Text: Yan Xiang, Xu Ruchun
From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1,505.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the growth rate fell in the short term but continued to grow as a whole. Core conclusionsFrom January to March 2024, the cumulative growth rate of total revenue of industrial enterprises has slowed down, but it still maintains positive growth. From the perspective of revenue, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, a decrease from the high growth rate in the previous two months, but maintained positive growth. In terms of volume and price, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value from January to March 2024 was 6.1%, 0.9 percentage points slower than that from January to February 2024, and the price index was flat from the previous month, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of PPI being -2.7%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared with the first two months of 2024. From the perspective of industry categories, the cumulative growth rate of total profits of the mining industry in the three major categories narrowed, and the cumulative growth rate of total profits of manufacturing and electrical and water products declined. From January to March 2024, the total profit of the mining industry was 296.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared with that from January to February 2024, the total profit of the manufacturing industry was 1,017.24 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and the total profit of the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry was 192.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%. From January to March 2024, the cumulative growth rate of total profits in manufacturing and electricity and water decreased by 9.5 and 23.1 percentage points respectively compared with the first two months of 2024. The pull of various sub-items of the manufacturing industry on the total profit decreased compared with the previous two months. The equipment manufacturing industry and the consumer goods manufacturing industry have boosted the cumulative profit growth rate of industrial enterprises, and the resource goods manufacturing industry has turned into a drag on the profit growth rate. Specifically, the cumulative profit of the resource manufacturing industry from January to March 2024 decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, dragging down the total profit by 2.5 percentage points, and a significant decrease from the total profit from January to February 2024, which increased by 0.8 percentage points. From January to March, the total profit growth rate of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was 10.9% year-on-year, driving the total profit of industrial enterprises to increase by 2.6 percentage points, which was lower than the 3.6 percentage point increase in the total profit from January to February. From January to March 2024, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 18% year-on-year, driving the total profit of industrial enterprises to increase by 4.9 percentage points, the highest among all sub-items from January to March. The equipment manufacturing industry is continuing to play the role of "ballast stone" for profit growth. In March 2024, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.3%, a slight increase from the previous month. In terms of industry categories, the asset-liability ratio of the mining industry was 57.1% in March, unchanged from the previous month. The asset-liability ratio of the manufacturing industry was 56.6 percent in March, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the asset-liability ratio of the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries was 60 percent in March, down 0.1 percentage points from February. Risk Warning: First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations, second, macroeconomic risks are less than expected, and third, overseas markets fluctuate sharply. Report text 1 The revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises fell in the short term From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 1,505.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and the growth rate fell in the short term but continued to grow as a whole. From January to March 2024, the cumulative growth rate of total revenue of industrial enterprises has slowed down, but it still maintains positive growth. According to the dismantling of the income statement, the year-on-year change in the total profit of industrial enterprises is approximately the sum of the change in operating income and the change in profit margin. From the perspective of revenue, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, a decrease from the high growth rate in the previous two months, but maintained positive growth. In terms of volume and price, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value from January to March 2024 was 6.1%, 0.9 percentage points slower than that from January to February 2024, and the price index was flat from the previous month, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of PPI was -2.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than that in the first two months of 2024. On the cost side, the cumulative growth rate of operating costs increased slightly, and the total operating costs incurred by industrial enterprises above designated size reached 26.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The gross profit margin of operating income from January to March 2024 was 14.8%, a slight decrease from 15% in the same period last year. Operating income margin was 4.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the first two months of 2024 and flat year-over-year.
2 The profit growth rate of the mining industry stopped decliningFrom the perspective of industry categories, the cumulative growth rate of the total profit of the mining industry in the three major categories narrowed, and the cumulative growth rate of the total profit of manufacturing and electrical and water all declined. From January to March 2024, the total profit of the mining industry was 296.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared with that from January to February 2024, the total profit of the manufacturing industry was 1,017.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and the total profit of the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry was 192.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%. From January to March 2024, the cumulative growth rate of total profits in the manufacturing industry and electricity and water supply decreased by 9.5 and 23.1 percentage points, respectively, compared with the first two months of 2024.
