It would not be wise for Iran to start a direct all-out war with Israel, but it could not fail to respond to the blatant bombing of embassies as an extension of its territory.
To this end, on the evening of April 13, Iran launched a large number of missiles and drones into a number of Israeli cities, according to CCTV News reported on the 15th, Iran's Iranian state TV English channel claimed that Iran also used hypersonic missiles against Israel, and hypersonic missiles hit targets.
Judging from Iran's statement, Iran does not intend to escalate the situation, but has the intention of "stopping the point". After the Iranian attack, Iran has repeatedly declared that its retaliation against Israel is over and that it will not launch new attacks against Israel. At the same time, Iran has said it is satisfied with the results of its retaliation.
But Iran's attitude does not shape Israel's actions, so how should Israel respond?
First, Israel was quick to claim that Iran had inflicted minor losses on Israel and that the drones and missiles launched by Iran had been largely intercepted. However, whether or not Israel intends to downplay the impact of Iran's attack, Israel's losses cannot be ignored. According to the Global Times, citing Israel's "Ynetnews" news network, Rem Aminoach, a former financial adviser to the Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff, estimated that Israel spent about $1 billion a night to defend itself against an Iranian attack.
Then, whether it is to maintain Israel's deterrence or consider the losses caused by Iran to Israel, with Israel's past style, Israel will most likely have to vent its own anger.
However, how to retaliate against Iran, Israel appears to be "undecided".
According to a report on the 15th, Israeli officials said on the 14th that the Israeli prime minister's wartime cabinet supports retaliation against Iran, but there are differences between the Israeli prime minister's wartime cabinet on the scale of retaliation and when to retaliate.
The Israeli side is so hesitant, and the attitude of the United States is crucial.
After the Iranian attack, the United States announced its involvement in the interception of Iranian drones and missiles. However, the United States is reluctant to enter into a conflict with Iran. According to a report on the 14th, during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the 13th, US President Joe Biden said that the United States would neither participate in any Israeli counterattack against Iran, nor would it support Israel. According to CCTV, on April 14, during the phone call between the US and Israeli defense ministers, US Secretary of Defense Austin reiterated this attitude, but promised to continue to take all actions to protect the security of the United States and Israel.
The United States has fulfilled its promise to protect Israel, but without American support, Israel may not be able to retaliate against Iran as much as Israel wants.
For Israel, doubling down on the military is still a common means of maintaining Israel's military deterrence, however, since the Israeli army has attacked Gaza, Israel has weakened the Israeli army's deterrent because of the performance of the fighting in Gaza. Now, if Israel's response to Iran is limited, or if Israel behaves "too soft" toward Iran, there will be resentment within Israel, and anger against Netanyahu will intensify among Israel's far-right hawks.
Prior to this, Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir had threatened Netanyahu that he should not remain Israeli prime minister if he ended the war without attacking Rafah. For Netanyahu, the next step is undoubtedly a serious challenge.
Of course, although the United States claims that it will not participate in Israel's retaliation against Iran, as a close ally of Israel, the United States still does not forget to give Israel a "big gift".
A few days ago, the G7 issued a threat of sanctions against Iran. According to reference news reports, the G7 leader said on the 14th that the G7 will fully support Israel and consider imposing tougher sanctions on Iran. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is also considering imposing more sanctions on Iran's drone and missile programs.
As far as the United States is concerned, since Iran does not seek to escalate the conflict, and the United States, as an ally of Israel, does not want to see Iran and Israel go to war, leading Western countries to sanction Iran can be seen as giving the United States itself a "step".