Suddenly, the United States has another "moth...... Fellow, don't go! The China Securities Regulatory Commission has "corrected the error."

  Value Line | produce 

    Hotspot | Column 

Bian Jiang, Xiaojin| author 

   Jing Ke| edit

Value line guide

Over the weekend, the bailout policy went one step further! The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a complete suspension of the lending of restricted shares.

Looking back on the week of bailing out the market, it is thrilling and breathtaking! The Shanghai Stock Exchange has returned from approaching 2,700 points to 2,900 points. However, many investors said that they bought at 2700 and lost at 2900.

There is a joke that if you buy PetroChina, the index is 2900, the money is back to 3500, and you are in KTV, and if you buy the prefix, the index is 2900, and the money is back to 2900, and you are in the live broadcast room......

Save the "own son" first, and then what?

This weekend, the United States has another "moth......

China Securities Regulatory Commission: Suspend the lending of restricted shares completely

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has further strengthened the supervision of securities lending and borrowing business and completely suspended the lending of restricted shares.

In order to implement the investor-oriented regulatory concept and strengthen the supervision of the lending of restricted shares, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has further optimized the securities lending mechanism after full demonstration and evaluation. Specifically, the following includes: first, the lending of restricted shares will be completely suspended, and second, the market-based declaration of refinancing securities will be adjusted from real-time availability to next-day availability, so as to limit the efficiency of securities lending and lending. Due to factors such as system adjustments, the first measure will be implemented from January 29, and the second measure will be implemented from March 18.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges simultaneously announced that, with the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, in order to further optimize the securities lending system, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges decided to suspend the lending of allotted shares by strategic investors within the promised holding period. Loan contracts that have not been concluded before the implementation of this notice shall not be extended upon expiration. This notice will come into force on January 29, 2024.

After a long time, I finally started. Note that it is a complete suspension, restricted shares cannot be lent, and another loophole has been blocked.

In addition, the market-based declaration of refinancing securities will be adjusted from real-time availability to next-day availability, which will be much less efficient and the cost will rise sharply.

In short, the correction of errors one by one began!

The ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which have continued to decline recently, are the hardest hit areas of securities lending, and whether this policy can reverse the decline of the trend of entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship is worth continuing to pay attention to.

In this regard, Liu Yuhui, a well-known economist, posted in the circle of friends that the suspension of the lending of restricted shares will take effect from January 29, but those that have been lent before cannot be extended and must be returned before expiration, which is very good.

Securities lending is adjusted from real-time declaration to next-day availability, which means that if you borrow a bond from a brokerage today, you will not be able to sell it in real time, but sell it the next day, that is, T+1, and the limit is intraday T0. This was implemented from March 18 and gave a month and a half for quantitative adjustments to the strategy.

Operationally speaking, T+1 is nothing more than paying one or two more days of coupon interest, which is about the same as the original. However, from the perspective of the disk, the intraday sealing rate will be greatly improved.

T+1 means that there is no securities lending mechanism. If you declare today that you can only get the securities tomorrow, in case the market rises tomorrow, you will lose money in securities borrowing, in order to prevent losses tomorrow, the best way is for you to buy stocks today to hedge. In other words, the safe way to borrow and lend securities is to buy first, so that the securities borrowing and lending is a toothless tiger.

What else happened this weekend?

1. The United States has another "moth"!

In the latest news, the Biden administration is taking major steps to make it mandatory for U.S. cloud computing companies to verify the identities of foreign users, which will have a significant impact on tech giants such as Amazon's AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the Biden administration would propose requiring U.S. cloud computing companies to determine whether foreign entities are accessing U.S. data centers to train AI models.

"We can't allow non-state actors, China, or people we don't want access to our cloud computing systems to train their models," Raimondo said. We have implemented export controls on chips. U.S. cloud computing data centers also make heavy use of chips, and we must also consider shutting down this path that could involve malicious activity. ”

Gartner: Worldwide IaaS Public Cloud Services Market Share, in USD millions, 2022

The Biden administration's restrictions on cloud service providers in the United States can be described as hurtful to others. Among U.S. cloud service providers, Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure are the largest in the market, both of which have a significant presence in the Chinese market and are expected to be the most impacted.

