Recently, under the guidance of the China Household Appliances Research Institute, the "2023 Annual Report on China's Home Appliance Industry" compiled by the National Household Appliances Industry Information Center was released. The full report will be published in the full text of Household Appliances magazine. The following is an excerpt from the report.
The manufacturing industry adjusted its structure and grew steadily, and actively responded to the new situation of foreign trade
In 2023, China's economy maintained an overall recovery momentum, and as of the fourth quarter, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate has maintained growth for six consecutive quarters. From the accumulation of "quantity" to the improvement of "quality", it is the objective law of the development of the market economy. At present, China is in a critical period of transformation of its development mode, and the manufacturing industry is accelerating towards high-end, intelligent and green.
In 2023, the mainland's trade surplus in goods will narrow year-on-year, but the foreign trade structure will continue to optimize from the perspective of the nature, destination and product type of export enterprises. In the fourth quarter, under the base effect, low overseas inventory and other factors, the export growth rate recovered moderately, and the export growth rate of mechanical and electrical products turned positive. In view of the current overcapacity of some mechanical and electrical products and the situation of manufacturers reducing prices and inventory, on the one hand, it is still necessary to adhere to the layout of overseas sales channels and improve the construction of independent brands, and on the other hand, it is necessary to actively explore overseas e-commerce models and meet demand through relevant platforms.
Stimulating consumption is still the focus of stabilizing growth, making up for shortcomings and improving quality to cope with demographic changes
Under the pressure of exports, the role of the main engine of consumption has become more prominent, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is 82.5%. However, it should be pointed out that the sharp rebound in consumption growth is achieved from a low base, and from the perspective of a number of macro indicators, the current terminal demand in the consumer market is weak, and the problem of insufficient consumer confidence is still prominent. Statistics from the retail sub-sectors of commodities above designated size show that real estate-related consumption such as household appliances and household appliances is still weak. In 2024, stimulating consumption will still be the top priority for stable growth, and the specific measures related to promoting consumption-related policies involving the home appliance industry will include: vigorously developing digital consumption, green consumption, and healthy consumption, actively cultivating new consumption growth points such as smart homes and domestic "trendy products", and promoting bulk consumption such as electronic products, while promoting the trade-in of consumer goods with improved technology, energy consumption, emission and other standards as the traction; With the expansion of new consumer demand, the continuous improvement of the technical content of consumer goods, the application and iteration of new technologies in the future, and the green and intelligent end products and manufacturing processes will be the main upgrading direction of the home appliance industry.
At present, the population development of the mainland is characterized by a declining birthrate, an aging population, and a regional population increase or decrease. At present, there are nearly 300 million elderly people in the mainland, and the silver economy involves a wide range, a long industrial chain, diversified business formats, and huge potential. In view of the changes in the structure of the consumer population and the increase in the elderly population, the consumer goods market needs to make more refined demand docking to make up for the shortcomings of related products such as elderly care and infant care. The continuous upgrading of residents' consumption structure and the improvement of housing conditions will also further promote the transformation of related household appliances and household consumption to high-end.
The domestic market for household appliances rebounded slightly, and exports maintained growth
Looking at the performance of the home appliance market throughout the year, although there was a lack of sales momentum in the second half of the year, the overall scale of the whole year achieved a slight recovery. According to data from the National Household Appliances Industry Information Center, the retail sales of household appliances in the domestic market were 773.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. In terms of exports, exports to the United States have tightened, but trade ties with emerging markets such as ASEAN, Russia, and Africa have become closer, with data from the General Administration of Customs showing that the annual export value of household appliances was 617.4 billion yuan (RMB), a year-on-year increase of 9.9%.
Major appliances: color TVs are declining, air conditioners are selling well, and the internal structure of the category has been adjusted
The sales of major appliances will achieve a slight increase in 2023 overall, especially the hot sales of air conditioning products, which provides a driving force for the growth of major appliances. From the perspective of product structure, the performance and functions of each category have continued the trend of upgrading, especially the continuous expansion of health attributes, providing consumers with a better user experience.
