In the middle of 2024, the tendency of the Taiwan authorities to try to go all the way to the dark on the road of relying on the United States to seek independence is becoming more and more obvious, and they have an almost paranoid superstition about the military strength of the US military.
【Seventh Fleet】
However, in fact, even if the United States sacrifices all its resources to fight a decisive battle with China in the Taiwan Strait, its chances of victory are extremely slim, and Iran has already proved in its confrontation with the United States that the current military strength of the United States is not as strong as it imagined.
Not too hard US troops
In fact, the idea of a decisive battle in the Taiwan Strait was rejected very early on by the RAND think tank, which is keen on deduction in the Taiwan Strait, and the fundamental reason for this is that the United States has lost its military superiority over China, and the United States has almost no chance of winning in the Taiwan Strait battlefield.
【Seventh Fleet】
Moreover, it is worth mentioning that the deduction of the RAND think tank is basically affected by political factors, and generally speaking, there are only three outcomes: a big win, a medium win, and a small win for the US military.
Of course, the top level of the US military is not stupid, these three situations actually have their own subtext, the meaning of a big win is to fight casually, the US military has a clear military superiority, winning in the middle can be fought but not necessary, in the end, it may be that the war consumption is greater than the war benefits.
A small win must not be played, otherwise the pants will be lost. However, in the deduction of the war in the Taiwan Strait, the RAND think tank can be regarded as setting a precedent, and for the first time, the US military has a new ending that is still glorious despite defeat.
[Scenario of a war in the Taiwan Strait to strike at a U.S. aircraft carrier]
According to the consistent subtext of the RAND think tank, this probably means that they believe that it is better for the US military not to intervene in the war in the Taiwan Strait, otherwise it will suffer unimaginable heavy losses, and the United States has no ability to intervene in the Taiwan Strait at all.
Many people's belief in the United States' ability to intervene in combat is still stuck in the golden age of the 90s of the last century, and in fact, the world's first navy has gradually sunset.
Not to mention in East Asia, which is known as the monster house, even in the Middle East, the fig leaf of the United States' loss of overseas intervention capability has long been torn off by Iran, and after Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on the Israeli mainland, the United States appeared weak and weak in anti-missile interception and counter-strikes after the attack.
[Iranian missile penetration]
Although Israel announced that the interception success rate was as high as 99%, there has long been more than one video on the Internet recording the video of Ramon Air Base in the deep desert being hit by multiple Iranian hypersonic missiles.
You must know that the Ramon airbase is equipped with Israeli F-35I fighters, and its air defense equipment is quite tight, but it has been penetrated by Iranian missiles one after another, which has obviously proved that Israel is only hard-mouthed in its anti-missile capability.
Even the most heavily fortified air bases have been hit, and the rate of air defense interception in other areas will only be even lower.
The warships deployed by the US military in the Middle East Theater also use the Aegis system to command the standard series of interceptor missiles to participate in air defense operations, but it can be seen that the results are not very good.
The United States is well aware of its military capabilities, which is why after the attack on Israel, the United States not only did not jump out to help Israel vent its anger, but also advised Israel to abandon its plan to counterattack and not to further escalate the situation.
A doomed war
The United States does not even have the confidence to suppress Iran, let alone fire head-on with China in the Asia-Pacific region, and it will be completely crushed by China's military power on the Taiwan Strait issue.
【Chinese Navy】
The RAND think tank once calculated that if the United States wants to confront China head-on, it will need to assemble at least seven aircraft carrier groups and more than 1,500 fighters in China's Taiwan Strait area, which is obviously impossible.
Although the United States has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, less than half of them can actually be dispatched.
In 2023, the U.S. Navy set a new high in aircraft carrier sorties due to the escalation of the situation around the world, and this new high is only 5 aircraft carriers in a state of deployment.
At present, the US aircraft carrier is actually in a state of overstretching, otherwise it would not have pulled out the Nimitz-class, which is already ready to be decommissioned, to extend its life and upgrade, just to use it for another three or five years.
[U.S. aircraft carrier overhaul]
There are not enough aircraft carriers, and the same is true for fighters.
According to the number of active fighters in the US Air Force at the end of 2023, there are nearly 500 fifth-generation aircraft and about 1,400 fourth-generation aircraft, with a total number of nearly 2,000 fighters.
The U.S. Air Force is responsible for global defense, and it is obviously unrealistic for it to spend three-quarters of its fighters to deploy in the Asia-Pacific region, and the number of 2,000 aircraft itself has a lot of water, because this is only the total number of active aircraft, not the actual number of fighters that can be dispatched.
For example, although the U.S. Air Force has 181 F-22As in active service, the accuracy rate of the Raptor fleet has always been around 50%.
[F-22A fighter]
After all, the aircraft has been deployed with high intensity since it entered service, and it has lasted in this state for more than 20 years, and it is already very considerable that half of the fighters can be used.
The same problem also appears in the fourth-generation aircraft fleet, the US Air Force F-15 and F-16 aircraft are relatively old, and the new F-15EX is equipped with more than 10 aircraft, which is why it is difficult to count the current fighters of the US military, and a considerable number of fighters have actually entered the end of service.
It is not difficult to see that the problems faced by the US military in the Taiwan Strait are not even actual combat strength, and its paper data will hardly give it an advantage in the war, which is why the RAND think tank will warn the US military not to try to start a war with China in the Taiwan Strait.
[The PLA has a great advantage in fighting in the Taiwan Strait]
The RAND think tank has deduced the use of a US aircraft carrier battle group to be deployed directly in the waters around Taiwan, China, to ensure the security of the rear of the US military and blockade the Taiwan Strait, but this is impossible in reality.
The PLA's anti-access measures against US aircraft carriers have covered an area of 1,500 to 5,000 kilometers offshore, and US aircraft carriers are a clear target in this area.
The PLA will also be hit by precision strikes by US military bases around China's Taiwan Strait, and a strike on aircraft carriers and bases will deprive the United States of the means to project troops in China's Taiwan Strait, a force that the US military is completely unable to confront .
[Anti-Aircraft Carrier Operations]
In fact, the US military has been studying how to conduct intervention operations in the Taiwan Strait, but the actual results do show that the more we study, the more we find that it is best for the US military to stay away from China's Taiwan Strait.
At present, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has built the world's most complete missile strike system that combines medium- and long-range missiles and cruises, and it has both nuclear and conventional capabilities. The mainland is also one of the few countries in the world that has the capability to monitor the entire sea, and with the current US military strength, its opponents in the Asia-Pacific region are tantamount to digging their own graves.
Sources:
[1] No repairs: the U.S. Air Force B-2 fleet will drop to 19 aircraft. Observer.com.2024-05-11 [cited 2024-05-11]
[2] The United States throws away the strategic concept of sea and air to counter China's "denial strategy"