According to the "China Public Cloud Service Market (Second Half of 2022) Tracking" report released by IDC, Amazon Web Services ranks fifth in China's domestic public cloud IaaS and IaaS+PaaS market share, and compared with the first half of 2022 report released by IDC, the proportion of Amazon Web Services has increased;

In the statistics of Chinese enterprises going overseas to use overseas public cloud IaaS resources, the IDC report shows that Amazon Web Services occupies an absolute leading position with a proportion of nearly eighty percent.

According to industry insiders, if the United States will prevent (Chinese users) from using AWS, Azure, etc. to train large AI models, this will undoubtedly benefit Huawei's Ascend ecosystem.

2. Bundesbank: The German economy can hardly withstand the impact of "decoupling" from China

On January 28, experts from the German Bundesbank of the German Central Bank said a few days ago that Germany has close economic and trade relations with China, and forcibly "decoupling" from China will have an unbearable serious impact on the German economy, especially German industry. The article, written by a number of experts from the Deutsche Bundesbank, said that in recent years, many German industrial enterprises have achieved high sales and profits through production in China, and exports to China have become an important profit channel for these German enterprises. In the long run, therefore, leaving China will entail significant commercial and economic costs for German companies. German companies will miss out on China as a "major sales market", and many supply chains will have to be restructured at the expense of efficiency.

3. The third delisted stock in 2024 is coming

The third delisted stock in 2024 is coming, *ST Oceanwide (000046) announced on the evening of January 26 that the company received the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's "Decision on the Termination of the Listing of Oceanwide Holdings Co., Ltd.", and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange decided to terminate the listing of the company's shares.

From a stage high of 3.39 yuan/share in September 2023 to 0.38 yuan/share today, *ST Oceanwide's share price has fallen by nearly 90%, and the total market value is only 1.975 billion yuan.

The actual controller of Oceanwide Holdings is Lu Zhiqiang, who was also a man of the hour, and his net worth is stronger than Xu Jiayin. Netizens sighed: The flower drama interprets a period of memory and feelings, and the protagonists of the era have left the scene one after another. Oceanwide failed to reorganize, and another big man with a story didn't stand up.

4. Zhongji Innolight: 2 billion yuan-2.3 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 63.4%-87.91% year-on-year

Zhongji InnoLight released its 2023 annual performance forecast on January 26, and it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2 billion yuan to 2.3 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 63.40%-87.91% year-on-year.

Since 2023, the surge in AI computing power demand and related capital expenditures has driven a significant increase in the demand for high-speed optical modules such as 800G, and accelerated the pace of technological iteration of high-speed optical module products. During the reporting period, benefiting from the significant increase in the proportion of shipments of high-end products such as 800G and the continuous optimization of product design, the company's product revenue, gross profit margin and net profit margin have further increased steadily.

Save the "own son" first, and then what?

This week's A-share bailout, reverberating!

In just a few days, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has returned to 2,900 points from approaching 2,700 points, but many investors said that they bought at 2,700 and lost at 2,900......

This time, the national team is iron-hearted to protect the plate, but every day it pulls PetroChina, pulls the prefix, pulls the central state-owned enterprises, and pulls the bank. As a result, a number of small-cap stocks and track stocks have been pulled apart!

Last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index was red, but the ChiNext Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and the Beijing Stock Exchange all fell by more than 2%, and this market is really too extreme.

It can be seen from the flash crash of WuXi AppTec that the current market confidence is still extremely weak, and there are soft bones everywhere!

In addition, the recent A-share science and technology innovation and semiconductor pullback is deep, and I am embarrassed to see that Philadelphia Semiconductor has hit a record high.

In a word, U.S. stocks are rising very much in the United States (technology elephants are dancing), and A-shares are also very "our characteristics" (relying on the "pro-son" of state-owned enterprises to block the downside).

