The Singapore Foreign Minister has made clear ASEAN's position on the South China Sea issue to the Philippines. At the same time, Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also begun to take action and will visit Indonesia and Cambodia in succession. If Marcos doesn't stop, he will pay the price. #军史观察团#
Against the backdrop of tensions in the South China Sea, Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian visited the Philippines recently. From the perspective of time, Vivian's trip coincided with the change of power in Singapore. The Philippines invited Vivian to visit at this time, and it cannot be ruled out that it is trying to win over Singapore before China.
However, judging by the results, it is clear that the Philippines is going to be disappointed. After meeting with the Philippine foreign minister, Vivian expounded his two-point position on the South China Sea issue at a press conference. First, Singapore supported the peaceful settlement of disputes and would not take sides; Vivian believes that although ASEAN members are facing different realities and have adopted different ways of responding, ASEAN can only deal with these issues internally if it wants to maintain unity and cohesion.
It is not difficult to see that although Vivian said it very tactfully, it is not difficult to understand what he wants to say. To put it bluntly, Vivian is striking at the Philippines, accusing the latter of endangering ASEAN's interests by colluding with external forces to meddle in the South China Sea issue and escalate regional tensions. In addition to listening to the voices of other ASEAN member states, the Philippines also needs to actively engage in dialogue with China.
It is worth noting that, in addition to Singapore, a number of ASEAN countries, including Indonesia and Malaysia, have previously stated similar positions on the South China Sea issue. This shows that Vivian's visit to the Philippines this time is equivalent to repeating ASEAN's position to the Philippines in person. If the Philippines still does not listen, other ASEAN member states cannot rule out joint pressure on the Philippines to reduce the risk of a possible military conflict in the region.
Of course, the advice of ASEAN countries to the Philippines can manage risks to a certain extent, but it is obviously not enough. At the beginning, the Philippines only let the US military use a few more military bases in the Philippines, but not long ago, the US military has deployed medium-range missiles in the Philippines. All these moves are pushing the Philippines to launch more provocative actions.
Therefore, at a time of tension, Foreign Minister Wang Yi is also taking diplomatic action. Starting from April 18, Wang Yi will visit two ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Cambodia, one after another.
Not long ago, Indonesian President-elect Prabowo made the first stop of his foreign visit to China. And such an itinerary just proves that his earlier statement is true, that is, he will continue the friendly policy of the previous Indonesian government towards China. It is foreseeable that Wang Yi's visit will certainly make China-Nepal relations more stable. Indonesia is quite influential in ASEAN, and in a sense, the interaction between China and Nepal can be regarded as a kind of weather vane for ASEAN. Similarly, Cambodia has long pursued a friendly policy toward China. As early as when Cambodian Army Commander Mao Sophan visited China in March this year, he expressed to the Chinese side in person that Cambodia would support China in firmly safeguarding its core interests.
It is obvious that Wang Yi's visit to ASEAN cannot avoid the South China Sea issue. By choosing this point in time to consolidate relations with ASEAN countries, China wants to tell the Philippines that if the country insists on going its own way on the South China Sea issue, it will only run counter to regional countries even more.
In response to tensions in the South China Sea, China and Vietnam have previously agreed to establish a maritime hotline. Then, Wang Yi's trip may not be a discussion with Indonesia and Cambodia about the establishment of similar mechanisms. In this way, no matter what unexpected situations occur in the South China Sea, China can quickly communicate and coordinate with most ASEAN countries. If the Philippines deliberately provokes a conflict that triggers it, I believe other ASEAN countries will be able to understand the countermeasures taken by China.
A few days ago, during a phone call between the Chinese and US defense ministers, China clearly informed the US side that regional countries have the wisdom and ability to resolve the South China Sea issue and do not need US interference. Whether it is Singapore's foreign minister's face-to-face advice to the Philippines or Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Indonesia and Cambodia, they are all manifestations of the region's countries actively solving problems. If Marcos does not stop in such a situation and waits for the Philippines, it will only be isolated by regional countries.
Moreover, during the large-scale joint exercises that will begin in late April, as many as 29 other countries will send representatives to China to attend the Western Pacific Naval Forum, including the three countries of the United States, Japan, and Australia, which have been throwing knives to the Philippines in the past period. Such a move shows that the external forces on which the Philippines relies have no intention of confronting China head-on. Their support for the Philippines is nothing more than a "proxy" that can be discarded at any time.
In short, it's too late for Marcos to stop now. Otherwise, the next time we discuss with ASEAN countries, I am afraid that we will not be unpredictable, and we will have no choice but to take action.