The weak demand for domestic color TV markets has not been reversed in 2023, although online sales have remained basically stable, offline sales have continued to shrink significantly since 2020, dragging down the overall market. In recent years, the diversification of audio-visual products has developed rapidly, and small-screen devices are not only more in line with today's consumers' viewing habits of video content, but also have the incomparable convenience of TV in terms of social attributes. in addition,Color TVs that can't be canceled boot advertisements have been widely criticized,In the current situation that the profit model of the industry is difficult to change,The rigid demand attribute of color TV has been reduced。 Under the shrinking industry market, the market share has gathered to the head brands, and the market share of the double-line TOP5 brands has increased again, while the domestic head brands have vigorously explored overseas markets and continuously improved the overseas production layout. In terms of product trends, large-screen continues to make great progress, especially 85-inch and above models are recognized by more and more consumers. In terms of new technologies, Mini LED products are still the biggest highlight of the year, and the industry in the trough can see that the market demand for high-end products is still strong. In the era of super interconnection,Picture quality experience is no longer the only focus of users' attention,The color TV industry urgently needs to break through the inherent thinking,Accelerate the embrace of new technologies,Actively build the future of the industry。
The offline market of air conditioners maintained the trend of product upgrades, with the overall average price increasing by 2.5% year-on-year, while the average price of online channels fell by 3.5% year-on-year under fierce promotions, among which the average price of 1.5P hang-up and 3P cabinets declined most significantly. In terms of product functions, the current enterprises are focusing on the layout of products that comprehensively regulate indoor air quality, and air conditioners are loaded with functions such as humidifiers, circulating fans, purifiers, and fresh air systems. Self-cleaning is currently the dimension with the highest penetration rate, while the fresh air function is the dimension with relatively fast penetration growth. From the perspective of applicable space, kitchen air conditioners have exploded in a concentrated manner, mainstream air conditioning brands have product layouts, and some traditional kitchen appliance brands have also begun to set foot in this untapped field. In addition, the central air conditioner, which has more advantages in overall aesthetics and temperature control uniformity, is accepted by more and more ordinary consumers, and manufacturers are also accelerating the promotion of central air conditioning in the sinking channel and hardcover channel. At present, the sales of central air conditioning in mainland China have reached 100 billion yuan, and household central air conditioning accounts for about 40%, and it is expected to usher in rapid growth in the next five years.
The market performance of ice washing products is as stable as ever, relying on the replacement demand released by the huge number of holdings. Large volume and multi-door are the mainstream preferences of consumers for refrigerator products, and refrigerators above 400L and multi-door refrigerators have maintained high growth online and offline, and the sales growth of multi-door refrigerators in the low-tier market is better than that of the first- and second-tier markets. The appearance and structure of the product are more beautiful and modern, the appearance color has a tendency to return to white (light color), and the product volume and structure continue to transition to pure flat and embedded. In terms of the core preservation effect, the mainstream brands of refrigerators have created preservation technologies with their own characteristics, and continue to innovate and iterate. Washing machine products continue to concentrate on 10KG capacity, and more than 90% of offline drum washing machines have more than 10KG products. In order to meet the growing drying needs of consumers, manufacturers have launched wash-dry sets or wash-drying duplex products. According to statistics, in 2023, the retail volume of washing and drying products will increase by 49% year-on-year.
Kitchen and bathroom appliances: the overall market rebounded, and the category strengthened innovation and upgrading
The kitchen and bathroom appliances market will rebound as a whole in 2023, with overall better performance in the first half of the year than in the second half of the year, and a year-on-year negative in the fourth quarter. On the one hand, the proportion of online sales in the low-price segment has increased, and the quality-price ratio products are welcomed, on the other hand, the proportion of offline high-end product sales has increased, reflecting the consumer's pursuit of quality life.
