In 2024, which type of asset is the most reliable for personal family financial management?
In 2024, gold will shine brightly and become a shining star in the allocation of family property. Although only a few months have passed, the value of gold is already increasing. For those of you who have been following my views, you may remember that since 2017 and 18, I have been paying attention to the price of gold, because it is like a mirror, reflecting the changes in international finance and finance.
Gold, as an important commodity, is not only related to the macro aspect of China's real estate, but also a barometer of global economic trends. In order to gain insight into the macro trend of China's economy, we must deeply study the fluctuations of international financial commodity prices, and gold is undoubtedly one of the best.
The focus on gold is not just because of its recent gains, but because it has shown the potential to invest in a solid and rewarding year in 2024. This point should be fresh in the memory of friends who are familiar with my real estate views, especially those who have heard the first issue of "Lao Yang's Top Ten Prophecies" in 2024. In the third issue of this year, I further explored the strategies and recommendations for personal investment and financial management in 2024, analyzed the investment value of gold, and recommended gold as the preferred asset.
The picture below shows the notes taken during the recording of the program at that time.
Today, let's once again sort out and summarize several key factors that will affect the trend of international gold prices in 2024. First of all, the U.S. interest rate cut and many central banks around the world have undoubtedly injected positive factors into the gold market. Interest rate cuts are a positive boost for gold. Secondly, the decline in global economic growth provided strong support for the rise in gold prices. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar is also one of the important factors driving the rise in gold prices, as the international gold price is denominated in US dollars. The decline in the US dollar is good for gold prices, and it is expected that the US dollar may fall back below 100 by the end of the year, which will open up more room for gold prices to rise.
At the same time, international conflicts and frictions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, will also continue to benefit the gold market. These conflicts have exacerbated uncertainty in the market and boosted safe-haven demand, which in turn has driven gold prices higher. In addition, the world's major stock markets, especially those in Europe and the United States, have risen too much in the past few years, and there are bubbles, which may cause the global stock market to shift its center of gravity downward in the shock this year. This trend will also be beneficial for gold prices.
It is worth mentioning that many central banks around the world have continued to buy gold in the past few years, which is an important process of de-dollarization. The central bank's large-scale purchase of gold has led to a shortage of gold supply and an increase in prices. Overall, the international gold price has risen by 18% this year, especially the recent international gold price once exceeded 2,300 US dollars per ounce, constantly creating the highest closing price in history. At the beginning of the year, I expected the international gold price to stand above 2,200 points, and now it has clearly exceeded this expectation.
So, is it a good time to buy gold? I think the space to buy gold is relatively limited at the moment, and there may be no more than 5% increases. However, it is also unlikely that gold will fall back below 2,200 points. If the international gold price can recover to about 2200 points in the next two months, it may be a good time to enter the market again. For Chinese investors, gold is usually denominated in RMB, and changes in the exchange rate differential between China and the United States will also have a certain impact on gold prices. Personally, I believe that the US dollar is likely to weaken this year, while the RMB is likely to remain stable or slightly stronger, so exchange rate changes will have little impact on gold prices.
In conclusion, gold has shown its unique charm in 2024 as the preferred asset for household property allocation. Under the combined effect of multiple factors such as the global economic slowdown, the US interest rate cut, the weakening of the US dollar, international conflicts and stock market shocks, the gold market will continue to maintain a stable investment value. However, investors also need to be aware of the situation when buying gold and seize the right time to maximize the return on their investment.