■China Economic Times reporter Zhou Xuesong
On April 30, after the news of the Politburo meeting was released, Beijing and Tianjin relaxed their purchase restrictions almost simultaneously.
On the afternoon of April 30, Zhang Yang, a citizen of Beijing, came up with the idea of buying a house in Tianjin, and he soon found that Beijing had also relaxed its purchase restrictions after Tianjin. On the same day, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed to study the policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and the relevant real estate policies of the meeting further boosted the confidence of the property market.
In fact, there are not many people who have increased confidence in the property market recently, and Zhang Yang is just one of them. On April 29, real estate stocks ushered in a sharp rise. On the same day, the real estate development sector of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks soared. In the real estate development and real estate service sectors of the A-share market, there are more than 10 stocks with a daily limit, while Hong Kong stocks have changed more drastically because there is no daily limit, among which the share price of Shimao Group has risen by 60%. On April 30, real estate stocks continued to be active, and many stocks such as Jingneng Real Estate rose to the limit. Investors' confidence in the real estate market is also gradually increasing.
Image source/Authorized by Photo.com
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that it is necessary to continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas. We will continue to adhere to city-specific policies, consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises, and financial institutions, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing to protect the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers.
At the same time, the meeting also proposed that it is necessary to combine the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development to promote the high-quality development of real estate.
Recently, Chengdu, Wuhan and other places have successively lifted restrictions on housing purchases. On April 30, Tianjin lifted the purchase limit of housing over 120 square meters. Zhang Yang, a Beijing citizen interviewed by a reporter from the China Economic Times, immediately wanted to go to Tianjin to see the house after learning about the incident. Similarly, he also expects that Beijing will relax the purchase restrictions and the value of the house will be maintained and increased.
Soon, Beijing also introduced a new property market policy. On the evening of April 30, the official account of "Beijing Release" announced that in order to better meet the reasonable housing needs of improved families, Beijing once again optimized its real estate policy. On the basis of the implementation of the existing housing purchase restriction policy, households that already own housing that have reached the purchase limit are allowed to purchase a new house outside the Fifth Ring Road. This move shows that the housing purchase restriction policy in first-tier cities has been further adjusted.
Yu Xiaoyu, general manager of Yihan Think Tank Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times that there are three main concerns of this meeting: first, to ensure the delivery of the building unswervingly, second, to reiterate the "destocking", and third, to build a new model The general direction remains unchanged.
After 2014 and 2015, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee did not involve "destocking", and the re-mention of "destocking" means that the favorable real estate policy may be further increased. Judging from the statement of the meeting, it is possible that both ends of supply and demand will exert force at the same time, and while strengthening destocking, there will be some restraint in cities with large supply of land and new houses, which is expected to further boost the confidence of the property market.
Yu Xiaoyu believes that the promotion and digestion of the stock of real estate through external policy forces will effectively alleviate the market downturn and improve the expectations of home buyers.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, told the China Economic Times that the meaning of "overall research on the policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing" is that the digestion of the stock of housing and the policy of incremental housing should be considered together. The previous strategy of "exchanging the old for the new" was to not only digest the stock of second-hand houses, but also provide new demand points for the destocking of new houses, that is, to consider the second-hand houses and first-hand houses as a whole and as a whole, which is innovative.
Yan Yuejin believes that the policy is of great significance, including the previous sharp rise in real estate stocks, indicating that the real estate policy will have heavy content. The digestion of the stock of real estate will help to really drive buyers to sell the old and trade in the new, which will become an important power source for a new round of market boost.
On the one hand, macro policies are expected to move forward to promote the macro economy to continue to rebound and improve, and on the other hand, to set the tone for the property market and prevent and resolve real estate risks is still the focus. At the same time, the policy measures of co-ordinating the study and digestion of stock real estate and optimizing the incremental housing are proposed, which points out the direction for the next real estate policy.
The agency believes that in the short term, it is expected that policies such as purchase restrictions and loan restrictions in core cities will be further optimized and adjusted, and specific policies for the overall digestion of stock real estate and optimization of incremental housing are expected to be gradually implemented. In terms of optimizing incremental housing, it is expected that the supply of high-quality land plots and high-quality housing is expected to increase to meet the people's expectations for high-quality housing. Although the "three major projects" were not mentioned at this meeting, the "three major projects" will still play a relevant role in stabilizing investment and growth in the future.
Some experts said that at present, China's real estate inventory is nearly 750 million square meters, not including the second-hand houses that have surged in the number of listings recently, and the pressure on the property market to destock is greater. In the medium and long term, the recovery of the real estate market depends on the employment income expectations of residents, which is closely related to the macro economy.
John Lam, head of real estate research for Greater China at UBS Investments, recently said, "After 3 years of bearishness, our view of Chinese real estate has become more positive. ”
UBS also gave specific optimistic judgments, predicting that China's real estate sales and price declines will narrow in 2024 and the market will gradually recover in 2025. In addition, industry insiders generally said that in the long run, they are optimistic about the real estate market in first- and second-tier core cities.
Chief Producer丨Wang Hui and Che Haigang
Producer丨Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Editor-in-Chief丨Mao Jinghui Editor丨Gu Yun