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Oil prices "dived", and international crude oil prices fell under pressure......
According to data analysis, recently, international oil prices have shown a trend of falling from a high level, on April 26, WTI crude oil quotation rose to 83.85 US dollars / barrel, as of 20:11 on May 1, US oil fell 1.56 US dollars in a single day, to 80.37 US dollars / barrel, in less than 3 trading days, US oil fell by 3.48 US dollars / barrel, the price was as high as 4.15%! In terms of Brent crude oil, as of 20:11 on May 1, Brent crude oil quotation fell to 84.95 US dollars/ barrels, down as much as 1.56% in the day!
International oil prices "dived", showing a downward trend for three consecutive days!
On the one hand, Israel and Hamas are expected to reach a ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt, which will significantly dampen geopolitical tensions, and on the other hand, US crude oil inventories rose by 4.906 million barrels in the week of April 26, far exceeding market expectations of a decline of 1.1 million barrels.
Therefore, due to the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may have the opportunity of "2 consecutive declines"!
According to the domestic gasoline and diesel price management, every 10 working days for price adjustment, this round of the cycle from April 30 to May 15, May 15 at 24 o'clock to start the price adjustment window!
However, due to the continuous decline in international oil prices, if the international oil prices continue to fall during the May Day holiday, the rate of change of crude oil will fall sharply on the second working day of the current round of pricing cycle after the holiday, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices may be expected to fall!
According to the data, on May 2, the price of 92/95 gasoline in various provinces and cities in China was lowered last time, among them, the price in Beijing was 8.19 yuan/liter, the price in Shanghai was 8.15 yuan/liter, and the quotation in Shandong was 8.15 yuan/liter, please refer to the figure below!
At the same time, in the domestic pig and wheat markets, the market is showing a strong trend! The specific analysis is as follows:
Pig market: by the stage of good support to strengthen, during the festival, pig prices "easy to rise and fall", from the market feedback, on May 2, the national three-yuan pig price in 14.84 yuan / kg, up 0.1 yuan from yesterday, the domestic market showed a generally higher performance, Northeast, North China, Northwest and East China, Central China, Southwest China, pig prices generally rose 0.1 ~ 0.25 yuan, South China market is mainly stable!
On the one hand, during the festival, the breeding end is busy with the festival, the retail pig farm slaughter rhythm holiday, the group pig enterprise holiday, the large factory has a significant shrinkage of the phenomenon of slaughter, the north and south markets, the circulation of suitable weight pigs has decreased, the group pig enterprises have increased their enthusiasm for bidding transactions, and the traders have become stronger;
On the other hand, the consumption profit is stronger, set off by the festive atmosphere, in the north and south of the country, the wholesale market white strip purchase and sales rhythm has accelerated, and the pressure on market surplus has been reduced, in particular, the household consumption and group consumption demand has increased, the catering and tourism industry has improved significantly, pork consumption has increased significantly, the downstream orders of slaughterhouses have increased significantly, the operating rate has increased, and the demand for purchasing live pigs has improved significantly!
Therefore, under the holiday factor, I personally believe that pig prices will continue to rise, pig prices or will usher in a "small spring", however, due to the short festival, consumption is difficult to continue to increase, after a short period of pig prices go up, with the recovery of the rhythm of slaughter at the breeding end, the group pig enterprises increase in slaughter, pig prices or will be adjusted downward again, and after the inertia of pig prices after the holiday, the prelude to the upward movement of the pig cycle may be launched!
Wheat market: In April, the domestic wheat market suffered a sharp decline in performance, under the pessimistic factor, flour purchase and sales in the seasonal off-season, and the grain storage and local grain depots increased wheat rotation, the wheat market is facing severe supply mismatch pressure!
Due to the approaching listing cycle of new wheat, the market generally estimates that the new wheat harvest, the enthusiasm of milling enterprises to replenish wheat is not high, the difficulty of grain procurement is weak, and under the support of many parties, the wheat spot has fallen sharply, and the listed price of some enterprises has fallen to 1.27~1.29 yuan / catty!
However, the extremes of things must be reversed, with a series of official operations, temporary storage and storage of grain and wheat will also be suspended, the market for the grain supply pattern of tight concerns to become stronger, although, the lack of substantial improvement in consumer demand, but, due to the mainstream milling enterprises wheat inventory is low, and the new wheat on the market still needs to be doped, some enterprises to replenish the demand for raw grain, wheat purchase and sales heat has increased significantly, and the price has continued to rise!
In the past two days, wheat producing areas, Shandong, Hebei and Henan and other places, the mainstream milling enterprises wheat price increase reached 2~4 cents/jin, the national average price of wheat from 1.298 yuan/jin, rose to 1.317 yuan/jin, just two days, wheat has risen by 1.9 cents/jin, wheat prices have shown a significant upward trend!
Personally, I believe that due to the guidance of emotions and the realization of good policies, it is expected that the heat of wheat purchase and sales will continue to heat up, and the center of gravity of spot wheat prices may further move upward, which will also improve the market's expectations for the new wheat opening scale price, and the market will pay attention to the changes in the expected production of new wheat!