This number is the only official account of the WeChat public account "Shi Kelang", the author of this article: Uncle S.
All the articles here are from the WeChat public account "Shi Kelang" original, if you want to see it at the first time, or see more and more exciting international game past, it is recommended to pay attention directly to the WeChat public account "Shi Kelang".
Before we start today, let's start with a feeling.
When playing cards, the most uncomfortable thing is: the person who plays cards with you, "crackling", you blow up a small 2, I smash a vice king, he throws a bomb again, he is very happy, you pinch a small 3, can only sit and stare dryly.
There are two reasons why this happens:
One is that your cards are already poor, which can't be helped;
A kind of hand where you have a good hand, but you just play it badly.
Now in the United States, if you look at it roughly, it still looks like a bull's fork and coaxing: did you see that I just shot those three bombs? Did you see that I just shot the king? See me......
But if you break his hand, you will find that he only has a small 3 in hand.
America's cards are out!
Let's start with the first sign: Recently, the yen has been depreciating wildly, if it weren't for the weekend, these two might have performed 1 dollar to 160 yen, come and show us!
This is actually very unusual, even quite ironic!
Because for more than 20 years, what Americans have been staring at is the depreciation of the yen!
I don't know how many times I have said cruel words!
For example, in 2002, when U.S. Treasury Secretary O'Neill went to Japan, godfather, you don't have to think too much about what you say, and the first thing you say is: Japan, you are not allowed to let the yen depreciate!
After the rehash is over, let's come back to various PUAs:
It turns out that the exchange rate does not increase labor productivity in Japan;
Deliberate currency depreciation will not solve Japan's economic problems;
If you depreciate, it's going to make the economy worse......
After listening to this, the Japanese officials sitting at the bottom had no expression on their faces, but their mouths were full of bitterness: because the previous year, that is, in 2001, the Japanese economy fell into recession, which caused the yen to depreciate by 15%!
However, in the eyes of the Americans, the depreciation of your yen is an increase in your export competitiveness, and it will impact the industries in the mainland, so how can you depreciate it?
As a result, the depreciation of the Japanese was pressed down, and they suffered in vain.
By 2013, Japan was also in recession, and the Japanese prime minister at that time was already Abe, and he did three things that year: one was to print a lot of money at home, the second was to run around the world outside, and the third was to wave his fists wildly at East Asian countries and find fault with all kinds of things.
As a result, as soon as Japan printed money, the United States was very nervous: Do you kid want to use the trick of printing money to devalue the yen and play the golden cicada shell?
At that time, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a semi-annual report on global exchange rate issues, warning: You should not depress the yen exchange rate in order to "gain a competitive advantage in the global market"!
And then scared Japan back.
After the "Abe Three Arrows" were obtained, except for the Japanese government's extra debts, nothing was obtained, and the Americans did not allow the yen to depreciate, so that Japan could only become a smoldering pot, which has a certain relationship!
So during this time, the sudden depreciation of the yen is very strange!
And the roles are reversed: the Japanese don't want to depreciate, the Americans want it to belittle!
Let's pull the timeline and see things clearly:
On April 18, Japan's finance minister pulled the South Korean finance minister and went to Washington, D.C., to "meet" Yellen, and later issued a joint statement to the effect that during this time, the yen and the South Korean won have depreciated too quickly, which has aroused their worries, and the Americans have noticed this.
At that time, the Americans also let out that the Japanese finance minister was in Washington and "spent a lot of time" explaining to the gods of the United States the reasons why they were going to intervene in the foreign exchange market and prevent the yen from depreciating. 、
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also pretended to intervene, saying that he was prepared to "assess the impact of recent policy changes on the economy and inflation" and then make subsequent adjustments.
On April 23, Japan's finance minister came out again and said that Japan "will not rule out any options" for excessive exchange rate fluctuations.
On the same day, the head of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, suddenly said that if the yen depreciates again, we will consider raising interest rates again!
What do you say?
That's pretty much it: I'm going to do it!
At this point, I have to say: Is there anyone in Japan who wants to stop the depreciation of the yen and make it stop?
Absolutely!
Because of this incident, I said two days ago: the large-scale depreciation of the yen is good for the Japanese chaebol, because it is tantamount to a disguised reduction in the wages of employees, and it is also good for the Americans.
But it is not good for the Japanese people!
Two days ago, a friend in Tokyo said that now in the supermarket, the price of yen is soaring, a Chinese cabbage is about to 100 yuan, before Vietnam ran to Japan to work, now even from Indonesia, the Philippines, feel that they can't survive, want to run away!
Japan's economy is still quite dependent on foreign workers.
If it goes on like this, it will definitely not be good for it!
Whether it is the finance minister or the governor of the central bank, it is a normal practice for Japan to speak to the outside world like this.
But here's the thing: Japan isn't a normal country!
As a result, as soon as Blinken's plane landed in Shanghai, the yen soared 3,000 feet, and the finance minister and central bank governor, who had said that they would intervene in the foreign exchange market, all disappeared without any resistance!
The Japanese have been fighting before, and they like to engage in sneak attacks, and this time on the exchange rate, they are also here to play sneak attacks!
On the Japanese forum, a large number of Japanese people scolded them as "Japanese traitors"!
How so?
Yesterday I swore that two people ran out, but they disappeared the next day, if this is not a sneak attack, what is it?
It's basically cooperating with the Americans!
What does this mean?
The United States has no cards in its hand!
In the early years of the United States, no matter how hard it was to do things, it would not let the little brother go to the front line while sucking his blood!
No matter how much it was before, it will give some compensation!
