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On March 10, 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran, the "old enemies of the Middle East", announced that they had reached an agreement on the resumption of diplomatic relations under the mediation of China.
The two sides agreed to reopen embassies, exchange ambassadors, and immediately restart bilateral trade and investment cooperation.
Since the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, there has been a long history of bitterness between Saudi Arabia and Iran, during which the United States has intervened on several occasions without achieving substantial progress.
The news of the "Saudi-Iranian reconciliation with Beijing" shocked the world like a thunderclap, but it also completely put the so-called "Middle East strategy" of the United States in an embarrassing situation.
Recently, the United States has taken advantage of the continued turmoil in the Palestinian-Israeli situation to constantly stir up the geopolitical pattern in the Middle East and try to re-change Saudi Arabia's "position" in the Middle East.
With the situation in the Middle East is highly tense, can the United States achieve its strategic goals?
1. Saudi-Iranian reconciliation in Beijing
In March last year, the practice of 'Chinese diplomacy' in the Middle East ushered in the "fruits of victory".
That is, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations between the two countries and actively seek to promote bilateral exchanges and cooperation.
The joint statement issued by Saudi Arabia, China and Iran in Beijing quickly attracted wide attention from the international media, and some foreign media even called the outcome of the negotiations "great changes in the Middle East".
Some U.S. media commented with a little joking: "It is indeed in the interest of the United States to repair relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but the influence of the United States in the Middle East is being replaced." ”
As a matter of fact, the mainland's participation in the mediation talks on Saudi-Iranian relations is based on the accumulation of five rounds of Baghdad talks between the two sides.
The eventual normalization of Saudi-Iranian relations is the result of a combination of internal and external factors.
However, the fact that Saudi Arabia and Iran were able to reach an agreement on the resumption of diplomatic relations within five days was also due to the mainland's ingenious arrangements in terms of the content of the meeting and the specifications of the negotiations.
Equality, respect and consideration of each other's core interests are also important factors in promoting the realization of peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In terms of internal factors, after decades-long "quasi-cold war" between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two countries have long been tired of the confrontation between one and the other.
At the same time, the confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran will lead the entire Middle East region into a tense game, and the result will be that the overall interests will be damaged.
With the profound changes in the global economic situation and industrial structure, Saudi Arabia and Iran are unwilling to continue to expend a lot of resources or energy in ideological or past grievances that have no practical significance.
From the perspective of practical interests, Saudi Arabia expects to increase its bargaining chips with the United States and Western countries by easing relations with Iran.
In order to create a favorable regional environment for the gradual realization of its "Development Vision 2035", Iran urgently needs to find an opportunity to break out of isolation.
In terms of external factors, the U.S. strategic presence in the Middle East has been weakening since the Biden administration took office.
In particular, under the influence of regional events such as the "US withdrawal from Afghanistan", the intensification of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the "toughness" of the Houthis in Yemen and the military deterrence of the United States and the United Kingdom, the voice of the United States and Western countries in the Middle East has been seriously weakened.
On the other hand, after the Baghdad negotiations stalled, Saudi Arabia and Iran urgently need to find a neutral country that can uphold an objective and impartial position to continue to play a mediating role.
In the end, they chose to accept the mainland as a mediator and reached an agreement, which is enough to prove that the mainland has the international influence to provide an international mediation platform to the conflicting parties.
2. Reasons for the failure of U.S. mediation
If there is one word to describe the reason for the success of the Saudi-Iranian peace talks, then the word must be "goodwill".
This goodwill is not only reflected in the desire of Saudi Arabia and Iran to end the confrontation and focus on the beautiful vision of peace and development.
At the same time, it is also reflected in the mainland's diplomatic efforts to implement the "Global Development Initiative" and actively promote peace talks on the issue of international conflicts.
However, for the United States, which has been involved in mediating the Saudi-Iranian dispute for decades, "putting American interests first" is still the first consideration in participating in the peace talks.
Even though many US media have called the "Saudi-Iranian Beijing rapprochement" an "unexpected circumstance" that is in line with US interests, this has obviously not dispelled US politicians' concerns about the mainland's rising influence in the Middle East.
After all, this is not in the interest of the United States to adopt a policy of maximum pressure on Iran, and it is likely to provoke disagreements between Saudi Arabia and the United States.
However, the reality is that there are indeed some differences between Saudi Arabia and the United States, such as the "Khashoggi murder".
Saudi Arabia and the United States have differences, and the contradictions between Iran and the United States are even more difficult to reconcile.
Since the United States withdrew from the "Iran nuclear talks" during the Trump era, the relationship between Iran and the United States has taken a sharp turn for the worse.
In addition, the subsequent assassination of senior Iranian generals by the United States can be regarded as completely pushing US-Iran relations into the abyss.
