Hello friends.
As I foresaw, on April 11, two events occurred in Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States:
First, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech to the U.S. Congress in front of all members of the Democratic and Republican parties. It is said that Fumio Kishida's speech was also unanimously praised by lawmakers from both parties. So, what kind of signal did Fumio Kishida send to the US Congress?
Second, after Fumio Kishida's speech, on the evening of April 11 local time, the heads of state of the United States, Japan and the Philippines held a summit in Washington and reached several consensuses.
First of all, the United States, Japan and the Philippines should step up patrols in the South China Sea. In the past, we often said that Japan is a country in the East China Sea, and whether Japan is tired of running thousands of miles to attack the South China Sea? Now it is no longer important whether it is "tired or not," and it will officially join the patrols of the United States, Japan, and the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Not only that, but according to the information we have so far, not only Japan, but also the United Kingdom and Australia will join in the next step.
As we said about more than 10 years ago, there may be a situation in which the navy of all nations may emerge in the South China Sea, and the risk of a larger, more subtle, and more direct military conflict is not so much in the Taiwan Strait.
Second, the United States and the Philippines yesterday signed another agreement on "Global Infrastructure and Investment in the Luzon Corridor."
To put it bluntly, this agreement is actually the United States pulling a group of countries to throw money into the Philippines to help the Philippines build infrastructure near the Luzon Corridor.
On the one hand, this is to improve the infrastructure of the Philippines, and on the other hand, it is also to compensate the Philippines to offset the losses of the Philippines' withdrawal from the Belt and Road Initiative under pressure from the United States.
And this is also related to the strengthening of coordination between the United States and Japan after the conclusion of the US-Japan summit on April 10.
As I have stressed before, after the US-Japan summit, the United States will not only cover the Diaoyu Islands with nuclear forces, but also allow Japan to become a high-tech power.
To be honest, this is a blessing for the United States and a worry for the United States, and in the short term, the United States may taste the sweetness, because Japan is tied to the United States in terms of high technology, but in the long run, the United States will most likely taste the bitterness.
01
To get back to the point, the first point mentioned above is that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's speech in the US Congress won unanimous praise from members of both the Republican and Democratic parties in the Congress.
So what exactly did Fumio Kishida say that could make congressmen of both parties in the United States "unanimously praise"?
It is reported that Fumio Kishida made it clear that the United States is not isolated and that Japan is willing to work with the United States to confront all potential threats and risks.
To put it bluntly, this sentence is to tell the United States not to abandon Japan, that Japan is willing to be a pawn of the United States, and that Japan can do whatever it takes to spend money and contribute to losing its life.
Of course, there may be an element of exaggeration in my translation and interpretation, but this is the logic and original intention of Fumio Kishida.
In the face of such a "return for the favor," can the US congressmen not give encouragement with warm applause, and why should the United States not be happy to have such a little brother who is willing to saddle up the saddle and behind the horse, work hard, and even give his life to work hard for himself?
The above is the main message of Fumio Kishida to the US Congress. Of course, in the speech that followed, he also elaborated on these main messages, saying that China is not only a threat to the United States, but also a threat to Japan. But he also told the United States not to worry, because they will help the United States "block bullets" in East Asia.
Of course, this is my personal translation and interpretation, but we can see from this that Japan is not only showing its loyalty to the United States, but also using the United States to relieve itself.
This is because, if it directly collides with China, Japan is obviously alone, and even with the development of China's national and military strength, Japan is not necessarily China's opponent to a certain extent, so Japan wants to pull the United States in.
As for the United States, they also want to pull Japan in, so there is a common need between the United States and Japan, and this is also the basis for the security of the United States and Japan to be improved.
I would like to stress that on April 10, in addition to the enhancement of security between the United States and Japan, the enhancement of Japan's command system, logistics and supply system, and control system, especially the coverage of the Diaoyu Islands with nuclear capabilities, the United States and Japan will also carry out comprehensive high-tech cooperation.
The so-called "high-tech cooperation" is actually an all-round back door for Japan in the three major areas in which the United States implements the policy of small courtyards and high walls against China.
I would like to stress that the United States has forgotten that the United States is pleased with the United States in the short term in carrying out all-round high-tech cooperation, because Japan is the saddle for the United States.
