There are fewer children, there are more moths, and the kindergarten collects money and runs away, which is more magical than the closure of the gym

Hello everyone, I'm Blue and White.

Unexpectedly, the prepayment running model, which was carried forward by the gym teacher Dazhuang and the barber shop jacky teacher, has spread from the confinement center, early education, interest classes, to the kindergarten.

Of course, it's all private, and it's all closed on and on, without the slightest defense.

There is a kindergarten in Nanjing, parents send their children to school at 8 o'clock, and at 10 o'clock they receive a call saying that they are out of business, and they are notified to pick up their children, and they will not refund the tuition fees of almost 10,000 yuan.

A kindergarten in Beijing, the director suddenly lost contact, two days ago was still collecting tens of thousands of tuition, normal classes during the day, the air conditioner was dismantled at night, a check on the Internet, the legal person has also changed, this look is organized and planned.

There is a saying that from Nanjing to Beijing, the principal is better than the parents.

This is still a recent thing, search for kindergartens, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Dalian, Wuhan have.

Local governments are also troubled by this.

A few days ago, a kindergarten in Zhengzhou closed down, the mayor's hotline, Xiaoli helped, all the methods were tried, and Zhengzhou High-tech Zone urgently sent a letter to parents.

The letter announced the list of 67 legal and compliant kindergartens, and also specifically reminded that the school is unstable, and there is a hidden danger of "running away" at any time.

Personally, I understand that if you choose a kindergarten that is not on the white list, the Education Bureau will not be able to manage it.

The closure of kindergartens is not new, and everyone is numb, everyone knows that there are fewer children.

The sharp decline in newborns began in 2020, when only 12 million were born, and in 2023, when these children entered kindergartens, the number of kindergartens decreased by 14,800, and with the decrease in 2022, the number disappeared by 20,000 in two years.

But the reason is not just that there are fewer children.

The ups and downs of the birth population in a short period of time are too exciting, and the policy can't respond at all.

From 2008 to 2015, between 15 million and 17 million children were born each year, and the fertility rate was extremely stable.

But since 2016, it has begun to rise and fall.

After letting go of the second child, 17.86 million people were born, and another 17.23 million people were born in 2017.

At that time, the obstetrics department was crowded, the corridor couldn't lie down, and the queue for entering the park quarreled and spent money to find a relationship.

Unexpectedly, after the outbreak of the second child, the first child could not be connected, and it fell all the way down at a rate of nearly two million per year, and there were only 9.02 million last year.

This tidal change has made the policy very passive.

Originally, they were complaining about the difficulty of entering the kindergarten, and scholars and experts all called for a large-scale expansion of the kindergarten to solve the problem of going to school that the masses were anxious about.

Okay, then build, build a big building.

In 2017, the four departments issued the "Third Phase of Preschool Education Action Plan", which proposed for the first time that by 2020, the coverage rate of inclusive kindergartens should reach about 80%.

In November 2018, it was further required that "provinces with a low proportion of children in public kindergartens should gradually increase the proportion of children in public kindergartens, and by 2020, the proportion of children in public kindergartens will reach 50% in principle".

This is the famous 5080 policy, the Ministry of Education clearly put the first three years of gross enrollment rate of 85%, inclusive kindergarten coverage rate of 80% and public kindergarten proportion of 50% of the three indicators, included in the local assessment and accountability system.

Anything, as long as it involves accountability and assessment, you know, if it is not done absolutely, it will never be completed.

So we see two sets of numbers:

1. In 2021, the number of kindergartens in the country reached 295,000, an increase of 128,000 or 76.8% over 2011.

2. About 80% of the new kindergartens in the country are concentrated in the central and western regions, and about 60% are distributed in rural areas, of which public kindergartens increased by 149.7% over 2011.

This leads to a direct reversal of supply and demand.

On the one hand, the number of newborns has dived, and on the other hand, the number of kindergartens has nearly doubled in 10 years.

On the one hand, the population of the eastern coastal cities has been gathering in the past 10 years, and on the other hand, the rural areas in the central and western regions have lost population, and kindergartens have increased the most.

At the same time, the number of public kindergartens increased by 1.5 times, when there are many children, the well water does not violate the river water, the high-priced private kindergartens do not worry about the source of students, there are fewer children, and the public is still dissatisfied, who still goes to the private?

The fluctuation in the number of newborns, and the reversal of supply and demand due to policy boosts, are just laying the groundwork for the explosion of private kindergartens.

The real blow to the soul is the epidemic.

