On April 15, Iran's foreign minister said in a phone call with his Chinese counterpart that Iran is willing to exercise restraint and has no intention of further escalating the situation. Israel understood this, and the embassy in China immediately held a press conference, saying that Israel would not fight back against Iran, but only by proxy. Now, the melon-eating masses who are waiting to see Israel strike at Iran may be disappointed. #MCN首发激励计划 ##伊以冲突#
So, is Israel capable of striking Iran proper? Absolutely. In addition to sabotaging Iran's nuclear facilities with cyberviruses or agents, the IDF could theoretically strike Iran with Jericho-2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles and Bethlehem-2 cruise missiles on Dolphin-class submarines. The problem is that although these two missiles have sufficient range, they are likely to be equipped with nuclear warheads, which are treasures at the bottom of the box, and it is impossible to replace them with conventional warheads in the short term, so the heavy task of bombing Iran has to be handed over to the Israeli Air Force.
The F-35 must be used for bombing by the Air Force, because it has to pass through Jordan and Iraq on the way, and it also has to face Iran's air defense fire network, and non-stealth fighters are not competent. Iraq is easy to say, the airspace is basically American, Jordan is a little troublesome, this time it helped intercept Iranian missiles and drones, this is a hard-won Arab friend, Israel of course can not pit teammates, send non-stealth fighters swaggering through Jordanian airspace.
Some people say that the stealth combat radius of the F-35 is not enough, and the auxiliary fuel tank is not stealth, but in fact, this is technically very easy to solve, just use internal oil to attack, blow up Iran, and land directly at the US military Assad air base in Iraq. The question is can the United States agree?
Let's take a look at the origin of this base first. The Assad airbase was built in the 80s of the last century. In 2003, the United States took over after launching the Iraq War, and in December 2011, the U.S. military handed it over to the Iraqi security forces. In 2014, the U.S. military redeployed here in the name of fighting the extremist group Islamic State. The real purpose of the US military is to take the opportunity to cut off Iran's real land aid channels to Syria and Lebanon and cut off the "Shiite arc". On January 3, 2020, the U.S. military killed Major General Soleimani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, with an MQ-9 Reaper drone deployed at Assad Air Base.
The three red circles are the three Iranian-Syrian highways, and the yellow circles are the US military Assad air base
In addition to the Assad air base, the US military has also established two major bases at the Harab Alghir airport in northeastern Syria and the Tanf area in southeastern Syria, both under the pretext of fighting the "Islamic State". In this way, the three main highways between Iran and Syria, south, middle and north, are all controlled by the US military. The southeastern part of Syria is deserted, and the southern highway can be completely blocked by a single US military base; although the northeastern part of Syria is an agricultural area and is relatively densely populated, it is occupied by the Kurds, so it is not difficult to block the northern highway; except for the central highway, which is completely controlled by the Syrian government forces in Syria, the US military must cut off the part of this highway in Iraq, and the Assad air base is right next to this highway.
Some people may ask: It seems that this Assad base is only used to contain Iran, so why not use it with the Israeli Air Force? In fact, the relationship between the United States and Iran is very complicated, and it is not a permanent mortal enemy. As a descendant of the British Empire, the United States, as the "-stirring stick of the earth," has always pursued offshore balancing in the Middle East, that is, it does not allow any Middle Eastern country to dominate alone. This is reflected in the US-Iran relationship, which is unpredictable and unpredictable.
Before World War II, Iran was the sphere of influence of Britain and the Soviet Union, and in order to gain independence, Iran had close relations with Germany. After the outbreak of World War II, in order to contain Germany, the United States decided to aid the Soviet Union on a large scale, and Iran was precisely the safest way to aid the Soviet Union, so after the British and Soviet occupation of Iran, the United States gave Iran a lot of aid. After the end of World War II, the Soviet Union did not leave Iran, the United States issued a threat of force, and Stalin was forced to withdraw Soviet troops. Being on the front line against the Soviet Union, the Pahlavi dynasty became America's closest ally in the Middle East, with Israel second in line.
In the more than 40 years since the Islamic Revolution in Iran, US-Iran relations have fallen to a low point, but during the Iran-Iraq war, the United States also secretly sold weapons to Iran to curb Saddam's regional ambitions. When Iran expands abroad and wants to create a "Shiite arc", the United States will also strike hard, but it is basically Iran's foreign forces and has never attacked Iran itself. Why? Of course, to keep Iran and use it to contain the Saudi-led Sunnis.
In short, what the United States wants is a shrinking Iran, an Iran that can be on a par with Saudi Arabia and other countries, not an Iran that is completely dead, so the United States will not allow Iran to be too strong, nor will it allow Iran to be too weak. Most importantly, the United States also wants an Iran with deteriorating relations with China and Russia, so that it can drive Chinese and Russian influence out of the Middle East. And helping Israel to carry out air strikes on Iran will obviously push Iran completely towards China and Russia.
That is why the United States opposes Israel's attack on Iran itself, and if it has to fight, it must also notify the United States, why? Of course, it is to give Iran an early warning, so that Iran and Israel can join hands to put on another big show, so that Israel will also fight back, and Iran will not lose much, just as Iran notified the United States in advance before launching the missile this time. Four years ago, when Iran reported that Lymani had been killed and attacked the US military base Assad with missiles, it also notified the United States in advance. It can be seen that the United States and Iran are very well aware of each other's Middle East strategy and bottom line, and the two sides have a certain tacit strategic understanding.
Therefore, don't look at the Israeli Air Force now, and the wartime cabinet is shouting, but the United States will not help and will not allow Israel to bomb Iran itself, because this will undermine its own grand strategy in the Middle East. During the Gulf War, Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles at Israel, and the Israeli army wanted to fight back, but the United States forced them down, because once the Israeli army entered the war, the Arab allies who had helped the US military attack Iraq might turn their guns on Israel. This time, too, the United States will most likely suppress Israel's impulse to war, and at most allow Israel to sabotage Iran's nuclear facilities with computer viruses or agents. In return, the United States will inevitably provide Israel with large amounts of military aid so that the Israeli army can vent its anger on Allah in Gaza and Lebanon.