April is coming to an end, after the wheat market fell sharply, the market gradually calmed down, and the price entered the stage of "stalemate", but the corn market is still a "storm", and the price of deep processing is like a tide......
At present, the sentiment of the main body of corn market is low, and the performance of purchase and sales is "weak".
Supply side:
(1), the Northeast market surplus grain bottomed out, the channel accumulated storage pressure is greater, although, the grain storage increase or will continue to 6 ~ 7 months, however, the grain storage quotation is more with the market, the initiative to raise the price of the operation is not good, and the quality of the grain source is strict, for the market support is limited.
Due to the differentiation of grain source price differences, the northeast corn does not have the cost performance of the south, the local channel sales are not smooth, and the pressure of accumulation has also increased significantly, although the channel has a certain wait-and-see mentality, but under the premise of lack of outsource, the local purchase and sales level is weak, and the market will inevitably have downward pressure!
(2), in the North China market, the grassroots surplus grain is still 1 ~ 2 into the scale, the channel storage scale has reached 7 ~ 8 percent, at this stage, by the weather and the new wheat harvest is approaching, the grassroots farmers sell grain actively, the channel further storage mentality is poor, the supply of circulating grain sources is loose, and the level of corn remains high!
Demand side:
On the one hand, in Northeast China, the demand follow-up is insufficient, the ultra-low rice inventory of local feed enterprises in the early stage is high, the passive accumulation of deep processing is obvious, the corn consumption capacity is limited, and the channel is limited in North China and South China, the market consumption support is insufficient, and the pressure of production and marketing mismatch exists;
On the other hand, in the North China market, the amount of local grain sources has surged, and the deep processing enterprises are under pressure from downstream products, the pressure of market competition has increased sharply, the operating rate of enterprises in many places has been lowered, superimposed, the wheat harvest is approaching, the channel has a certain pressure to vacate the warehouse, the market bearish mentality is higher, and the sentiment of enterprises to reduce prices is strong!
Therefore, under the interweaving of long and short periods, the Northeast market has a slight support, and the price is mainly weak and stable, and the dry food quotation of mainstream enterprises is 1.046~1.175 yuan / catty!
However, the North China market showed obvious pressure of production and marketing mismatch, deep processing quotations continued to decline, North China corn fell into the "hardest hit area", Shandong mainstream corn quotation fell to 1.08 ~ 1.23 yuan / catty, the mainstream quotation fell to about 1.1 ~ 1.15 yuan / catty, production and marketing prices inverted to further appear!
Nowadays, the corn market is "chaotic overnight", especially, in North China, the corn quotation in many places is not as good as Heilongjiang, and the market sentiment is almost "collapsed".
As we all know, since the beginning of this year, the grain reserves in the northeast region continue to carry out the corn storage plan, in recent days, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Liaoning, the grain reserves still have the action of increasing the storage of corn.
Among them, from April 29th to 30th, China Grain Storage Liaoning Branch, two-way purchase and sale of corn, 29 plans to purchase 12,430 tons, 30 days plan to purchase 10,000 tons, Jilin 29 plans to purchase 31,428 tons, 30 days plan to purchase 1,000 tons, Inner Mongolia, 29 days plan to purchase 25,000 tons, 30 days plan to purchase 17,899 tons!
However, in the North China market, only some areas have been directly under the Central Grain Reserve Depot to harvest local corn! In recent days, there has been no plan to increase local corn reserves in the North China and Huanghuai markets. If the spot corn market falls further, in order to stabilize market sentiment, there is still a certain opportunity to increase grain reserves in the North China market......
However, before the "bottom" of grain reserves is realized, the corn in the North China market is still facing a severe risk of selling pressure, and the spot corn market is still fluctuating and weak, but from a rational point of view, the grassroots surplus grain is gradually weakening, and the space for corn to fall again is limited......
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