Children cannot enter the kindergarten at home, and the education fee cannot be collected.

Shangguan News reported that in a 2022 survey by the Preschool Education Professional Committee of the China Association for Private Education, kindergartens with debts of more than 500,000 yuan accounted for 38.2%, and more than 12% of kindergartens had debts of more than 1.6 million yuan. Only 1.5% of kindergartens are debt-free.

Some people say, don't listen to nonsense on the Internet, our kindergarten is still full.

This is actually an illusion brought about by the movement of people.

The number of kindergartens in the country has only begun to decrease in 2022, but in the northeast, where the population is lost, the node is even higher.

For example, Liaoning, which began to decrease in 2018, closed 1,376 kindergartens in 5 years, and Heilongjiang began to shrink in 2020, with a decline of 3.51% in 2022.

However, in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, where the population flows, kindergartens are still growing.

Cities and rural areas are not the same.

According to the China Education Statistical Yearbook, the number of kindergartens in rural areas has been decreasing since 2018, and the number of kindergartens in urban areas has only begun to decrease since 2022.

For example, Linquan, Anhui Province, which is known as the largest county in terms of population, closed 50 private kindergartens at one time last year, of which 12 were voluntarily suspended, and 38 did not actually enroll students.

Even in counties with large registered populations, rural children are all outflowing, and they can't do it anymore.

Some people also say, why did you build so many kindergartens in the first place?

When we are reviewing, we must understand one thing, no one can open the eye of the sky.

It is precisely in 2015-2018 that the rapid growth of newborns has increased rapidly, the urbanization rate has increased rapidly, the shed has been demolished, housing prices have skyrocketed, from the first line to the third and fourth lines, the expansion of new urban areas, and the acceleration of the rural population into the city, which has exacerbated the shortage of kindergartens and scolding on the Internet.

And the expansion, incorporation, and increase of the kindergarten to the standard of 5080 cannot be completed in a year and a half.

Finally, I tried my best to complete the goal in 2020, but I didn't think about it, and the young man directly backstabbed him and didn't give birth.

The public is not afraid, it can be withdrawn and stopped, small-class teaching, and the private one is when the monk hits the clock for a day, seeing that the wind is not in the right direction, the hole in the business is covered by acting skills, and a shot is changed to a place, and a golden cicada comes out of the shell, what can you do to me?

You will find that the endings that seem outrageous now are often caused by multiple interacting factors.

Plummeting fertility expectations among young people, long-term expansion plans and short-term neonal reversal of the "term mismatch", urban-rural population imbalance caused by urbanization, and divergent business strategies between the public and private sectors have made the already declining student population even more vulnerable.

The combination of factors makes the future more unpredictable.

So now the wind direction has changed again.

At the end of November last year, the Hunan Provincial Department of Education issued a notice proposing that no new kindergartens should be added in rural areas in principle.

At the high-level meeting in March this year, it was proposed that "it is necessary to adapt to demographic changes and the process of new urbanization, and look forward to the changes in the demand for compulsory education".

We should avoid primary and secondary schools, which, like kindergartens, are unprepared for the impact of demographic change.

After the withdrawal and merger, it is inconvenient to pick up and drop off the school, so should we do boarding school? Will the redundant teachers be transferred or dismissed? The small-class teaching, the labor cost, the maintenance of the campus hardware facilities, and the financial budget should also be prepared in advance.

Another point, the magic of kindergarten running away is that no one could have imagined that the education industry with its own halo could lower the lower limit to the level of beauty salons, gyms, car washes.

The prepaid model of other industries is to eat people's "loss aversion".

In behavioral economics, throwing away 100 yuan is stronger than getting 100 yuan, and the aversion to loss is much greater than the preference for the same gain, rushing 1000 to get 200 free, which will make people feel the urge to miss out and no longer have.

But this set of theories cannot be applied to the education industry.

Teaching and educating people naturally has the attribute of public welfare, if the school can run away with tuition fees, who else can I trust?

Now it is kindergarten, nursery and early education, and the next interest classes, research camps, private primary and secondary schools, and vocational schools all need to be dealt with in advance.

In fact, not only private kindergartens, including private hospitals, suspended real estate, and new automobile forces that have stopped production and closed down, the times have become too fast.

The difference is: some people will deal with the aftermath decently, and some people will hide from the world.

It is better to put your hope in the humanity discovered by your conscience than to draw a red line that is forbidden to be touched.

Don't worry, run one and catch one, you see if he can run or not.

I'm Lan Bai, let's talk about this today, and we'll see you next time.