Author: Li Yunfei|Source: Original
The five-nation think tank predicts that by 2035, China's economy will surpass the United States and become the world's largest economy. In the next 10 years, China's development will accelerate! History is always strikingly similar, so will China become the second Japan? Follow me and share some wealth and dry goods for you every day.
Recently, the think tanks of China, the United States, Russia, Canada, and India predicted that by 2035, China's GDP will surpass that of the United States and become the world's largest economy, and the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents will double that of 2023! The middle-income group will also reach 700 million, and China will become the primary force for maintaining international peace and leading the international stable order! This also means that in the next 10 years, China's development will accelerate.
Aren't you going to be happy to hear that? That's because then our per capita income will increase dramatically, half of the people will go into the middle class, and everyone will become richer. It's just that you shouldn't be too happy.
Second, in the next 10 years, what thorny problems will the mainland face while developing at a high speed, and will it become a second Japan? Because the United States will not give up?
First of all, this development forecast is with the participation of China, Russia, and India, and everyone is not going to talk nonsense with their eyes open. Therefore, it is untenable for the United States and Western countries to use this forecast to create a theory of China's economic development in order to suppress and restrict the development of the mainland's economy.
Second, China's economy is indeed developing at a high speed. 20 years ago, we would never have imagined that China's artificial intelligence, 5G networks, and new energy vehicles would be far ahead of the world. Among them, Huawei has done so that the world is afraid, and China now exports the world's largest new energy vehicles. It can be said that now whether it is German Motor, American Motor, or Japanese Motor, it is not possible to roll up China's new energy vehicles.
In addition, there are high-end industries such as aviation, ships, high-speed railways, bridges, and photovoltaics in the mainland, and we have the absolute right to speak in the world. It is worth mentioning that more than 100 countries around the world are now responding to China's Belt and Road policy.
Therefore, in the next 10 years, the transformation of the mainland's economic development from quantity to quality will be logical. Of course, the mainland has also formulated a realistic 2035 development vision and goals. To sum up, the report of the think tanks of the five countries is tenable. It can be said that the next 10 years will be 10 years in which several generations of our Chinese people can witness the miracle of economic development.
Of course, when we say this, we should not get carried away: Will the United States give up on its laurels when China's economy surpasses that of the United States? Will the United States watch China's economy lead the rest of the world? The United States is not a good one! A few days ago, Yellen said that it was the low prices of Chinese commodities that led to the bankruptcy of American enterprises. It's really nothing to do!
Therefore, in the next 10 years, we will still face internal and external development pressure.
First of all, if the mainland's economy can develop at a high speed, of course, it will be able to transform its industry from traditional industries to high-end science and technology industries, and then we will break down the technological barriers between the United States and Western countries. To put it bluntly, that is, the mainland will rob the United States and Western countries of their jobs, so that they will not be able to cut leeks.
In the 80s of the 20th century, the development of the Japanese economy can be described as crazy, and selling Tokyo could buy the entire United States. In order to restrict the development of Japan's economy, the United States forced Japan to sign the Plaza Agreement in 1985. After Japan's interest rate hike, Japan's exports were blocked, and it has lost 30 years of development.
We must know that Laos and the United States are now doing everything they can to restrain the mainland's economic development, and in the future they will only say that they will go too far. It can be said that whether it is technological blockade or decoupling and chain breaking, those are all common tricks used by the United States.
At this time, some netizens will say: When the time comes, will the United States force us to sign an agreement just as it did with Japan? The reason why Japan wants to sign the Plaza Agreement is because Japan is excessively dependent on the United States politically and militarily.
We are not more than 100 years ago, the mainland's trade focus is shifting, the mainland's foreign exchange control is more stringent, and the international status of the mainland's renminbi is also significantly improving. It can be said that the current Sino-US economy is a game, and it is not an excessive dependence of A on B. Therefore, from this point of view, the mainland will never become a second Japan, but it will face greater development pressure from the United States.
In addition, China's economy is currently under pressure from weak expectations. First of all, due to the declining population, the mainland's traditional industries will face multiple unfavorable factors such as an inflection point in growth. For example, if the population is declining, who will sell the houses in the future? Therefore, stabilizing the housing market is a major thorny issue facing the mainland at present.
Second, due to the instability of the international environment, people are more conservative about investment and consumption. To put it bluntly, everyone is not willing to spend money, but is more willing to save. This will also lead to a shortage of domestic demand on the mainland. So how to promote domestic demand? This is also a major problem that the mainland will face in the future.
But as long as the thinking does not slip, there are always more ways than difficulties, and in the past few decades, haven't we broken the situation one by one in the midst of many difficulties?
Finally, the general trend of China's economic development in the future will not change, and it is just around the corner to become the world's largest economy. However, we should not take it lightly, and we must despise the enemy strategically and attach importance to the enemy tactically. Because only in this way will we walk more steadily.
The fourth technological revolution is really coming, and the future will not be born in China, but in the United States. Who do you think will lead the world's fourth technological revolution?
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a large Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 20 years, has been reported by Sohu.com, Netease Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, Baidu and other well-known media platforms, good at financial knowledge analysis, entrepreneurial guidance!