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01 Domestic fresh milk prices
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of March 21, the average purchase price inside and outside the contract in 10 major fresh milk producing areas such as Inner Mongolia / Hebei was 3.53 yuan/kg, down 0.6% month-on-month and 11.1% year-on-year.
02 Bulk dairy spot offer
The prices of the main bulk dairy products offered in the spot offer are as follows: (yuan/ton)
The above prices are quoted for special treatment in the actual price offer 03
04 Foreign futures offers in the same period
05 exchange rate
The trend of the RMB against the USD/EUR exchange rate.
06Important information on the domestic market
1. China's economy: The monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field shows that in late March 2024, compared with mid-March, 19 products increased in price and 31 decreased. The most notable of these is the continued rise in hog prices and the rebound in ferrous metal prices since the end of February, and the visit of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will help the exchange rate and US debt sides reach a corresponding agreement.
2. Related to the U.S. economy: The U.S. added 303,000 new non-farm payrolls in March, significantly higher than the consensus forecast of 214,000, revised up 27,000 in January and down 05,000 to 256,000 and 270,000 in February, respectively, the unemployment rate fell 0.1pp to 3.8%, better than the consensus expectation and the previous value, hourly wages rebounded to 0.3%, in line with consensus expectations, and the labor force participation rate rose 0.2pct to 62.7%, higher than the expected 62.6%; The average weekly working hours edged up to 34.4 hours. Household survey job creation reversed the previous downward trend, with 498,000 new jobs added in March, and the unemployment rate still fell even though the labor force participation rate rebounded. Explosive strong jobs data will once again weigh on expectations of a rate cut in June.
3. Palestinian-Israeli/Russia-Ukraine: With Israel's brazen attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, all parties involved are waiting for Iran's final response, and if Iran finally chooses reciprocal retaliation, the United States may end up, and it is inevitable that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will expand into a war in the Middle East.
4. Domestic raw milk: Since March, raw milk is expected to be surplus of about 15,000 tons per day, and dairy expert Li Shengli expects that the output will be reduced by more than 8,000 tons per day after that, so that the current crisis of milk surplus can be alleviated.
5. New Zealand's Major Producers/Origins: As milk powder prices have continued to rise recently, some major New Zealand mills are planning to shift milk sources that were originally used for cheese and other products to whole milk powder production to increase supply to the market.
6. International industry/origin dynamics: The domestic demand in the United States is strong, and milk fat imports will increase by nearly 5% in 2023.
7. This week's GDT results: all major varieties are up and butter is strong.
8. European and American dairy futures performance: U.S. butter prices exceeded $3/lb, hitting a five-year high.
9. Crude oil: The expansion of the war in the Middle East and the attacks on each other's energy infrastructure by Russia and Ukraine have been the driving force behind the recent surge in crude oil.
10. Palm oil: Palm oil closed up sharply before the holiday, supported by the domestic PMI data.
11. Sugar: Sugar prices stabilized, with production expected to be reduced in Thailand this year due to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon, and Brazilian exporters were supported by a lower desire to export due to the sharp drop in the real exchange rate.
12. Domestic grain prices for main feed: the national average price of corn was 2.59 yuan/kg, flat week-on-week, down 13.1% year-on-year; the price in the main producing areas was 2.35 yuan/kg, flat month-on-month; the main sales area was 2.70 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from last week; the average price of soybean meal was 3.82 yuan/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week and down 15.1% year-on-year; On March 31, after a month of decline, wheat finally rose in the last three days of the month, and the price of wheat in the main producing areas rose sharply in these two days, and some areas returned to about 1.4 yuan.
07 Dairy online market insights
Whole milk powder: Driven by the expected supply increase in New Zealand and the increase in GDT auctions, the price of imported whole milk powder rose directly from around 26,500 before the auction to 27,500, and some international traders with low inventories even shouted 28+The leading dairy industry dumped its domestic milk powder in the second quarter of 23 years on the market, and it is rumored that the quantity is more than nearly 10,000 tons, and the price is expected to fall below 18,000 yuan per ton, while the price of some domestic third-tier brand domestic milk powder has approached the 16,000 yuan per ton mark, especially the whole fat payment obtained by some ranch raw material suppliers, and the price is not guaranteed.
Skimmed milk powder: Skimmed milk powder rose slightly before the auction, driven by the auction, and the after-hours offer exceeded 22,000 yuan per ton.
Butter: In terms of butter, the market supply is in short supply, and the price of industrial brands has been continuously raised before the auction, and the price of industrial brands has exceeded 1,400 yuan per box again due to the price increase of catering brands after the auction.
Cheese: Cream cheese is hot and cold, all kinds of Australian and European sub-brands are selling, New Zealand's main supply is tight, the trend of Masu blocks is stable, the market has signs of replenishment, and the demand for Cheda cheese has improved, and leading enterprises have begun to replenish offline.
Lactose and low-protein whey: lactose is not popular, and domestic and foreign prices are inverted significantly, while low-protein whey is gradually rising with the rebound of pork prices.
Concentrated protein varieties: WPC continues to offer firmly, Europe, the United States and Oceania prices converge; MPC market due to New Zealand's main force is still dumping spot at a low price, it is estimated that the price is difficult to improve before the end of the year; RC at the end of the production season offer is stable, internal and external balance, the price continues to rise is difficult to support; the foreign market of butter sodium is stable, but the dealers who have purchased more in the early stage continue to sell upside down.
Whipping cream: In the whipping cream market, the supply of New Zealand's main brands is tight, domestic brands are fierce, and European brands are not performing well.
However, it has recently been rumored that the quality inspection departments in various places have found that the furfuric acid of some UHT milk products exceeds the standard, which is suspected to be the sale of reconstituted milk as fresh milk, which is worthy of attention in the later stage.
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