Specific to the product trends of various categories, range hoods and gas stoves continue to upgrade to large air volume, high air pressure, large fire value and high thermal efficiency; in terms of shape and structure, ultra-thin and low-suction, flat range hoods are more fully integrated with home furnishing; in terms of color, white kitchen appliances that are in line with modern home decoration are emerging. In the dishwasher market, sales of built-in, large-set, zone/layered washers and primary water efficiency products have increased significantly. The disinfection cabinet market has bottomed out, embedded products are welcomed, and segmented products for different groups of people still need to be explored in the future. Water purifier products have been upgraded, large-flux products have grown significantly, high-end water demand has increased, and the proportion of water purifiers with integrated heat purifiers and water purifiers with mineralization functions has increased. In terms of water heaters, electric heating 60L and combustion heating 16L products still dominate, but products with larger liters also showed a slight increase. Ultra-thin appearance and high power are the main directions for electric water heater upgrades, while heating products use technologies such as water servo and bottom fan to improve user experience.
In terms of integrated kitchen appliances, the sales of integrated stoves have entered a downward range, but the products have improved in terms of smoke absorption and exhaust effect, cooking fire and steaming and baking effect, the proportion of integrated stoves in disinfection cabinets is stable, and the performance of independent integrated stoves for steaming and baking is outstanding. In the integrated kitchen appliances, the integrated dishwasher track continues to expand, and the product continues the development trend of large sets of dishwashers. The integrated cooking center with the idea of "split design" and "integrated linkage" will explode in 2023, with the modular design improving the space utilization rate, and the intelligent linkage between modules greatly improving the cooking efficiency, which is favored by consumers of "kitchen replacement". Driven by the idea of kitchen appliance integration, the leading brands of kitchen appliances will release new brand strategies in 2023, and the full-scene solution of kitchen appliances will become a new engine for the growth of the industry.
Household appliances: the demand is insufficient under the high base, and many categories have entered the adjustment period
In 2023, the overall sales of household appliances will decline, and the pull effect of online shopping festivals such as "Double 11" will not be as expected. The sales scale of air fryers, which exploded last year, will be "cut in half" in 2023, and if its impact is excluded, the annual sales of household appliances will decline by 3.1% year-on-year. With the concentrated release of residents' travel demand, consumers' attention to home scenarios has decreased, and the partial overdraft of demand for household appliances in the past three years has constituted the main reason for the decline in market size. However, with the increase of consumers' social activities, personal image products such as hair dryers and razors have better market performance. With the rise of outdoor sports, camping and other activities, the related markets have expanded rapidly, and outdoor fans and electric cups have brought new growth points. Compared with major appliances and installed household appliances, consumers have a strong randomness in purchasing household appliances, and in terms of "planting grass", content platforms have an advantage, and emerging e-commerce platforms have become an important sales channel for household appliances. The fierce market competition and the continuous maturity of product technology have driven the average price of some categories to decline, and the average online price of wall breakers, soybean milk machines, garment steaming machines, etc. has decreased by more than 10% compared with the previous year. However, the pace of technological upgrading has not stopped, and the growth rate of trendy single products is still considerable, and consumption upgrading is the general trend.
The sales of small kitchen appliances that have performed well in the past three years will turn significantly cold in 2023, and the sales of cooking and water materials will almost decline across the board. Rice cookers, electric pressure cookers, electric kettles, etc., which have strong rigid demand attributes, have a relatively narrow decline. The online price of rice cookers is basically stable, and the price has risen at the end of the year, while the offline has maintained a high-end direction that is different from online. The top three brands have a solid share advantage, but Japanese and Korean brands almost monopolize the high-end rice cooker market, and the price gap with domestic brands continues to widen. It can be seen that China's rice cooker market does not lack high-end purchasing power, and domestic brands urgently need to improve their high-end competitiveness. In terms of product structure, with the decrease in the number of people per household and the gradual popularity of low-sugar and low-carb food concepts, the specifications of electric cookers have shown a trend of miniaturization, with the total retail volume of online 3L and 4L accounting for nearly 60%, and the volume and price of offline 2L and 3L have both risen, and small-volume products have gradually become refined and high-end. In the future, environmental protection technologies such as intelligent identification of ingredients, zero coating, product design to adapt to aging, and the integration of multi-category functions will be the development trend of small kitchen appliances.