The U.S. side keeps saying that "easing relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a priority for the United States," but the real subtext is that "preventing the easing of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a priority for the United States." ”
On the one hand, the United States uses the 'petrodollar' as a shackle to "bind" Saudi Arabia, and on the other hand, it uses the "Iranian nuclear issue" to adopt a policy of maximum pressure on Iran.
Is there any country in the world that is more suitable to be a mediator in the Saudi-Iranian negotiations?
It is not so much that the United States' long-term involvement in the Saudi-Iranian negotiations is to mediate bilateral differences and ease contradictions, but rather that the United States is deliberately sabotaging the Saudi-Iranian peace talks in order to achieve its control over the Middle East region.
In fact, the biggest loss caused to the United States by the "Saudi-Iranian Beijing rapprochement" is that the countries in the Middle East have clearly realized through this incident: without the participation of the United States, the countries in the Middle East can also use the mediation of other neutral countries to achieve the relaxation of bilateral relations.
Third, the undercurrent of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is surging
Since the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli situation in the current round, the geopolitical pattern in the Middle East has once again entered a tense tug-of-war, and the fierce game outside the battlefield has not stopped for a moment.
However, compared with the United States exaggerating the so-called "European security threat" to pull some European allies to aid Ukraine, the United States' crazy aid to Israel has undoubtedly aroused a high degree of vigilance among countries in the Middle East.
And America's goal of helping Israel win recognition in the Middle East stalled.
In the midst of a serious humanitarian crisis in parts of Palestine, continued U.S. aid to Israel will only send a signal to other countries in the Middle East.
That is, any country in the Middle East may be the next 'Palestine,' and the United States will most likely become its enemy.
On April 13, local time, Iran carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel.
However, Saudi Arabia is involved in the countries that "assisted in intercepting Iranian drones" announced by the Israeli media.
The news of "Saudi interception of Iranian drones" came from the Israeli public broadcaster, citing Saudi "informed sources".
However, the news was quickly denied by Saudi Arabia's Al-Arabiya TV, and Saudi officials did not make any official statements on the matter.
However, judging from the tight-lipped attitude of the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran on this matter, at least the Saudi side absolutely does not want to get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Fourth, will Saudi Arabia "change its mind".
Since Saudi Arabia and Iran reached an agreement on the resumption of diplomatic relations in Beijing last year, the United States has been trying to take the opportunity to change Saudi Arabia's diplomatic stance.
After the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli situation, the United States wanted to weaken the 'establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran' by promoting the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
However, as early as 2002, Saudi Arabia put forward an "Arab initiative" announcing that it would recognize Israel on the condition that Israel must withdraw its troops from the occupied areas.
and the recognition of Palestinian statehood in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital, which is clearly a "harsh condition" that Israel can hardly accept.
To this day, Saudi Arabia still chooses to adhere to the basic principle of "withdrawing troops" and "recognizing the state of Palestine" on the issue of recognizing Israeli statehood.
At a sensitive time when the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is undergoing profound changes, Saudi Arabia is obviously not going to make any compromise on principled issues with the United States and Israel in order to maintain its influence in the Middle East.
It doesn't matter whether the Saudis have actually intercepted Iranian missiles or drones within their territory.
The purpose of the Israeli media to hype up the so-called "Saudi Arabia helping Israel" is to undermine the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
However, this will not have a substantial impact on Saudi-Iranian relations.
Of course, the United States' continued efforts to add fuel to the fire and obstruct the peace process in the Middle East have made Saudi Arabia think more deeply about the future development of US-Saudi relations.
In the next geopolitical game in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia will never easily give up the agreement reached with Iran on the resumption of diplomatic relations.
At the same time, it will give priority to its own interests in international exchanges, rather than choosing sides between China and the United States.
summary
The "Saudi-Iranian Beijing Reconciliation" is a successful mediation case under the framework of the Global Development Initiative put forward by the mainland.
Its greatest significance lies in providing a new way for the Middle East region and the whole world to resolve international conflicts.
Replacing the "repression, sanctions, and Cold War mentality" with "equality, respect, and common interests" is the key reason for the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The vision of peaceful development is the greatest endogenous driving force for the conclusion of bilateral peace talks.
As the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to escalate, the United States' bottomless aid measures to Israel have thoroughly aroused the high vigilance of countries in the Middle East.
Its attempt to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel to weaken the achievements of the "establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran" has also led Saudi Arabia to re-examine its development relationship with the United States.
It is believed that in the next step, Saudi Arabia will make choices and actions that are more in line with its own interests in international and regional affairs, rather than simply following the trend of the United States.
References:
"U.S. media reports on Saudi Arabia's "Beijing reconciliation": the United States is both happy to see détente, but also worried about the independence of its allies"2023-03-11 The Paper
"Saudi Arabia Gang Stops Iranian Missiles?Foreign Media Says Differently, The Truth Is Confusing" 2024.4.18 China.com