Preface
On the grounds of so-called national security, the United States has continuously increased its export control measures against China and unreasonably suppressed Chinese semiconductor companies, which is an out-and-out economic bullying act, and in order to maintain its hegemony in the chip industry, the United States can be said to do everything it can.
From the suppression of the chip industry of Chinese enterprises and the blockade of Huawei's 5G technology, 700 companies have been included in the control by the United States so far, and then even their own enterprises and allies have been put under stronger export controls. It can be said that the United States has gone crazy in order to contain China's development.
Recently, the United States has publicly announced that it will no longer provide maintenance services for high-end chip equipment imported from China, which has caused ripples in the scientific and technological community.
Because we all know that in the context of globalization, no enterprise and country can not be left alone, and the impact of US sanctions on China is not necessarily only Chinese companies, you know, China is the largest semiconductor market, and the annual import volume accounts for 30% of the world's imports.
1. The Biden administration is pressing closer
Previously, in order to restrict the development of Chinese chips, the United States not only included a large number of advanced AI chips and memory chips in the scope of export control, but also wanted to restrict the shipment of semiconductor equipment.
In addition to semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as ASML in the Netherlands and Nikon and Canon Tokyo Electron in the Netherlands, which will be restricted from shipping a variety of semiconductor equipment in 2023, equipment manufacturers in the United States, such as Applied Materials and Kelei, were actually restricted from shipment as early as October 2022, and these manufacturers account for almost 80% of the share in the semiconductor field, which is equivalent to a complete ban on sales to China.
However, what the Biden administration did not expect was that ASML, a well-known leading lithography machine company, "secretly" obtained a shipment license. Although it was only three months, ASML seized the opportunity to export a large number of high-end semiconductor equipment to the Chinese market.
2. Sanctions have been escalated
However, the United States has not stopped sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter, given the current progress made by China in the field of advanced processes and the fact that it is still importing a large number of lithography equipment, the United States may further tighten the relevant semiconductor equipment control measures.
The U.S. is drawing up a list of China's advanced wafer fabs that are barred from receiving critical tools to make it easier to stop the technology from flowing into China, according to three people familiar with the matter. The list could be released in the coming months, a person familiar with the matter said.
In October 2023, the chip master reported that the deputy minister was waiting for China's lithography machines and etching machines to break, and the BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security of the U.S. Department of Commerce) in charge of the U.S. Department of Commerce is responsible for developing, implementing, and revising export control lists (including lists of goods and businesses), such as the most well-known "Entity List".
In fact, since the announcement of the US ban, the three major manufacturers under the US capital have already completely blocked the supply of domestic wafers, and the follow-up services have also adopted an attitude of not replying, not taking the initiative to ignore them.
3. Restricting repairs is not that simple
A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the United States said that the United States should stop overextending the concept of national security and stop abusing state power to suppress Chinese companies.
Due to the complexity of the restrictions on components, the U.S. government is currently in discussions with allies to determine which parts are important and which are not. Among them, the United States is not prepared to regulate non-critical components that Chinese companies can repair themselves.
According to industry insiders, the procurement contract for semiconductor equipment generally includes follow-up maintenance and software upgrade services. Suspension of services to customers who are still within the term of the contract may result in a breach of contract.
Moreover, maintenance and upgrade services are also an important source of revenue for equipment companies. For example, ASML, a well-known semiconductor manufacturer, the Chinese market is actually indispensable for it.
Leaving aside the strong demand in China, the agreement signed by ASML already had a lot of maintenance clauses before the ban, and if ASML could not even comply with these terms of the agreement, it would inevitably affect ASML's reputation and sales.
epilogue
In fact, the so-called maintenance restriction strategy of the United States at present, from many aspects, may not achieve its expected effect when it is actually implemented.
Although ASML is a world-renowned lithography machine manufacturer, with its supply to manufacturers, manufacturers will no longer import lithography machines if they have enough equipment. Even in the quarter of 2023, ASML's revenue was maintained by shipping to China.
In addition, even if the United States blocks our imported equipment, judging from China's current speed of scientific and technological development, it will only accelerate China's R&D and innovation capabilities and accelerate domestic substitution.