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"Historically, it is not uncommon for a proxy war involving major powers to last for several years, and it is likely that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be the same. ”
On April 28, local time, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, admitted the "tactical" retreat of the Ukrainian army.
He posted on social media that in order to preserve troops, Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from the villages of Berdzich, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka in Donetsk Oblast and established new defensive positions in the western direction of these three villages.
Why did the Ukrainian army retreat "in a hurry"?
The outside world noticed that the villages of Berdich and Semenivka, where the Ukrainian army retreated this time, are located north of Avdeyevka, and the village of Novomikhailivka is a little south, near Maryinka.
It should be noted that the Russian side announced in February this year that it had taken full control of Avdeyevka, an important defense hub of the Ukrainian army. Marinka, about 30 kilometers southwest of Donetsk, was once one of the key points of repeated contention between Russia and Ukraine, and the Russian army declared it "completely liberated" in December last year.
In the opinion of Shao Yongling, an expert on military issues, the three villages evacuated by the Ukrainian army this time are not strategic locations, at least not leading to the overall collapse of the Ukrainian army's defense line. The direct cause of the forced retreat of the Ukrainian army was the failure to create a more solid front after the previous loss of Maryinka and Avdeyevka.
The deeper reason is that the Ukrainian army is currently seriously short of ammunition and troops, and the Russian army uses a large number of gliding guided bombs to bomb Ukrainian positions, which has exacerbated the plight of the Ukrainian army. This bomb has high-precision and long-range strike capabilities, and Russian aircraft can be projected outside most Ukrainian air defense systems.
However, some observers in Ukraine pointed out that the recent sudden collapse of the Ukrainian army's defense line in this area was caused by the chaos of the army's internal defense. Because the Russian army recently used the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade and the 115th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Army to launch attacks during the rotation of troops, it only took about 72 hours to control the important heights west of Avdeyevka - the village of Ocheredine.
After the "hurried" retreat of the Ukrainian army from three places on the front line, Syrsky also said that the Ukrainian army had sent troops to replace the defenders in these areas who had suffered heavy losses.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Klimenko announced on the 30th the establishment of the Third Combat Brigade of the State Border Service of Ukraine, which was named the "Hart" brigade. At present, the brigade is already strengthening the defense of the eastern border of Ukraine.
In this regard, the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, assessed that the Russian army may make significant tactical progress in the coming weeks, but it is unlikely to overwhelm Ukraine's defenses. The British "Guardian" also pointed out that the Ukrainian army is currently facing a "difficult but not yet catastrophic" situation.
The Russian army will launch a large-scale offensive?
It is worth noting that in addition to the retreat of the Ukrainian army in the Donetsk direction, Ukraine's domestic energy infrastructure has also become the target of Russia's recent key attacks.
On April 27, local time, many places in Ukraine were hit by a new round of large-scale missile attacks by the Russian army, and many energy infrastructure were damaged under artillery fire, and 4 thermal power plants were damaged, resulting in power grid outages.
On the same day, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a message saying that in the past week, the Russian army used long-range sea-based and air-based precision-guided weapons such as "Dagger" hypersonic missiles and drones to carry out 35 precision strikes on Ukrainian energy and military industrial facilities.
Reuters believes that this round of attacks by the Russian army is the fourth round of large-scale air strikes against Ukraine's power and other energy infrastructure since March 22. During several rounds of Russian attacks, Ukraine lost 80% of its thermal power generation capacity and 35% of its hydropower capacity.
AFP quoted Ukrainian security officials as saying that the Russian army's attack on Ukraine's energy, transportation and other infrastructure may be targeted measures before launching a large-scale offensive, with the aim of paralyzing the production, transportation and delivery of Ukrainian military materials.
In this regard, Shao Yongling said that Russia's attack on Ukraine's energy facilities is a move to undermine Ukraine's military production capacity, thereby consuming Ukraine's air defense resources and reducing its air defense forces on the front line.
"But I don't think there will be a larger-scale offensive on the Russian side in the future, because at present, its investment in manpower, weapons and equipment on the front line is at a high level, and the space for subsequent expansion of the offensive is very limited. Shao Yongling said.
Is there any hope for a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Some analysts believe that the reason why the Russian army seized the fighter plane that partially collapsed in the Ukrainian defense line and gave full play to its huge advantage in ammunition is that it hopes to expand the results of the war before the latest military aid from the United States and the West arrives in Ukraine.
Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a package of $60.8 billion in military and economic aid to Ukraine, and exercised executive power to approve a batch of weapons worth $1 billion to aid Ukraine, including a variety of ammunition and combat vehicles. The weapons came from Pentagon stockpiles and are expected to arrive in Ukraine sooner.
In addition, British Prime Minister Sunak recently announced the "largest military aid ever" to Ukraine, Germany has agreed to provide Ukraine with another "Patriot" air defense system, and the Netherlands has also announced an increase in military aid to Ukraine.
What makes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even more looking forward to is that Kiev is negotiating a long-term agreement with Washington that will prompt Washington to provide military, economic and political support to Ukraine over the next 10 years.
On April 29, local time, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg made a surprise visit to Kyiv and held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. At a joint press conference held after the talks, the parties announced that NATO will set up a special fund of 100 billion euros over five years to provide financial support for Ukraine's defense.
"The continuous assistance of the United States and the West to Ukraine has turned the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a protracted war and wheel war that has been dragged on for a long time. Shao Yongling further pointed out that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has long been a contest between Russia and Ukraine, but a confrontation between Russia and the entire West in terms of military industry and comprehensive strength. "The prolongation of the war and the long-term attrition of Russia is in itself the purpose and interest of the United States and the West, especially the United States. Therefore, they have no interest in a ceasefire or peace talks. ”
Shao Yongling bluntly said that historically, it is not uncommon for a proxy war with the intervention of major powers to last for several years, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to be the same.
The British "Guardian" said a few days ago that as Europe and the United States enter the election season, the definition of peace will become a key battleground. Some European scholars believe that "if ending the war comes at the cost of turning Ukraine into a no-man's land, then this is not only a defeat for Kyiv, but also for Europe and its security policy".
Editor: Fang Feifei
Editor-in-charge: Zhao Xin