Non-ferrous resource stocks have good memories in the history of A-shares, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 998 points to 6,124 points from 2006 to 2007, and the protagonist of this bull market is resource stocks.
Haruka Anniversary:
- Tin shares from the lowest 5 yuan to the highest 102 yuan, an increase of 20 times
- Zhuye Group rose 18 times from the lowest price of 2.32 and the highest price of 42.95
- Hongda shares rose 25 times from the lowest price of 3.3 and the highest price of 83.88
- Chihong Zinc Zhu from the lowest 9.5 to the highest 154, an increase of 16 times
- Jiangxi Copper increased from a minimum of 4 yuan to a maximum of 78.5, an increase of 19 times
- Jiaozuo Wanfang from the lowest 1.8 yuan to the highest 67.98, an increase of 37 times
In the following ten years, most of the non-ferrous resource stocks fluctuated at a low level. The annual K-line of Chihong zinc germanium is a portrayal of most resource stocks for more than ten years:
This year, with the international gold price repeatedly refreshing record highs, silver, copper, and aluminum have risen together, and investment banks and brokerages are bullish on reports one after another. In the past two days, there have been similar headlines in the financial media, which are provocative.
- Copper: Goldman Sachs believes it could rise to $10,000 by the end of the year
- Changjiang Securities "Precious Metals Welcome the Rising Waves, Copper and Aluminum Open the First Year of Price Increases"
- Minsheng Securities "The Rise of Kind, the Coming of the Cycle"
- Qiu Zuxue, Chief of New Wealth: Shorting copper prices is the biggest risk, and gold prices will still be bullish
Today's trend in resource stocks has poured cold water on the expectation of a big bull market, and many stocks have pulled out a long upper shadow. In fact, analyzing the reasons for the sharp rise in resource stocks in 2006-2007, we can see that the current conditions do not have the conditions to reproduce the grand occasion at that time:
In 07, the world economy was in the fastest stage of development in 20 years, the processing industry and manufacturing industry expanded very rapidly, and the demand for base metals was very strong. Non-ferrous commodity prices have been in a bull market since May 2005, and prices have been on the rise.
China's sustained and rapid macroeconomic growth is an important driving force for the bull market in the securities market, and signs of the rise of a great power have begun to appear. Foreign trade continues to surplus, and the pressure on RMB appreciation continues to increase. After July 2005, China implemented a managed floating exchange rate formation mechanism, the renminbi began to appreciate against the US dollar, and international hot money continued to pour into the country, mainly into the real estate market and stock market, pushing up housing prices and stock indexes. At the same time, the dollar index fell sharply, with a high of 93 all the way down to a low of 70.
At that time, A-shares were in the historical stage of the reform of equity division, and the special period gave birth to special reform cows. And at that time, the market capacity was small, the small and medium-sized board, the gem and so on were not launched, the main body of listed companies was the traditional industry, non-ferrous metals, coal and alcohol and other large consumption in the traditional industry elasticity, so it became the protagonist of the 06 07 year bull market. And now, non-ferrous metal stocks are no longer the protagonists of the market.
In the past two years, the instability, uncertainty and imbalance of the world economy have risen, and low growth has been accompanied by high inflation, high interest rates, high debt and high unemployment, showing a development trend of "four highs and one low". As a result, central banks have reverted to gold as a reserve asset, hedge funds are betting on the Fed's pivot, hedges against stubborn US inflation and fears of a hard landing, and hedged against global geopolitical risks and an unpredictable macroeconomic outlook. The rise in copper this year is due to the recovery of demand on the one hand, but on the other hand due to the contraction of supply expectations. Domestic copper smelters deliberately cut production and postponed new capacity construction in March due to the sharp drop in copper smelting and processing costs, which spurred copper prices higher. All this is not the same as the general environment of the comprehensive development of the world economy in 06 and 07.
Of course, international gold is still in an upward trend, and the precious metals and non-ferrous metals market will not come to an abrupt end. However, the big bull market, at present, I think too much.
Author: Xu Jinhua
Editor: Li Ang
Producer: Wang Junji
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