Let's talk about the second thing: during this time, a message suddenly came out on the Internet on our side, saying that the United States may kick some of our banks out of SWIFT, that is, the global banking financial telecommunications system!
At that time, this kind of rumor was very godly, saying that the Americans were drafting some sanctions that could cut off our banks from this system in order to prevent China's support for Russian military production.
Then a bunch of people are on the Internet, desperately scary: this SWIFT system, but a "financial nuclear bomb", wow wow wow, this is terrible, the United States wants to use this weapon, we can't stand it at all!
And even the Americans, who only say "partially", come to their mouths, and spread all the rumors, and they are very arrogant. It is already very clear which nationality these people are from and whose position they stand on!
How so?
As soon as the Blinkens arrived, there was a sudden flood of such words on the Internet.
How do you feel after reading it?
In a nutshell: in this world, there is such a good thing?
Why?
Here we have to talk about how the dollar hegemony in the hands of the Americans is now constituted: in the early years, it relied on binding to oil, so it was called "petrodollar", but now the dollar plate is too big, and it alone can no longer support the dollar.
Therefore, in recent years, whether the Americans have coerced and enticed us or supported other countries, if we put it bluntly, it is no longer enough for the dollar to rely on the "anchor" of oil, and we must find a "new anchor".
Originally, it was our manufacturing industry, but as a result, we didn't like it at all; the Americans retreated to the next best thing, trying to use small courtyards and high walls to support an industry that would replace us, but from the point of view of the results, it was quite unsatisfactory.
In the past few years that it has supported India, the share of India's manufacturing industry in GDP has declined!
Neither can Southeast Asia.
In the end, the world's largest commodity provider is still us!
And the proportion of our manufacturing industry in the world is still growing!
Some time ago, even the Americans themselves said: Although in the past two years, because the United States is raising interest rates, the dollar is relatively strong, so it seems that our GDP has fallen a little bit compared with the United States, but that is only an exchange rate phenomenon, if you look at the actual output, we have increased by more than 20% in the past few years, but the United States, only rich on paper!
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Commerce Secretary Raimondo, and Trade Representative Katherine Tai must have seen this, so recently, they have been clamoring for "overcapacity" or something.
Otherwise, your US GDP is soaring, and the situation is very good, what are you nervous about?
At this point, let's just say why the words that popped up on the Internet during this time are simply nonsense!
Currency is composed of "goods" and "coins", and without goods, even if you have coins in hand, it is a pile of waste paper. Even if gold is a real currency, we have long seen through it.
More than 2,000 years ago, Emperor Jing of the Han Dynasty said in his edict: gold, pearls, jade, hunger can not eat, cold can not clothing, think that the currency is used, do not know the beginning.
Of course, at that time, everyone was encouraged to engage in agriculture, and various handicrafts such as weaving and spinning silk were added to make "money" valuable. If you don't engage in "goods" and increase "currency", you will only create inflation and kill the whole society, and you will "not know the end"!
So how to say it?
Anyone who engages in financial warfare and really has an advantage is the one who has the "goods", that is, the one that has the manufacturing capacity, and the one who has the "currency" is in a weak position, and once people decide to abandon you, you have no way at all.
What's more, this SWIFT is just a settlement system in the banking industry, and we also have this kind of system, called CIPS, which is nothing more than everyone is used to it and doesn't want to switch for a while. If the Americans really do something terrible, and everyone decides to abandon swift and switch to CIPS, it will not be difficult.
After all, there are more than 190 countries in the world, and we are the largest trading partner of more than 140 of them.
So if the Americans really decide to do this, it will be a great thing for us!
From then on, the dollar will slump, and the yuan will go up the channel!
Now that the Americans think about it, they probably find that it is wrong, and they have changed their words and said that they are considering it.
Think about it, but 10 years, it can be 100 years!
The third sign is in science and technology: some time ago, Huawei released a new mobile phone, on the day of release, the mobile phone was dismantled, and then everyone saw that the chip was 9010, no longer the previous 9000S!
Raimondo is going to be "thunderous" again!
Because she hasn't figured out how the 9000S came about before, she has now run out of a 9010!
Last year, the "New York Times" said: The chip war is related to the fortunes of the United States, and if the chip field is broken through by us, then "the fate that the United States is trying to avoid" will "come inexorably ahead of schedule"!
Now you say what about the Americans?
Let's talk about another thing: didn't Musk say that he was going to India before, and he also said yes to Indian Prime Minister Modi?
As a result, because the new energy vehicles on our side are too volatile, Tesla is a little struggling, and the stock price plummets!
Musk said he wouldn't go to India.
But where has he been in the past two days?
Beijing!
Recently, Beijing has been holding an auto show, and as soon as we have an auto show here in the past two years, a bunch of bigwigs from the European and American auto industry will come, anyway, a bunch of foreigners, whites, blacks, and Latinos...... Even those who look "Chinese" are actually Koreans, Japanese or Southeast Asians.
There are also some Koreans who come to the exhibition to talk differently! Running to look up at the carbon fiber tail wing of the U9, and while chattering loudly, posing not to participate in the war, but to test the quality of Made in China!
Automobile is a big industry, and it can provide a lot of high-paying jobs, as long as we can win this field in the next few years, then the United States really has no cards to play!
As for talking about the issue of Hong Kong and the Western Regions, it is pure nonsense, it is a lack of bargaining chips, and we can also talk to it about the massacre of Indians and the abuse of black slaves in those years!
How so?
All the cards that the United States has in hand have been played!
It can only hold a small 3 and watch us play!
What else does it have?
Military?
Talking about military affairs with the world's largest industrial power has always been self-defeating!