Image source: Photo.com
The support of environmental protection policies and the enhancement of consumers' environmental awareness have promoted the development of new energy vehicles, and their market share continues to expand, while at the same time, fuel vehicles are facing pressure from declining market share and intensified competition. But I never expected that the fuel vehicles that were once "as good as the sky" would be overtaken by new energy vehicles so quickly!
Recently, the Passenger Association released the data of the car market from April 1 to 14. In terms of the retail market, according to the data, the passenger car market retailed 516,000 units, down 11% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month. In terms of new energy vehicles, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market reached 260,000 units, an increase of 32% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month.
The figure of "260,000 retail sales of new energy vehicles in the market" means that the retail proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in China has officially exceeded 50%, reaching 50.39%! This marks that new energy vehicles have officially become the mainstream of the market, and the era of fuel vehicles is quietly coming to an end.
In the wholesale market, according to the data, passenger car manufacturers nationwide wholesaled 534,000 units, an increase of 13% year-on-year and a decrease of 9% from the same period last month. In terms of new energy vehicles, passenger car manufacturers nationwide wholesaled 268,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 43% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month.
Similarly, the wholesale proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in China officially exceeded 50%, reaching 50.19%!
On the 16th of last month, Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, predicted at the 100 Forum (2024) that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may exceed 50% in the next three months, or even higher, forming a dominant position of new energy vehicles in the market. The goal of new energy vehicles breaking through 50% was achieved in less than three months and in more than 20 days, surpassing Wang Chuanfu's prediction.
At the same time, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and on the other hand, the market share of fuel vehicles continues to decline. According to the data, in 2023, SAIC-GM's sales fell by 14.5%, SAIC-Volkswagen fell by 8%, and Guangqi Honda fell by 13.7%. This year, this momentum has shown an accelerating trend, and the terminal sales of joint venture fuel vehicles in March can be described as a rout, with Guangqi Honda Accord falling by 72.6%, GAC Toyota Camry falling by 59.2%, FAW Toyota Corolla falling by 54.4%, and SAIC Volkswagen Lavida falling by 36.4%.
Looking back at the development of the new energy vehicle industry in mainland China from the perspective of "the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 50%":
-- Production and sales of new energy vehicles
In terms of the output of new energy vehicles, benefiting from preferential policies, the mainland new energy vehicle market has developed rapidly since 2014, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly; Subsequently, in 2016 and 2017, affected by the subsidy fraud incident and the regression of subsidies, the growth rate of production and sales slowed down. In 2021 and beyond, with the extension of the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have grown rapidly, and in 2023, the output of new energy vehicles will be 9.587 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%.
In terms of sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles, in 2014, private purchases of new energy vehicles began to appear in the mainland, which also opened the first year of new energy vehicles in the mainland. In November 2015, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in mainland China accounted for more than 1% in the overall automotive industry for the first time, and mainland China also became the world's largest new energy vehicle market in this year. According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China (the proportion of national new energy vehicle sales in the total national automobile sales) reached 35.7% in 2023, a significant increase from 2022.
Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that the penetration rate of the domestic new energy vehicle market will continue to rise rapidly until 2026 and occupy a dominant position in the market by 2026. Among them, the penetration rate will be 40% in 2024, 50% in 2025, and more than 50% in 2026. By 2030, the penetration rate of the domestic new energy vehicle market is expected to reach 70%.
The Federation predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainland China will reach 40% in 2024, which means that for every 100 new cars sold, 40 will be new energy vehicles, which means that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 12 million in 2024 according to the scale of 30 million production and sales in China's auto market in 2023.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
At the same time, the Prospective Industry Research Institute also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial research reports, industrial planning, park planning, industrial investment, industrial mapping, smart investment promotion system, industry status certificate, IPO consulting/fundraising and investment feasibility study, and specialized and special new small giant declaration. To quote the content of this article in any public information disclosure such as prospectus and annual report, formal authorization from Qianzhan Industry Research Institute is required.
More in-depth industry analysis is available in the [Prospective Economist APP], and you can also communicate and interact with 500+ economists/senior industry researchers. More enterprise data, enterprise information, and enterprise development are all in the [Qichamao APP], the most cost-effective and most comprehensive enterprise query platform.