In the grain market, from the recent market feedback, the domestic wheat market has been hit hard, a few days ago, by the new wheat listing cycle is approaching, the grain storage to increase the wheat rotation process, the demand to follow up is relatively bleak, under the multi-party bearish, the center of gravity of wheat prices fell back to 1.3 yuan / catty, the listed price of domestic milling enterprises in many places has hit a new low, and the quotation of some enterprises has fallen to about 1.275 yuan / catty!
After a short period of wheat decline, the market sentiment has stabilized, in recent days, the milling enterprise price performance has weakened significantly, sporadic areas, wheat quotations have stopped falling and rising, however, the average price of domestic wheat is still sideways at 1.3 yuan / catty, the market is still facing pressure from many parties!
On the one hand, consumer demand is poor, flour purchase and sales are in the cyclical off-season, flour storage is difficult, which also inhibits the performance of downstream demand follow-up, dealers replenish the demand is poor, flour procurement is more cautious, and in terms of by-products, due to the decline in corn prices continue to pressure the bran market, the domestic mainstream flour enterprises are less than 0.7 yuan / catty, milling enterprises are facing double pressure, the loss pressure is higher, and the enterprise lacks enthusiasm to replenish the raw grain;
On the other hand, the wheat supply level is relaxed, although the grassroots and channel inventories are gradually depleted, and the level of imported wheat is expected to be lowered, but due to the strong new wheat production, there is still a centralized warehouse wheat operation before the wheat harvest in the grain storage and local grain depots, and the wheat auction is still loose, and the difficulty of enterprises to purchase raw grain is weak!
However, with the gradual decline in the level of policy wheat rotation, the pessimistic mentality of the market has gradually eased, superimposed, the inventory of milling enterprises is low, and there is still the sentiment of replenishment of old grain before the wheat harvest, it is expected that the bottom of the wheat market is strong, and the price is limited, and the market may be in a stage of weak and stable shock!
Refined oil market: April is coming to an end, a new round of gasoline and diesel price adjustment is imminent, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are falling, this will be the second time in the year, the cost of residential vehicles has been slightly improved!
According to institutional analysis, in this round of pricing cycle, the crude oil market showed a high shock trend, the last cycle, U.S. oil rose to $86.91, cloth oil rose to $91.17, with the market's concerns about the prospect of crude oil consumption and the increase in the level of U.S. crude oil inventories, the Middle East geopolitical risk spillover reduced, international oil prices have the center of gravity downward performance, U.S. oil quotations fell to about $81 / barrel!
However, due to the previous week, the United States crude oil inventories fell sharply more than expected, superimposed, the Middle East geopolitical tension is tense again, and the U.S. economic outlook is expected to be poor, the market is expected to strengthen the Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the value of the dollar weakened, for the international oil price support to become stronger, a few days ago, the international oil price rose against the trend, the U.S. oil quotation rose to 83.85 US dollars, cloth oil quotation rose to about 89.5 US dollars / barrel, which reduced the expectation of a decline in domestic oil prices!
According to the analysis of institutional data, on April 29, the 10th working day after the end of the ninth oil price adjustment of the year, the domestic crude oil change rate was -1.83%, the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to fall by 70 yuan, which is equivalent to an increase in price, and the price of 92/95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel is estimated to fall by 0.05~0.06 yuan.
After all, the first 8 oil price adjustments in the year, the cumulative increase in No. 92 gasoline was 0.7 yuan / liter, even if 10 oil prices fell so much that it was difficult to erase the increase in last year......
Judging from the market feedback, after the fall in oil prices, the price of 92 gasoline in various provinces and cities across the country may be slightly reduced, the price of 92 gasoline in Beijing may fall back to about 8.2 yuan / liter, the mainstream quotation of the Shandong market may fall to about 8.16 yuan / liter, in most parts of the country, the price of 92 gasoline is still in the "8 yuan era", the decline in oil prices is still a long way to go, I hope that the next oil price can be reduced heartily......
However, based on the fundamentals of the high international oil prices at this stage, the next oil price adjustment time is 24 o'clock on May 15, and the rate of change of crude oil may be at the beginning, and there is no shortage of risks for oil prices to rise again next time!
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