure weakened, slaughtering enterprise orders increase significantly, the north and south mainstream slaughtering enterprises have increased the performance of start-up, for the pig just demand to become stronger, the price increase mentality is heating up!
Therefore, supported by the holiday factor, the purchase and sale pattern changes, pig prices show a contrarian trend, it is expected that in the next 1~3 days, pig prices or will continue to be strong, however, the market briefly rushed higher, with the weakening of the holiday atmosphere, demand to follow up and decline, pig prices or will be under pressure again, the market will pay attention to the rhythm of the group's pig slaughter and the change of the average weight of pigs!
Second, the price of wheat has risen sharply!
At the beginning of May, the official support has become stronger, the temporary storage of wheat and the rotation of policy wheat are about to be suspended, the market purchase and sales heat has increased, the enthusiasm of the grain storage bidding transaction has been boosted, the wheat premium transaction phenomenon has been highlighted, and the market has shown an obvious bullish mood!
Judging from the feedback from the grassroots, at present, the demand for flour consumption is general, the downstream market is mostly based on rigid procurement, and the confidence in flour hoarding is insufficient, especially the difficulty of storage is increasing, and the market consumption is in the off-season, so the impact of consumption on the market is limited!
However, due to the low inventory of mainstream milling enterprises, and the auction of wheat in grain storage is about to be suspended, the downstream demand subject has obvious grain hoarding sentiment, the enthusiasm for wheat purchase and sales has increased, and many ground flour mills have raised prices to stimulate the operation of the volume, and the wheat market has returned to the "seller" market, and the main body of grain has a stronger right to speak!
According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the listed price of milling enterprises has shown a general upward trend, with a price increase of about 1~2 cents/jin, among which, in Shandong, the average price of wheat has risen to 1.306 yuan, and the quotation of mainstream enterprises has risen to 1.29~1.35 yuan/jin; in Hebei market, the average price of wheat has risen to 1.327 yuan/jin, and the mainstream enterprises have risen to 1.3~1.335 yuan/jin; in Henan market, the average price of wheat has risen to 1.317 yuan/ Jin, the listed price of mainstream wheat rose to 1.29~1.34 yuan / catty!
Third, the price of corn rose against the trend!
At the beginning of May, the progress of corn grain sales in domestic producing areas has accelerated again, at present, the surplus grain in Northeast China has bottomed out, and the grain source has been transferred to traders, due to poor demand follow-up, the rigid demand of enterprises is weak, and the corn in Northeast China is mainly weak and stable!
Recently, in the North China market, due to the active sale of grain by farmers, the channel goes with the collection, the operation of some traders has increased, the arrival volume in front of the enterprise is at a high level, the factory purchases on demand, and the price reduction mentality is strong, and the corn quotation of enterprises in many places in Shandong has fallen below 1.1 yuan / catty!
On the one hand, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has been further consumed, and the enthusiasm of peasant households in selling grain has decreased, and in particular, the market's sentiment of resisting low-price grain has become stronger, and the amount of corn in circulation has dropped sharply; on the other hand, the price of wheat has risen sharply against the trend, the rotation of grain reserves in China is about to be suspended, and the market's enthusiasm for increasing grain reserves in North China has increased, and the main body holding grain has sold grain cautiously, and the supply of grain depots has decreased significantly!
On the demand side, in the North China market, the operating rate of mainstream deep processing enterprises is higher, the consumption level of raw grain is strong, the amount of grain source is reduced, and it is difficult for enterprises in many places to meet the daily start-up.
According to data analysis, at present, in the Northeast market, the mainstream quotation of deep processing is stable, in Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia, the mainstream quotation of corn deep processing is 0.9~1.185 yuan/jin, and the average quotation is 1.108 yuan/jin, and in the mainstream area of Heijiliao, the price of dry grain corn is about 1.1~1.15 yuan/jin!
In the Shandong market, the main body of grain reluctance to sell stronger, the supply of grain sources decreased significantly, the arrival volume in front of the enterprise fell to about 300 cars, the factory price increase stimulated the amount, Shandong, most of the enterprises listed quotations rose, Leling Zhonggu, Xiangchi Jianyuan, Zhucheng Yuanfa, Chenming starch, etc., mainstream enterprises rose 0.5 ~ 1.5 cents / jin, Shandong corn listed prices rose to 1.095 ~ 1.23 yuan / jin, the mainstream price was 1.11 ~ 1.185 yuan / jin, the average price rose to 1.124 yuan / Jin, in just two days, the average price rose by 0.6 cents/catty!