hot spot
focus
01
Li Qiang meets with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
Premier Li Qiang met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on April 7. Li Qiang said that under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state, the current Sino-US relations have stabilized. China hopes that China and the United States will be partners rather than adversaries, and that they will respect each other, coexist peacefully and achieve win-win cooperation. Li Qiang pointed out that China and the United States, as the world's two largest economies, have deeply integrated economic interests, and strengthening economic and trade cooperation is of great significance to both sides' respective development and global economic growth. Yellen said that with the joint efforts of both sides, the U.S.-China relationship has become more stable. As the world's two largest economies, the United States and China should manage their bilateral economic relationship responsibly. The US appreciates the progress made in the US-China Economic Dialogue and cooperation, and does not seek to "decouple" from China.
Tsinghua Financial Review observes
The United States and China are the two largest economies in the world, Li Qiang believes that Sino-US relations have stabilized, Yellen pointed out that the US-China relationship has become more stable, the development trend of "stabilization" and "stability" between the two countries, the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries, and the global economic development will play a positive role in promoting the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries and the global economic development, and the further harmony of the relationship between the two countries will take more time and more running-in. Only on the basis of "seeking common ground while reserving differences" and paying attention to the common interests of both sides can the relations between the two countries go further. (Observer/Wang Mao)
grave
meeting
01
Central Bank: Intensify the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introduced
On April 3, 2024, the People's Bank of China issued a document saying that the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank in the first quarter of 2024 (the 104th in total) was held on March 29. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and continue to promote the economy to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth. It is necessary to accurately and effectively implement a prudent monetary policy, pay more attention to counter-cyclical adjustment, give better play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools, and strive to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and promote a virtuous cycle of the economy.
Tsinghua Financial Review observes
The central bank will continue to guide the reasonable growth and balanced supply of credit, keep the scale of social financing and money supply in line with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels, promote a moderate recovery in prices, and keep prices at a reasonable level. In addition, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side and build an institutional mechanism for finance to effectively support the real economy. From the perspective of different institutions, the meeting pointed out that it is necessary to guide large banks to play the role of the main force in the real economy of financial services, and promote small and medium-sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and main businesses. At the same time, the central bank will support banks to replenish capital, continue to increase support for key areas and weak links, and do a good job in science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance. (Observer/Zhou Mingyi)
grave
policy
01
The auto loan policy has been adjusted, and the loan can be disbursed in full according to the purchase price of the car
Recently, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration jointly issued the Notice on Adjusting Relevant Policies for Auto Loans (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The Notice clarifies that under the premise of compliance with laws and regulations and controllable risks, financial institutions can independently determine the maximum proportion of loans for self-use traditional power vehicles and self-use new energy vehicles based on the borrower's credit status and repayment ability, and may issue loans in full according to the purchase price of the car.
Tsinghua Financial Review observes
In order to implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, increase the financial support for automobile consumption, promote the trade-in of automobiles, and stabilize and expand automobile consumption, matters related to the automobile loan policy are hereby discussed. Encourage financial institutions to strengthen the innovation of financial products and services in combination with new cars, second-hand cars, car trade-ins and other sub-scenarios, and appropriately reduce or exempt the liquidated damages arising from the early settlement of loans in the process of car trade-in, so as to better support reasonable automobile consumption demand. Among them, for the scope of models that implement the new energy vehicle loan policy, financial institutions can implement it on the basis of the provisions of the "Measures for the Administration of Automobile Loans", according to the principles of voluntariness, prudence and risk control, and refer to the "Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. (Observer/Zhou Mingyi)
grave
affair
01
Gold prices hit another all-time high
On April 5, international precious metal futures closed sharply, COMEX gold futures closed up 1.76% at $2349.1 / ounce, a record high, up 4.95% for the week, and COMEX silver futures closed up 1.3% at $27.6 / ounce, up 10.77% for the week.
Tsinghua Financial Review observes
There are at least four reasons for the sharp rise in gold prices: First, it is a high probability event that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in 2024. Once the Fed cuts interest rates, the dollar will depreciate and the price of gold in dollar terms will rise. In fact, gold prices have risen sharply in anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Second, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and gold is considered a safe haven. Recently, the conflict between Israel and Iran has resumed, and the building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria was recently attacked by Israeli missiles, resulting in casualties. Third, there is an expectation of a slowdown in global economic growth, and investors tend to hold gold to maintain and increase its value. According to the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report, global GDP growth is expected to be 2.4% in 2024, compared to 2.6% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2022. Fourth, the world's major central banks increased their holdings of gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves and minimize their dependence on the US dollar.
It should be noted that there are also risks to the rise in the price of gold. Should market sentiment change, or if the global economy shows signs of recovery, gold prices could face the risk of a correction. In addition, the volatility of the gold market cannot be ignored. (Observer/Wang Mao)
important
numeral
01
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for March was 50.8%
On March 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in March was 50.8%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical point, and the level of manufacturing prosperity rebounded. At the same time, the non-manufacturing business activity index in March was 53.0%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to maintain an upward trend. After March 2023, the mainland PMI also had a contraction range of up to 5 months, and after a short stay in the expansion range in September of the same year, it fell back to the contraction range again. Whether the rebound in this round of PMI can be sustained has become the focus of attention of all parties.
Tsinghua Financial Review observes
From the perspective of the sub-items that make up the manufacturing PMI, the significant recovery in demand is the main reason why the PMI was able to reverse the contraction trend in March. On the demand side, the new orders index was 53% in March, up 4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to expansion for the first time in five months. New export orders, which represent external demand, not only returned to expansion territory for the first time in 12 months, but also rose sharply by 5.0% to 51.3%. While external demand is strong, domestic consumption has also been significantly boosted with the support of various favorable policies such as preferential taxes and fees. Next, the consumption situation is expected to continue to improve. (Observer/Zhou Mingyi)
02
The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 303,000 in March, far exceeding expectations
On April 5, local time, the latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the new non-farm payrolls in March were 303,000, far exceeding the expected value of 200,000, and the previous value was revised down to 270,000, with an average monthly net increase of 231,000 in the past 12 months. The data showed that the unemployment rate in the United States was flat at 3.8% in March, in line with expectations, and the wage level, one of the key indicators affecting the trend of inflation, increased by 4.1% year-on-year in March and 0.3% month-on-month, and the labor force participation rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 62.7%.
Tsinghua Financial Review observes
The U.S. non-farm payrolls data for March far exceeded expectations, suggesting that there is still a risk of a resurgence in U.S. inflation, leading market participants to speculate that the Fed may delay further interest rate cuts. The market will be watching the US inflation data more closely in order to look for trading clues. In addition, the U.S. presidential election will move forward later in 2024, which will help the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the market will evolve in the game. (Observer/Wang Mao)
This article is edited by Zhou Mingyi
Editor-in-charge丨Ding Kaiyan, Lan Yinfan
Preliminary trial丨Xu Lanying
Final Review丨Zhang Wei