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01 Domestic fresh milk prices
According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of April 11, the average purchase price inside and outside the contract in 10 major fresh milk producing areas such as Inner Mongolia/Hebei was 3.47 yuan/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month and 11.9% year-on-year.
02 Bulk dairy spot offer
The prices of the main bulk dairy products offered in the spot offer are as follows: (yuan/ton)
The above prices are quoted for special treatment in the actual price offer 03
04 Foreign futures offers in the same period
05 exchange rate
The trend of the RMB against the USD/EUR exchange rate.
06Important information on the domestic market
1. China's economy: The operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2024 was released, and the GDP in the first quarter was 296299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices; Prices in the production field are running at a low level, and prices in petroleum and non-ferrous metal related industries have risen, and prices in some industries have declined.
2. U.S. economy-related: On Thursday (April 18) local time, New York Fed President John Williams (Fed No. 3) said that the Fed is not in a hurry to lower central bank interest rates, and economic data will determine the timing of action. When asked about the possibility of further rate hikes by the Fed, Williams said it was not his "baseline scenario," but it was possible if economic data justified such an action. At the time of the speech, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is most closely correlated with Fed interest rate expectations, rose quickly and is now at 4.99%.
3. Palestinian-Israeli/Russia-Ukraine: Israel has not yet made a substantial return for Iran's showy attacks and has not carried out further offensive actions in Gaza, while the Ukrainian army continues to attack facilities related to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, while Russia is focusing on airstrikes on major cities across Ukraine.
4. Domestic raw milk: Raw milk production in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 5.1% year-on-year, far exceeding the growth rate of 3.1% in retail sales, and the situation of oversupply continues to intensify.
5. New Zealand's major manufacturers/origins: New Zealand's major producers cleared their protein inventories at the end of the quarter, and a variety of protein products have offline opportunities to seek preferential transactions.
6. International industry/origin dynamics: The national average protein + fat content of milk in the United States in March increased by 1.6% year-on-year, which is expected to have a significant impact on the inventory of these two types of products in the later period.
7. GDT results this week: anhydrous cream continued to rise, butter fell slightly, and milk powder performed steadily.
8. European and American dairy futures performance: European and American futures are stable and declining, and degreasing is generally resistant.
9. Crude Oil: The current situation is a game between the suppression of oil prices by the strong dollar and the rise of crude oil by the geopolitical crisis.
10. Palm oil: Palm oil prices have fallen after breaking fast in Malaysia and Indonesia, as the return of labour force and the continuous rise in production and supply, coupled with the depreciation of the ringgit for exports.
11. White sugar: Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2023/24 crushing season reached a record high of 713.2 million tonnes, and sugar production also reached 45.68 million tonnes, continuing to weigh on sugar prices, while the beverage season is approaching and prices take a breather.
12. Domestic grain prices for main feed: the national average price of corn was 2.57 yuan/kg, down 0.4 percent week-on-week and 12.6 percent year-on-year; the price in the main producing areas was 2.35 yuan/kg, flat month-on-month; the main sales area was 2.68 yuan/kg, down 0.4 percent from last week; the average price of soybean meal was 3.78 yuan/kg, up 1.0 percent week-on-week and down 13.1 percent year-on-year; on April 17, domestic wheat prices were basically stable, with a price range of 1.32-1.39 yuan/jin and an average price of 1.353 yuan/jin. According to incomplete statistics (key monitoring areas of production and marketing areas), a total of 200,000 tons of land reserves were put into the market today, and a total of 83,000 tons were sold, with a turnover rate of 41.5%, and a total of 14,000 tons of central reserves were put up for auction today, all of which were unsold.
07 Dairy online market insights
Whole milk powder: There is little change before and after the auction of imported whole milk powder, and the transaction is scarce above 27,500 yuan per ton; the price of mainstream new brands of domestic powder has fallen to less than 20,000 yuan per ton, and the second line is below 18,000 yuan, and the third line is around 15,000 yuan; and the price difference between imported milk powder and imported milk powder is close to 10,000 yuan per ton, which also makes imported milk powder easy to fall and difficult to rise.
Skimmed milk powder: the price of skimmed milk powder fluctuates little, and the large-scale transaction is still maintained below 22,000 yuan per ton; due to the domestic skimming for self-use, it has not formed a greater pressure on the imported skimmed spot, but considering the reduction in medium-term demand, this variety is not optimistic.
Butter: In terms of butter, the market is out of stock, and although the main catering brands have symbolically lowered the guide price of 20 yuan per box, the actual market price is still at a high level due to the continued limited quantity control, and the price of domestic butter continues to hover around 1,000 yuan per box.
Cheese: cream cheese, mainstream brands and the second and third line of the situation is very different, it is worth noting that the early thunderstorm of a foreign dairy giant agent in Shanghai cheese butter clearance is about to be completed, the follow-up brand agent was also taken away by an agent in North China, the pressure on the market is reduced; the price of Masu block is stable, Masu crushed continues to fight at the bottom of the market; the retail price of Cheda cheese is firm, and the industrial packaging price market is recovering.
Lactose and low-protein whey: the domestic demand for lactose food grade and infant grade is slowly rising, and large factories have entered the market for bidding, but the foreign market is firm;
Varieties of concentrated protein: WPC offers in Europe and the United States are firm, but the New Zealand market is beginning to loosen; MPC market is subject to high domestic inventory before October, and it will be difficult to change; RC and tyrosodium due to the conflict between New Zealand's main brands in liquidation, so the market price is soft, and the dumping of an Argentine brand has not been completed, it is estimated that the market is difficult to have major changes.
Whipping cream: New Zealand's main force in the whipping cream market continues to control goods, while new European and local brands are performing poorly and selling goods frequently.
UHT milk: The room temperature milk market has entered a new low, and the third-tier brands have fallen into the free shipping price within 40.
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