Recently, the wheat market has gathered in many ways, and the spot quotation has fallen in retaliation, in the mainstream winter wheat producing areas in China, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the center of gravity of wheat prices has fallen back to about 1.302 yuan/jin, and some enterprises have bottomed out at 1.27~1.28 yuan/jin......
At present, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out, and the impact of wheat price reduction on farmers is limited, mainly affecting channels and milling enterprises, but due to the sharp decline in the price of old wheat, this has an adverse impact on the price of new wheat.
Recently, the domestic grain storage and local grain depots, two-way purchase and sale of wheat prices have performed poorly, in Hebei, wheat bidding premiums have rebounded, but most of them are mainly at low prices. In the Shandong region, the transaction of wheat stored in the ground fell to 2,530 yuan/ton, and the performance was poor!
Specifically, on April 28, Shijiazhuang Luquan District plans to sell 3,337 tons of wheat, with an average price of 2,580~2,610 yuan/ton, an average price of 2,595 yuan/ton, a premium of 35 yuan/ton, and an average price of less than 1.3 yuan/ton;
In terms of bidding and procurement of grain reserves, on April 28, in Shandong, Zaozhuang Xuecheng directly under the warehouse plans to pre-purchase 2,100 tons of wheat for 24 years, with a reserve price of 2,600 yuan/ton, all of which are unsold; Xiangshui County, Jiangsu Province plans to purchase 6,586 tons of wheat for 24 years, with a transaction of 3,000 tons and a floor price of 2,660 yuan/ton!
Therefore, judging from the two-way wheat purchase and sale transaction performance of grain storage, institutions generally believe that the new wheat is listed in a centralized manner, and the opening price may generally be around 1.22~1.25 yuan/jin, after all, the transaction price of grain storage in some areas fell to about 1.29 yuan/jin.
Now, after a short retaliatory decline in wheat prices, the market sentiment is gradually repaired, wheat quotations tend to stabilize the operation, only more than a month left from the wheat market, around mid-May in Hubei, wheat will be harvested one after another, then, this round of wheat prices to stop falling, can the market "180 ° big turn", spot wheat prices staged the final "crazy"?
Personally, I believe that before the new wheat goes on the market, the wheat market is still facing obvious pressure!
First, the operating rate of milling enterprises is low!
Due to the purchase and sale of flour into the off-season, affected by factors such as weather and residents' consumption habits, the purchase and sale of flour is relatively deserted, recently, some small and medium-sized flour mills in China have stopped harvesting and shutdown, the operating rate of enterprises is low, from the analysis of institutional data, last week, the operating rate of domestic small and medium-sized milling enterprises was 31.85%, down 1.35 percentage points from the previous week.
Due to poor demand, cold flour purchase and sales, poor demand for bran, milling enterprises generally maintain low start-up, low inventory performance, replenishment demand is more cautious, raw grain consumption demand is still poor;
Second, the market confidence is insufficient, and the price of the new wheat scale is expected to continue to fall!
As the center of gravity of the price of old wheat fell to 1.3 yuan/jin, and the purchase transaction price of some grain storage wheat fell to 1.29 yuan/jin, the market was more pessimistic about the prospect of new wheat, which also suppressed the sentiment of the market.
Third, the pressure on wheat supply still exists!
It is understood that wheat imports in March were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 34.2% year-on-year, however, due to the downturn in the domestic wheat market, the new wheat harvest is expected to be higher, entering April, traders unsubscribe from the United States and Australia wheat orders increased, wheat import levels or will gradually decrease!
However, due to the deviation of the rotation of grain reserves, the pressure of policy wheat stocks still exists, and there are still price reduction auctions in grain reserves and local grain depots before wheat harvest, and the wheat supply pattern is relatively loose!
Personally, I believe that although the rhythm of wheat concentrated rotation may be weakened, the risk of market selling pressure will gradually decrease, but due to the relatively sufficient supply pattern, and the lack of substantial demand for good, superimposed, the new wheat listing cycle is approaching, the wheat market lacks obvious benefits, before the wheat harvest, the price will still be weak and stable shocks, and the new wheat may show a weak pattern under the merger!
However, there is also some uncertainty in the market, in particular, the impact of weather on wheat production may support the direction of further adjustment of wheat prices......