As an overseas embassy has just been bombed and its mainland has been hit by a terrorist attack, how is Iran prepared to retaliate? The United States has announced that it is ready to respond to war, and Israel is on high alert, is a new round of war in the Middle East brewing?
The embassy in Syria was bombed, and Iran was hit by another terrorist attack
In the past Qingming Festival, Chinese are sweeping tombs, paying tribute to their ancestors, and enjoying the Qingming holiday peacefully. In the Middle East, where war and terrorist attacks are worsening, people may not be so lucky.
Let's start with Iran, which is not a one-way disaster. Reuters reported that on April 4, two military headquarters in southeastern Iran were hit by terrorist attacks. According to Iranian officials, terrorists attacked a border defense base and a Revolutionary Guard base in the Iranian city of Rasque. The terrorists also ambushed reinforcements. During the clash at Lasker, one terrorist was killed, while others failed to break into the Revolutionary Guard base.
In addition, terrorists attacked a border police station in the Iranian city of Chabahar, and one terrorist was killed in an exchange of fire. Iran's deputy interior minister said the terrorist attack had killed three Iranian soldiers, two of whom were members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps and one of whom was a police officer. All the terrorists involved in the attack have been killed, a preliminary count of 18, and all hostages have been released. About 10 members of the Iranian security forces were killed and many injured during the anti-terrorist operation.
Preliminary investigations have revealed that the terrorist group "JJ" was involved in the attack. This army of justice is mainly made up of Sunni Muslim extremists. Their goal is to gain more benefits for the Baluchis, a minority in Iran. Therefore, this terrorist attack is mainly a struggle between the Shiites and Sunnis who are in power in Iran.
Because on 1 April, the building of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, was hit by Israeli airstrikes, killing 13 people, including seven Iranian military advisers. After the attack, the Iranian side warned that the Israeli regime would be punished and that Iran would make Israel regret the crimes it had committed.
In addition, Iran, through the Swiss Embassy, has issued a written warning to the United States, saying that "as a supporter of the Israeli regime, the United States must take responsibility for this" and that American leaders should not fall into the "trap" set for the United States by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
But so far, the Iranian side remains vague about how Iran will retaliate against Israel and what responsibility the United States will be required to bear. For Israel, of course, it would like to rush into a fight with Iran in order to deflect international pressure on itself in the Gaza Strip.
This presents Iran with a big problem, if it wants to retaliate against Israel with real swords, it is very likely to provoke a more fierce counterattack from Israel, and Iran is not sure that it will win in the crossfire. If it swallows its anger this time, it will be tantamount to declaring Iran's powerlessness in the face of Israel's humiliation, which will be a major blow to Iran, which wants to become the future hegemon of the Middle East.
In addition, there is another reason why Iran has hesitated so far, and that is the attitude of the United States in this air strike. In the aftermath of the attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, the White House made a blitly blunt claim that the United States was not involved, and that there was no mention of criticism or condemnation of Israel. In response to Iran's warning, the United States even replied, demanding that Iran not target American facilities in retaliation.
The rift between the United States and Israel is widening, and if Iran retaliates violently, or even breaks out into conflict with Israel, the happy enemies of the United States and Israel will stop arguing and unite against Iran. This is exactly what Israel wants to see, but it is contrary to Iran's goal of weakening Israel.
The leaders of the United States and Israel spoke, and Biden issued a warning for the first time
As far as Iran is concerned, it would prefer to see the United States and Israel move towards a deeper break because of the Gaza conflict. So, will this happen? At present, this possibility cannot be ruled out. On April 4, U.S. President Joe Biden held a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to US media reports, during this call, Biden warned Netanyahu for the first time, demanding that Israel must protect civilians, otherwise US policy may change.
Subsequently, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken further said that if the U.S. doesn't see Israel make a change, then the Biden administration will change policy. The US media's comment on this is that the call shows that the United States has adopted a more confrontational attitude towards Israel, and it is also the first time that the Biden administration has sought to use US aid to influence Israel's military actions, which may have an impact on the situation in Gaza.
In addition to the United States, the United Nations is also increasing its pressure on Israel. On April 5, the UN Human Rights Council voted to adopt a draft resolution calling on all countries to impose an arms embargo on Israel, according to Agence France-Presse.
According to the report, this move marks the first time that the UN's top human rights body has taken a stand on the war in Gaza. And, unlike in the past, the draft does not name Hamas, but only condemns the firing of rockets into Israeli civilian areas and calls for the "immediate release of the remaining hostages." In the case of Israel, the criticism of the draft is noticeably harsher.
For example, the draft calls on Israel to end its illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories and to immediately lift its "illegal blockade" in the Gaza Strip, as well as all other forms of "collective punishment". It also calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, condemns Israel's "use of starvation of civilians as a tactic of warfare" and "actions that may amount to ethnic cleansing", and opposes the "forcible relocation" of Palestinians. Finally, the draft also warns Israel in particular against any large-scale military action in the densely populated city of Rafah, which would have devastating consequences.
The Israeli air base was attacked, and Israel closed 28 embassies abroad
After the United States and the United Nations successively expressed their positions, Israel has greatly increased international pressure. In particular, after the Biden administration's attitude changes, it may affect US military assistance to Israel. This is what Israel does not want to see. At this time, any disturbance around Israel, including Iran, will be used by the Netanyahu government to make a fuss.
For example, on April 4, the Iraqi militia Islamic Resistance Group announced that it had launched a drone attack on Ramat David Air Base in the northern Israeli city of Haifa. This base is Israel's northernmost air base and one of the three main IDF air bases.
In the wake of the attack, Israel quickly tightened its alerts. On April 4, the Israeli military announced that it was suspending leave for all IDF combat units. The day before, on April 3, the Israeli military had announced that it would call up reservists to strengthen its military, especially its air defense.
According to Israeli Defense Minister Gallant, Israel is facing threats from all over the Middle East, and the Israeli army "will strike at the enemy throughout the Middle East." And for Israel, this enemy is first and foremost Iran. In anti-Iran missile strikes on Israel, Israel has cut off GPS services on its territory. In addition, in order to reduce the risk of terrorist attacks, Israel has temporarily closed 28 embassies abroad at one time since April 5.
Israel has constantly exaggerated its threats and raised its alert posture with a clear purpose, which is to divert the attention of the international community and reduce the pressure of international public opinion on the situation in Gaza. At the same time, Israel has taken the initiative to knock Iran and create tension between the two countries that may lead to a conflict, which can not only dispel the Biden administration's threat of possible adjustment of aid to Israel, but also further drag the United States into the water.
The United States has expressed its readiness to respond to the war, and Iran's choice is crucial
At this time, how Iran reacts is very important. As far as the current Raisi government is concerned, even if it wants to retaliate with a tooth for a tooth and a blood for a blood against Israel, it must consider whether it can bear the serious consequences of a direct conflict with Israel. For now, the European side is still focused on reassuring Iran, condemning the attack on the embassy and stressing that "maximum restraint must be shown in the highly tense regional situation." The implication is that Iran should not seek retaliation from Israel at such a time.
On April 5, a senior U.S. government official told the media that the U.S. is on high alert and is actively preparing for a possible Iranian attack. They anticipate that the Iranian attack could unfold in a number of different ways, with both U.S. and Israeli assets and personnel at risk of being targeted.
So, how will Iran choose? Will it swallow its anger and swallow blood, or will it come to the fore and make a desperate gamble with Israel, or will it remain hidden behind the scenes and plot an even more fierce proxy war against Israel? The answer to this question may soon be revealed.