But in the long run, the United States may be more worried than happy, and sit back and watch Japan grow. Japan has great potential for both nuclear and high-tech capabilities, but it is suppressed by the three non-nuclear principles and the control of the United States.
As a matter of fact, the US-Japan Security Treaty has had a dual role for more than 60 years, on the one hand, the United States uses Japan, and on the other hand, the United States restricts Japanese militarism or some right-wing forces.
But now, as both sides seek to contain China, the United States has been able to use the treaty to restrain Japan, or even to disappear. On the contrary, the use of Japan's practical functions is infinitely magnified. This will likely lead to Japan becoming a real high-tech country.
Previously, the United States has always regarded Japan as a major automobile country and a consumer goods producer, but if Japan becomes a high-tech power one day, the United States may re-control and suppress Japan as it did in the 80s of the last century.
By then, whether it is already too late is a matter for the future, and the United States, due to its short-sighted effect, cannot take care of this now.
Therefore, in his speech to Congress on April 11, Fumio Kishida showed great reciprocation for the United States.
02
At the trilateral summit of the United States, Japan and the Philippines on April 11, it was officially decided that the United States, Japan and the Philippines should strengthen patrols in the South China Sea.
The United States will naturally take advantage of this ironclad fact, and Japan and the Philippines are both among its seven major military allies in the world and the five major in the Asia-Pacific region, and Japan and the Philippines are iron-clad brothers, Japan is stronger, and the Philippines is willing to take the lead in the South China Sea.
In the past, the United States used Japan to create trouble at the Diaoyu Islands and the Philippines to create trouble at Scarborough Shoal. Recently, the United States has created another "Ren'ai Jiao" problem in its use of the Philippines.
China and the United States call the island differently, China calls it "Ren'ai Jiao" and the United States calls it "Second Thomas Reef".
The United States created the issue of "benevolence" in order to tie Japan and the Philippines tightly to its chariot.
At the same time, the United Kingdom and Australia, the seven major military allies of the United States in the world, will also join the cruising of the national navy, or multinational navy, in the South China Sea.
The United States has seven major military allies in the world and five major military allies in the Asia-Pacific region, and now except for South Korea, Thailand, and Canada, the other four countries have been tied to the United States on the South China Sea issue.
For this situation, the Chinese side should not be nervous, and second, it should pay close attention to it.
In recent times, and especially this week, it may be a historical coincidence that both Chinese society, as well as the Chinese economy itself and the external environment within it, are undergoing drastic changes.
03
At the same time, I would like to talk about German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to China tomorrow (April 13).
This is his second visit to China since taking office in 2021, the first visit was on November 4, 2022, and due to the epidemic, he went back and forth for a day without staying overnight.
This is his second visit to China, and Scholz will bring a large delegation of German businessmen. According to German media reports, the German business community is scrambling to sign up.
What does this mean?
In the words of Handelsblatt, the German business community clearly understands that German companies cannot decouple from China's economy, which once again proves that the German super economic minister's proposal that German companies complete the all-round decoupling from the Chinese market by 2027 has declared failure.
During his visit to China, Scholz will arrive in Chongqing on the 14th, Shanghai on the 15th, and Beijing on the 16th. When he arrives in Beijing, he will definitely meet with the Chinese leadership.
What kind of economic cooperation agreements will be reached between China and Germany at that time, and what are the differences between these cooperation and Sino-German economic cooperation over the past 40 years, or will they be basically the same?
In the past 40 years, Germany and China have carried out economic cooperation under the wind and sunshine, showing a positive trend, but now the geostrategy is more complicated, Germany has more or less sided with the Western countries led by the United States in terms of political and strategic interests, but it cannot get rid of China economically, and wants to maintain some independence in its own strategy.
This is reflected in the extent to which Scholz signed an economic cooperation agreement with China after coming to China is different from the past, and to what extent it is closer to the United States.
Another point is that it has been three days since Yellen's visit to China ended, but in the last three days, we have not received any clues from Washington, and she must still be carefully assessing things about China's so-called "overcapacity" and the suppression of China's new quality productivity.
Before his visit to China, Scholz also said that he was ready to talk to China about the issue of "overcapacity", because German cars are also affected by the so-called impact of China's electric vehicles.
But we have received information that Scholz is different from the United States to a considerable extent, and this is also a clue that we can observe during Scholz's trip to China starting tomorrow (April 13).
As for how to interpret and how to look ahead, you are welcome to lock our article.