April Politburo meeting: It is necessary to develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions

Reporter Tan Zhijuan reports from Beijing

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on 30 April and decided to convene the Third Plenary Session of the 20 th CPC Central Committee in Beijing in July this year to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work.

The reporter of "China Business Daily" noticed that some new proposals appeared at the meeting to attract market attention, such as "insisting on taking advantage of the momentum and avoiding tightening before and loosening later", "relying on the front to effectively implement the macro policies that have been determined", "issuing and making good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible", "flexibly using policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratios", "developing new quality productivity according to local conditions", "coordinating the study and digestion of stock real estate and optimizing the policy measures for incremental housing", "ensuring that provinces, cities and counties with high debt risks can truly reduce debt, and stable development", etc.

In this regard, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the Research Institute of Guangdong Kai Securities, said that the Politburo meeting in April is very important, and the meeting will decide whether to continue or adjust the previous policy tone and specific measures according to the economic performance since the beginning of the year. Judging from the Politburo meetings in April of previous years, the main policy line of the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress has been continued on the whole.

In Luo Zhiheng's view, the Politburo meeting on April 30 affirmed the economic performance since the beginning of the year, believing that the positive factors have increased and achieved a good start, but it still maintains a positive policy tone and has not made a policy turn due to the "good start" of economic data in the first quarter.

Insist on taking advantage of the momentum and avoid tightening before and then loosening

The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress

In this regard, Luo Zhiheng told reporters: "In this meeting, 'take advantage of the momentum and avoid tightening before and loosening' is a new formulation, which means that we will continue to maintain or even further increase policy efforts until economic development is on the right track and endogenous growth is realized." ”

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that from the perspective of economic operation in the past few years, the first quarter can usually achieve a good start, but the second quarter will weaken by inertia, of which the lack of policy follow-up is an important reason. Therefore, this meeting requires the policy to "take advantage of the momentum", not to "tighten before and then loosen", "to rely on the front to effectively implement the macro policies that have been determined", and "to do a good job in the consistency assessment of macro policy orientation, and strengthen the management of expectations".

Wen Bin also said: "This indicates that the subsequent macro policies will maintain a certain intensity and rhythm, consolidate and enhance the economic recovery momentum, and create a good atmosphere for the upcoming Third Plenum in July." ”

We should make efforts to effectively implement the macro policies that have been determined

In terms of macroeconomic policies, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to make efforts to effectively implement the macroeconomic policies that have been determined, and to implement a positive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, and ensure that the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level are spent on time and in full. It is necessary to flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratios to increase support for the real economy and reduce the cost of comprehensive social financing. It is necessary to do a good job in assessing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientations and strengthen the management of expectations.

In terms of monetary policy, the meeting proposed that "we should flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratios to increase support for the real economy and reduce comprehensive social financing costs." Wen Bin said, "It is expected that the second quarter of easing and increase the necessity of the increase is insufficient, in addition to the continued recovery of the economy, the room for interest rate cuts is to a certain extent constrained by the narrowing of commercial bank spreads and the delay in the timing of interest rate cuts in the United States, but it is not ruled out that the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds through RRR cuts." ”

In Wen Bin's view, it is expected that the focus of monetary policy will continue to be "precise and effective", make good use of the newly established 500 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation reloans, and support the digital, intelligent and high-end upgrading of small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises and key areas. Give full play to the role of re-lending, re-discounting, and inclusive small and micro loan support tools, and guide financial institutions to increase loans to private and small, medium, and micro enterprises, and reduce financing costs.

In terms of fiscal policy, the meeting proposed that "it is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, and ensure that the 'three guarantees' at the grassroots level are spent on time and in full."

Wen Bin believes that from the first quarter, last year's additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds are still the protagonist, before the end of February all the funds have been issued to the local government, and required to be used up by the end of June, which is also an important support for infrastructure better than expected. At the same time, the issuance of ultra-long-term treasury bonds has not yet started, and the issuance of special bonds is also slower than in previous years.

Therefore, Wen Bin pointed out that after the deployment of the Politburo meeting, it is expected that the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be launched in the second quarter, and the use of new special bonds will also be accelerated, but the focus may be shifted to the third quarter, forming a situation of rolling succession of funds, so as to avoid centralized supply to cause greater pressure on the capital side and push up the financing cost of government bonds. The Ministry of Finance has also previously stated that it will strengthen the overall planning of central and local funds, stock and incremental funds, and form a synergy with ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to improve the overall efficiency of funds.

Oriental Jincheng believes that in the second quarter, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds will be opened, and the issuance of local government special bonds will also increase significantly. This will provide sufficient funds for infrastructure investment, which also means that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will continue to remain at a high level in the short term.

Dongfang Jincheng also further said that this year's fiscal policy tone is "moderately strengthened", and the intensity of fiscal expenditure will be further increased, and the central government will also speed up the transfer payment to local governments to ensure that local governments' "three guarantees" expenditure will not be affected by the decline in land transfer income.

Develop new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions

The meeting stressed the need to develop new productive forces in the light of local conditions. It is necessary to strengthen the layout of national strategic scientific and technological forces, cultivate and expand emerging industries, advance the layout and construction of future industries, and use advanced technology to empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. It is necessary to actively develop venture capital and expand patient capital.

Luo Zhiheng believes that the meeting particularly emphasized "adapting measures to local conditions" and pointed out that "transformation and upgrading of traditional industries" is also the due meaning of the development of new quality productivity. In the future, it will become the key to industrial development to balance the relationship between war-revitalizing industries, future industries and traditional industries around the new quality of productivity.

In Luo Zhiheng's view, first, emphasizing that the development process should be "adapted to local conditions", it also points out that the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries are indispensable. Second, the policy system for strategic emerging industries and future industries will be improved at an accelerated pace.

"Since the beginning of this year, along the development direction clearly pointed out in the "Government Work Report" such as low-altitude economy and digital economy, various industrial policies have been intensively introduced, the development space of related industries is broad, and the investment opportunities in related tracks have increased. For example, the low-altitude airspace is opened and the division is completed, so that the industrial development has a law to follow, and CCID Consulting predicts that by 2026, the scale of the mainland's low-altitude economy is expected to exceed one trillion yuan. Luo Zhiheng added.

Tao Chuan, chief macro analyst of Soochow Securities, also said that at the Politburo meeting, the development path of "new quality productivity" has undergone two marginal changes: one is the development of various provinces "according to local conditions", and the second is the first time to put forward "actively develop venture capital and strengthen patient capital", which is inseparable from the great development of the capital market, and should continue to vigorously promote it in relevant aspects.

(Editor: Hao Cheng Review: Zhang Rongwang Proofreader: Zhai Jun)