Author丨Li Sha Zhou Xiaoxiao
Editor丨Li Bo and Zhang Xing
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 30. The meeting emphasized the need to continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas.
Pay attention to digesting the stock of real estate and optimizing incremental housing
We will continue to adhere to city-specific policies, consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises, and financial institutions, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing to protect the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers. It is necessary to combine the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development to promote the high-quality development of real estate.
Real estate is still a key area for risk prevention. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference made it clear that it is necessary to actively and steadily resolve real estate risks, and the Political Bureau of the Central Committee will continue to prevent and resolve risks as a key task in real estate work.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, believes that the prevention and resolution of risks is still the primary task of real estate work, and real estate work should focus on preventing systemic risks.
Since last year, the "package" of real estate support policies has continued to be launched, hot cities have successively optimized and withdrawn housing purchase restrictions, various localities have focused on reducing the threshold for buying houses and the proportion of down payments, and mortgage interest rates in many places have fallen to historical lows, and financial support for real estate has increased. However, judging from the data performance in the first quarter of this year, the real estate market continued to adjust, and the sales and prices of commercial housing did not stop falling.
Figure/ The 5-year LPR interest rate has been lowered several times Source: 21 financial news
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the sales area and sales of new commercial housing fell by 19.4% and 27.6% year-on-year respectively, real estate development investment fell by 9.5% year-on-year, and the indicators such as the area of new housing starts, construction area and completed area did not show significant improvement, and the housing price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in March was still mainly reduced, and the downward pressure on the real estate market still existed.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
On the basis of previous meetings and documents, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee made new arrangements for real estate work, emphasizing the need to "coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing".
Industry experts: How to digest the inventory of second-hand housing is a top priority
Source: Xinhua News Agency
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that with the continued downturn in the property market, the current area of commercial housing for sale is once again close to the historical high in 2016, which is an important background for the Political Bureau of the Central Committee to digest the stock of real estate.
Li Yujia pointed out that focusing on the present, how to digest the inventory of second-hand housing is a top priority. From the perspective of real estate sales, the number of second-hand housing listings and transactions are higher than that of new houses, and the de-conversion cycle of second-hand houses is longer, and hot cities are generally more than 3 years. From the price point of view, the decline in the price of second-hand housing is greater than that of new housing, which has had a certain impact on the pricing system of new housing, and then affects the developer's decision to acquire land and start construction.
Li Yujia believes that the current demand for rigid demand and improved housing has great potential, and how to connect the destocking of second-hand houses with the sales of new houses has become the key to stabilizing the real estate market and the volume of the industry.
Yang Chang, chief analyst of the policy team of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, said that for the digestion of stock real estate, there have been many beneficial explorations in some places in the early stage, and then further expansion at the national level is conducive to the formation of positive support for the real estate market.
Supporting the "trade-in" of housing is an important part of promoting the digestion of existing real estate and connecting the second-hand housing and new housing markets. According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, since last year, more than 40 cities have supported the "trade-in" of commercial housing. Various localities through acquisition, sales and subsidies to promote housing "trade-in", support measures are different, but the overall is still in the exploration and initial stage, if the follow-up related supporting policies continue to improve, will be expected to play a greater role in the linkage of the first-hand and second-hand housing market.
There are more than 40 cities in the country where houses can be "traded-in"
According to the statistics of 21 Data Journalism Lab as of April 26, there are more than 40 cities across the country where houses can be "traded-in". The three major modes of operation are detailed in the figure below↓
Source: 21 Data Journalism Lab
In his view, this policy idea is a two-pronged approach from the perspective of stock and increment, implementing the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, and some investment and financing platforms may be expected to participate in the "elimination of storage" work in the future.
In terms of specific measures to digest the stock of real estate, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that there may be two policy ideas:
The first is to convert part of the stock of commercial housing into affordable housing, which may form an effective supply of affordable housing in a relatively short period of time and solve people's livelihood problems;
The second is to fully relax the purchase restrictions, guide the residential mortgage interest rate to further decline, and activate the property market, which is the main channel for digesting the stock of real estate, and it is also a key move to reverse the current expectations of the property market.
Li Yujia suggested that the allocation of affordable housing and second-hand housing to destock the combination, by the central government to issue special bonds, the formation of funds, etc., and then loan to central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises, the acquisition of the stock of second-hand housing in the market, and then at a lower price to the rigid demand, affordable housing buyers, to achieve a closed loop of funds. In this way, the circulation of second-hand housing will be accelerated, the price of second-hand housing will be stabilized, and panic listings will be reduced, and the second-hand housing market is expected to gradually stabilize after the gradual stabilization of the new housing market, and then gradually stabilize the real estate enterprise construction and land market.
In terms of optimizing incremental housing, Wang Qing believes that the next step in optimizing incremental housing should adopt the dual-track model of "market + security" and gradually increase the proportion of affordable housing, which is the core of "building a new model of real estate development". At the same time, the quality of new housing should adapt to market demand and reflect the development direction of green, low-carbon, intelligent and safe.
Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura China, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the downturn in the real estate industry has a greater impact on GDP and fiscal revenue. At present, the real estate market is obviously overshooted, and the real estate sales situation is not good, which will have an impact on upstream and downstream enterprises and bad debts of banks.
Lu Ting further said that in order to promote the steady recovery of China's economy, the key is to grasp the real estate sector. At present, the real estate industry has been significantly overshooted, and it is recommended to introduce more active real estate policies, focusing on strengthening the work of ensuring the delivery of housing and maintaining the market-oriented real estate supply system. Promote the completion of previous transactions and promote market clearance by guaranteeing the delivery of housing.
SFC
Editor: Jiang Peipei, intern: Su Jinyi
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