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The diplomatic center of gravity in May, Macron

author:Gu Ziming said

In April, China's home "diplomatic month" ended, and the away diplomacy in May is kicking off.

On April 29, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying announced that at the invitation of President Emmanuel Macron of the French Republic, President Vučić of the Republic of Serbia, President Schuyuk of Hungary and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the President of the People's Republic of China will pay a state visit to the three countries from May 5 to 10.

Considering that Foreign Minister Wang met with a large number of Asian foreign ministers in April, it is expected that after we return from Europe, we should set off a whirlwind of Asian diplomacy, and we will not even rule out participating in the China-Japan-ROK summit to learn from Japan and South Korea, which are closely following the United States.

The most important thing in this round of foreign visits is France's Macron.

This year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, and in order to show the importance of China-France friendship, we also present our first visit to a Western country since the pandemic in 2020.

Similarly, for Macron, he is now in dire need of China's support.

Because after the meeting between China and France in May, Macron will face two big hurdles in his life, one is the European Parliament election in June, and the other is the Paris Olympics in July.

At the European Parliament in June, Macron wanted to win over European leaders and seek to snipe European Commission President von der Leyen and curb the power of this European sister.

The diplomatic center of gravity in May, Macron

At the Paris Olympics in July, Macron sought to replace Biden as the host and promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine or Palestine and Israel, so as to become a real European brother.

The diplomatic center of gravity in May, Macron

The conflict between Macron and von der Leyen is mainly over trade policy, climate policy, and relations between Europe and the United States.

The massive equipment renewal that China has embarked on this year, as well as cooperation in the field of new energy and nuclear energy, can lead to huge contracts, which will be an important bargaining chip for Macron to convince European leaders ahead of the meeting in June.

If, as Macron wishes, the president of the European Commission is replaced by the former president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, a professional bureaucrat, then France's trade and climate policies will be dominated by France, and France will be more independent in its relations with Europe and the United States.

But if Macron loses, then his influence within the EU will be extremely limited for the rest of his term, and France's foreign policy will be tied up by the EU.

As for the rivalry between Macron and Biden, it is mainly about global leadership, and the proud French have always had a strong desire to challenge the United States.

The Paris Olympics held in July this year, where the leaders of major countries gathered, naturally became a platform for transactions between major powers, and it was also the best time for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and Palestine and Israel this year.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has been a practice in the United Nations to mobilize all members to sign an "Olympic Truce" proposal before each Olympic Games, and to stop the war for one week before and after the Olympic Games.

This one-month truce window is enough to calm all sides, such as the ceasefire in the Yugoslav civil war in the early 90s,

If it can't be done during this period, then it will be directly escalated, for example, in the 08 Olympics, Russia raided Georgia, and in the 22 Winter Olympics, Russia raided Ukraine.

This will also make Macron either replace Biden as the biggest contributor to world peace at the Paris Olympics in July, enjoying glory, or embarrassing himself in front of the world.

Following Musk's drift U turn and regaining our favor,

Macron faces von der Leyen and Biden, wants to have an advantage, and there is also a choice, which is to draw on the mysterious power from the East and become an old friend of the Chinese people.

The diplomatic center of gravity in May, Macron

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