Market participants have summed up the following points: 1. The "pro-son" chips are relatively clean, and the funds are less pushed; 2. The "pro-son" surge can stabilize the Shanghai Composite Index the fastest; 3. The "pro-son" can better come up with policies to guide the stock price rise, such as the policy on the market value management and assessment of central enterprises introduced this week.

In the future, how will the road to rescue the market be interpreted?

First of all, will there be a continuous bailout in the future? At the same time, we must make the bailout an effective bailout, judging from the securities lending restrictions recently announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, this time we are really willing to find ways to do things, and there should be more improvement rules in the future;

Secondly, the country's understanding of the stock market should be that there should be no systemic risk, and that it must be supported by strength and funds, but not to intervene too deeply, if the intervention is too deep, it will have no market behavior, and improve the rules and rule of law in all aspects;

Finally, it is not only necessary to save the stock market, but more importantly, to save the real economy. We can no longer let the profits of real enterprises continue to decline, the unemployment rate continues to rise, and it continues to be difficult to make money, which leads to the end of the entire capital flow to continue to form a closed loop.

Just now, CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the policy of stabilizing the capital market has focused on improving market expectations in the near future, and since the beginning of the year, the market liquidity cycle chain negative feedback process has been effectively blocked.

First of all, the securities regulatory authorities responded to market concerns in a timely manner, the investment side reform measures are expected to accelerate the launch, the real estate sector support policies have increased significantly, it is expected that there will still be interest rate cuts in February, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission continues to emphasize the return of investors in listed central enterprises, the role of central enterprises in the ballast is highlighted, and the policies to improve the business environment are frequent, and market confidence is expected to gradually recover. Secondly, the quasi-"equalization" fund broke the negative feedback, the pressure of snowball knock-in and quantitative liquidation was significantly eased, and the process of equalization of institutional holdings was accelerated. Finally, with the successive implementation of annual report performance forecasts, the performance risk in the fourth quarter is fully released, and the rebound window period will still show the characteristics of transactional funds.

At the end of last year, CITIC Securities continued to shout the opportunity of the dual main lines of medicine and technology for several weeks, but at the beginning of this year, technology and medicine continued to fall sharply, and central enterprises and high dividends rose sharply, and CITIC Securities couldn't help but start to turn.

For investors, it is best to balance the allocation of high-quality companies, and do not keep chasing the rise, otherwise it will only be a failure in the end.

annex

The disclosure of the 2023 annual report of A-shares is opened, focusing on pre-increase and pre-decrease!

1

March 26

In the evening of the evening, Jucan Optoelectronics and Compass released 2023

Annual report, open A

shares 2023

The curtain of annual report disclosure. 2

All companies grew significantly in the fourth quarter.

The number of companies that have issued annual reports has exceeded 1,000. According to the statistics of the Value Line Research Institute, as of 2024

Year 1

28 May

At noon, there were 1010 in total

The company announced its earnings forecast for last year.

1010

The total net profit of the company is expected to be 4,589

billion (only the lower limit of the estimated net profit, the same below), the average profit of each company is 4.5

Hundred million.

According to the lower limit of performance growth, 661

home year-on-year growth, 345

Home Slide, 4

Home flat. 259

The year-on-year growth of more than 100%

，277

30%-100% growth

115

The performance of the company fell by more than 100% year-on-year

，191

The performance of the company fell by 30%-100% year-on-year

Between.

16

companies 2023

The annual full-year performance increased by 10%.

times more. Another 19

The company's performance changes fell by more than 1000%

(See table below).

2023

The annual pre-increase TOP30

2023

Annual pre-reduction TOP30

Judging by the specific profits, there are a total of 5

Home A

The net profit of the stock company exceeded 100

100 million: Kweichow Moutai, Gree Electric Appliances, COSCO Shipping Holdings, Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, Lixun Precision, a total of 8

The company lost more than 20 of its shares

100 million: BAIC Blue Valley, China Southern Airlines, Dima Co., Ltd., Chinalco International, Power Xinke, Cialis, Sinochem International, Everbright Jiabao.

2023

Top 20 annual forecast profits

2023

TOP20 annual forecast loss

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#fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body: not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);-- weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}