The growth rate of the clean appliance market will slow down in 2023, but the expansion of brand stores will boost the high growth of the offline market. Sweeping robots and floor scrubbers are still the two major pulling forces in the cleaning market, and the share of push rod vacuum cleaners has rebounded slightly in the second half of the year, and the price has finally rebounded, and the market share will stabilize in the future. The market increment of sweeping robots this year is limited, and the increase in sales is mainly due to the rapid occupation of the market by high-priced all-round base station products, contributing more than seventy percent of the sales share. However, with the fierce competition in the market, it is expected that the average price of all-round base station products will drop to below 3,000 yuan. The annual growth rate of floor scrubbers still leads the market of cleaning appliances and even the overall household appliances. The price of single-model products has been greatly reduced to less than 2,000 yuan, attracting more consumers, but the overall price reduction of floor scrubbers has slowed down quarter by quarter. In terms of product technology, it remains to be seen whether "suction-free scrubbing" can inject new vitality into the industry. In the fourth quarter, the national and industry standard project plan for floor scrubbers was officially launched, and the constraints of the lack of industry standards will be broken.
Circulation channels: two-way extension to the low-line sinking and layout of urban experience stores
In 2023, the sales of online home appliances will end their high growth, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, and the publicity and performance disclosure of traditional e-commerce on the promotion nodes "Double 11" and "Double 12" will be significantly weakened at the end of the year. The online sales channels of home appliances have tended to diversify in recent years, with Tmall and JD.com continuing to penetrate the offline market, and new sales channels such as Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu are rising rapidly.
In view of the fact that the first- and second-tier markets have become more and more saturated, the timeliness of e-commerce logistics has been improved and the coverage has expanded, which has released space for the further development of the sinking market. On the other hand, home appliance companies and sales platforms are also actively building flagship stores and experience stores in regional central cities, shortening the distance between brands and users by strengthening direct contact points with consumers. As an integral part of the home environment, if the style and tone and modular layout are unified with the furniture and home decoration, the contribution of household appliances to home aesthetics will also be greatly improved. Therefore, home appliance manufacturers are increasingly combining product development and sales with scenario-based applications, especially through scenario-based applications in the sales process, to enhance consumers' personal feelings and promote sales.
Industry outlook: new demand is the cornerstone, and innovation needs to start from consumer demand
It is estimated that the number of household appliances alone in the four categories of color televisions, air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines has reached 2.5 billion units, which can bring a large number of new ones every year. At present, there are a large number of household appliances that have been in service for an extended period of time in residents' homes, which not only causes potential safety hazards, but also has adverse effects in terms of energy efficiency and environmental protection, so a new round of household appliances replacement is urgent and necessary. Production enterprises and circulation channels also need to cooperate with the policy to do a good job in product innovation and channel promotion, in the government, production enterprises, circulation channels "trinity" joint efforts, with upgraded products and broader sales reach, fully stimulate consumer demand.
As the output of the enterprise with exchange value, the product is also the carrier of the consumer's direct experience of the service, and the home appliance industry is currently facing the transformation of consumer demand from "whether there is" to "whether it is good or not", so it is necessary to do a good job in the diversified expansion of product categories and the quality upgrade of product functions. At present, the emerging categories such as dryers, dishwashers, and floor washers, which are growing rapidly in the market, have the characteristics of low ownership and meet the needs of consumption upgrades. However, the upgrading of more mature categories is dominated by gradual innovation, and manufacturers still need to "innovate from consumer demand", rather than "deceiving" consumers through gimmick packaging and exaggerated publicity.
The combination of online and offline sales model has become the consensus of circulation channels, and home appliance manufacturers are also constantly trying to create a sales atmosphere through content platforms, and then undertake through multi-dimensional scenarios such as live broadcast and shelves, so as to realize a new sales model of full-field sales transformation. In the future market, home appliance enterprises need to make comprehensive use of a variety of sales channels, combine a variety of marketing models, and adopt a "three-dimensional" operation and comprehensive promotion in order to obtain better market feedback.