The article is original, unauthorized, please do not reprint, offenders will be investigated!
Oil prices adjusted, up 7 cents and down 7 points......
It is reported that before 24 o'clock tonight, the oil price adjustment 8 times during the year, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices showed a "5 up, 1 down and 2 stranded" level, of which, gasoline rose 875 yuan / ton during the year, diesel price rose by about 845 yuan / ton, and the conversion price of the national No. 92 gasoline rose by about 7 cents / liter during the year!
According to data analysis, at 24 o'clock tonight, the 9th refined oil price adjustment in the year entered the "window period", according to the performance of this round of pricing cycle of 10 working days, with reference to international crude oil U.S. oil $83.85 and Brent crude oil $89.5, the domestic crude oil change rate or will hover around 1.71%, gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall by 90 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price of No. 92 gasoline is estimated to fall by 7 cents / liter (subject to official news).
This round of oil price decline is a certainty, and the market is showing a narrow downward trend, which is mainly due to the situation that the international crude oil market maintains a high level of shock! Although, compared with the previous U.S. oil $86.91 and cloth oil $91.17, the center of gravity of international oil prices has fallen slightly, but the market bottom support is strong!
On the one hand, the average daily production capacity of international crude oil fell by 2.2 million barrels in the second quarter due to the plan of the International Organization of Oil Producing Countries to reduce production capacity, and according to the latest news, the new US crude oil inventory fell by 6.4 million barrels more than expected, and the market's concerns about tight crude oil supply became stronger;
On the other hand, although Iran and Israel have not further escalated the conflict, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is still tense, after the United States passed a new round of foreign aid bills with a scale of up to 95 billion US dollars, which further exacerbates the risk of escalation of regional conflicts!
However, due to the sluggish economic data of the U.S. manufacturing industry, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts have increased, which may have a certain impact on the crude oil market!
Now, the oil price adjustment is imminent, the current round of gasoline and diesel prices or will be in a narrow range of the main fall, we tell each other, the price adjustment time has been determined, however, the decline is slightly unsatisfactory......
At the same time, in the domestic soybean meal and urea markets, the market trend is differentiated, the urea market maintains a strong trend, the demand follow-up is strong and the inventory level is declining, which has certain support for the urea market. The soybean meal market maintains a weak trend of shock, the bottom of the market support still exists, and the price may continue to fluctuate lower fundamentals!
In the urea market, according to data analysis, at present, the domestic mainstream provinces and regions, small and medium-sized granular urea quotations maintain an upward trend, among them, Shandong, Anhui and Shaanxi enterprises raised 10~30 yuan/ton. Among them, in Shandong, the mainstream enterprises are quoted at 2190~2240 yuan/ton, the price of small granular urea in Henan market is 2180~2240 yuan/ton, the price of small granular urea in Hebei market is 2160~2190 yuan, the quotation in Anhui is 2210~2240 yuan, and the quotation in Shanxi is 2120~2190 yuan/ton......
On the one hand, recently, the shutdown and maintenance of urea enterprises has increased, the utilization rate of enterprise equipment is about 81%, the average daily production capacity is about 180,000 tons, the urea production capacity has been slightly reduced, the inventory level of some enterprises has declined, the inventory pressure has been significantly reduced, and the company has a certain price mentality;
On the other hand, at present, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is relatively scattered, and the market purchase and sales performance is average, however, the factory demand has followed up and strengthened, the production of compound fertilizer has entered the peak season, the demand for replenishment has surged, and the number of new orders of enterprises is more, and the demand for replenishment is relatively positive!
Therefore, based on the tight market supply pressure and strong demand follow-up, in the short term, the urea market may maintain a strong operation trend, especially the high nitrogen fertilizer of compound fertilizer enterprises has entered the stage of centralized production, which has strong support for the market!
In the soybean meal market, the domestic spot soybean meal price showed a stable and weak trend, in the coastal oil mills, Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin and Guangdong, 43% protein soybean meal ex-factory price in 3250 ~ 3320 yuan / ton, the price fell 10 ~ 20 yuan / ton!
At present, the soybean meal market is facing long and short pressure! On the one hand, imported soybeans have not yet entered the stage of accumulation, the operating rate of domestic oil mills has increased generally, the inventory level of soybean meal is still low, and oil mills have a certain mentality of high prices; on the other hand, the level of imported soybeans into the port is average, the Brazilian soybean discount quotation is relatively firm, and the cost of domestic imported soybeans is high, which has certain support for the soybean meal market;
However, from a rational point of view, the level of domestic imported soybeans into the port may gradually improve, from the market feedback, in April, the scale of Brazilian soybean exports to China reached 8.226 million tons. Argentine soybeans for export have also begun, with 41,000 tons of ships shipped since April, and the ship plan is 295,000 tons!
Last week, the operating rate of domestic sample oil mills was 55%, the soybean crushing level was more than 1.92 million tons, and the domestic soybean meal supply level will gradually improve, however, affected by the May Day holiday, this week, the operating rate of oil mills may fall back to about 51%, and it will take time for soybean meal to accumulate storage!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, I personally believe that in the short term, spot soybean meal or will maintain a weak and stable shock trend, with the further increase in imported soybeans into Hong Kong, after the May Day holiday, soybean meal or will quickly accumulate storage, prices or gradually decline pressure!
Oil price adjustment! Up 7 cents and down 7 points! After the price adjustment on April 29, how about No. 92 gasoline, urea, and soybean meal! What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet, and the content is for reference only!