From the perspective of the contribution to the profit growth of industrial enterprises, the manufacturing industry has the largest contribution to the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises, the mining industry has reduced the drag on the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises, and the pull of electricity and water on the profit growth rate has decreased slightly. In terms of sub-items, from January to March 2024, the profits of manufacturing enterprises drove the profits of industrial enterprises to rise by 5.2%, down 5.8 percentage points from 11% in January-February 2024, the profits of mining enterprises dragged down the profits of industrial enterprises by 4.7%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared with the first two months of 2024, and the profits of electric and water enterprises drove the profits of industrial enterprises to increase by 3.8%, and their contribution to the cumulative growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared with the first two months of 2024.
The pull of all sub-items of the manufacturing industry on the total profit decreased compared with the previous two months. The equipment manufacturing industry and the consumer goods manufacturing industry have boosted the cumulative profit growth rate of industrial enterprises, and the resource goods manufacturing industry has turned into a drag on the profit growth rate. Specifically, the cumulative profit of the resource manufacturing industry from January to March 2024 decreased by 18.3% year-on-year, dragging down the total profit by 2.5 percentage points, which was significantly lower than the increase of 0.8 percentage points from the total profit from January to February 2024. From January to March, the total profit growth rate of the consumer goods manufacturing industry was 10.9% year-on-year, driving the total profit of industrial enterprises to increase by 2.6 percentage points, which was lower than the 3.6 percentage point increase in the total profit from January to February. From January to March 2024, the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 18% year-on-year, driving the total profit of industrial enterprises to increase by 4.9 percentage points, the highest among all sub-items from January to March. The equipment manufacturing industry is continuing to play the role of "ballast stone" for profit growth. From a structural point of view, from January to March 2024, the proportion of equipment manufacturing profits in all manufacturing profits increased to 45% from 40.3% in the first two months of 2024, and the proportion of consumer goods manufacturing profits in the total profits of all manufacturing industries fell to 37.8% from 43.3% in the previous two months. From January to March, the ratio of resource goods manufacturing profits to total manufacturing profits increased by 0.5 percentage points to 15.6% from 15.1% in the previous two months. Note: According to the definition of the National Bureau of Statistics, the equipment manufacturing industry includes: metal products industry, general equipment manufacturing industry, special equipment manufacturing industry, automobile manufacturing industry, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry, instrument manufacturing industry, a total of 8 major industries; There are 13 major industries in furniture, paper and paper products, printing and recording media reproduction, cultural, educational, art, sports and recreational goods manufacturing, medicine, and chemical fibers. In addition, we classify six major industries: petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products, rubber and plastics, non-metallic minerals, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, as resource goods manufacturing industry.
In terms of industries, with the gradual implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and the trade-in policy of consumer goods, the profits of high-tech manufacturing industry will achieve rapid growth from January to March 2024. From January to March, the profit of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 32% year-on-year, driving the total profit to increase by 1.7 percentage points, and the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry realized a profit of 100.85 billion yuan from January to March, a year-on-year increase of 82.5%, driving the total profit by 3.2 percentage points. Rail, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing profits increased by 45.8% year-on-year, driving the total profit by 0.3 percentage points. From January to March 2024, the ferrous metal mining and dressing industry in the resource products manufacturing industry performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 103.8% in profit, driving the total profit up by 0.6 percentage points.
3 Corporate debt ratios mostly increased In March 2024, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises was 57.3%, a slight increase from the previous month. By industry category, the asset-liability ratio of the mining industry was 57.1% in March, unchanged from the previous month. The asset-liability ratio of the manufacturing industry was 56.6% in March, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the asset-liability ratio of the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry was 60% in March, down 0.1 percentage points from February. In terms of the types of enterprises, except for state-controlled enterprises, the asset-liability ratios of foreign-invested, joint-stock and private industrial enterprises have all increased. Among them, the asset-liability ratio of private enterprises increased slightly to 59.4% in March from 58.9% in February, and the asset-liability ratio of foreign-invested enterprises increased to 52.6% from 52.3% in February.
4 Risk Warning
First, geopolitical risks exceed expectations, second, macroeconomic risks are lower than expected, and third, overseas markets fluctuate sharply.
This article is from the report "Comments on the Profit Data of Industrial Enterprises: The Growth Rate Declines in the Short Term, and the High-tech Manufacturing Industry Grows Fast" released by the Huafu Securities Research Institute on April 28, 2024.
Analyst:
燕翔， S0210523050003
许茹纯， S0210523060005
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