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Text: There is material in the big core
Edit|Big core has material
When the United States realized its dominant position in the semiconductor supply chain, those in power quickly weaponized it against American adversaries, such as China.
China is being targeted by the United States everywhere in the field of chips, and it is now a well-known phenomenon to the public. "Stuck neck" is to describe this situation.
But how long can the dominant United States be triumphant? A similar question was asked on Quora, a Q&A social platform in the United States. A Dutch chip engineer sees the problem thoroughly.
The engineer has extensive experience in the semiconductor industry and has lived in China. He looked at the problem from a more rational perspective and answered the question.
In summary, his views are as follows:
1. ASML, the manufacturer of lithography machines, is the industry leader, but it is weaponized by the United States and used to deal with China, which is in a disadvantaged position;
2. China has the ability to break the situation: objectively speaking, the physical laws of invention and creation are open to the whole world and can be used by anyone; in reality, China has a strong material foundation, a strong attraction to talents from all over the world, and its own scientific research strength is gradually increasing, and there have been new breakthroughs in EUV lithography machines in recent years;
3. In terms of time, China is catching up, and it is only a matter of time before it breaks through the bottleneck. Generally speaking, it is easier to catch up than to innovate, and having a clear goal ahead will lead to more cohesion and confidence.
The Dutch engineer's answer was more general about the time, and the answer of a German netizen gave a more specific prediction time.
He said that China has always maintained the good habit of developing the country in an orderly manner according to the plan, and has never expired by mistake, and the latest plan has included the high-end lithography machine EUV into the development strategy, according to which EUV autonomy can be achieved in 2026.
At present, EUV lithography machine is a top-level chip production equipment, which can produce chips with advanced processes of 5nm and below, which means that it is just needed to enter the field of very high-end scientific and technological equipment development. ASML has mastered its manufacturing technology and achieved "hegemony" in the competition in the field of chips.
The mainland's 14th Five-Year Plan has already been announced and is being implemented, and the results will be seen soon. In other words, there is not much time left for the United States to compete in the field of chips.
In fact, the United States should also be aware of the urgency of time. In recent years, its unreasonable suppression of China in the field of chips is proof of this.
Generally speaking, the United States' means are to carry out "export controls" in a big way under the banner of "national security," and to "blacklist" enterprises that are not pleasing to the eye, that is, to be included in the "entity list." If the intensity is not enough, it will come up with various bills, exert administrative power on a large scale, deter and restrict opponents, and lure capital back to the United States for development.
When Trump was president, he wielded the power in his hands and targeted Huawei in various ways, which is a well-known thing. After Biden took office, he extended the restrictions to the entire industry.
In 2022, Biden has two actions that have attracted the attention of the world. First, in August, he signed into law a controversial CHIPS Act.
He declared that the bill was intended to put the United States back in the field of semiconductor manufacturing.
To this end, it does not hesitate to allocate 52.7 billion US dollars as a financial subsidy, as long as the enterprises that choose to stand in the United States meet the conditions, they will be given money, in addition, there are some preferential tax treatment, and the "pie" of 200 billion US dollars in R&D investment in the future.
If you enjoy the benefits given by the United States, you cannot contribute to China. Eating both ends is not allowed by the United States. Of course, the United States responded to this call by a group of heroes, and the scene was quite vigorous.
However, the return of excitement to excitement has indeed created a lot of pressure on China, but it is difficult for the United States to realize its aspirations 100 percent.
The United States delusionally wants to move the entire industrial chain of the chip industry back to its own home with tens of billions of dollars in subsidies, which is tantamount to a fool's dream. That little money is estimated to be not enough for Intel, TSMC and other bigwigs to grab, and other small and medium-sized enterprises can't even drink soup.
It is said that the United States spent $1 trillion to barely meet the initial investment in the establishment of the industrial chain. If the United States wants to completely kick China out of the industrial chain, it will not only be difficult to do so, but it will also be counterattacked. The United States has lessons to reflect on.
Between 2019 and 2020, the United States has repeatedly "cut off" the supply of chips to China, and it can sell for a while and can't sell for a while. To sell or not to sell seems to have become a hot potato, making the United States turn upside down in its hands.
The reason for this is that American companies pay for the government's actions, and their performance is ugly. For example, in the second quarter of 2020, Qualcomm's profit was miserable, because of the "supply cut", resulting in a 29% decrease in net profit compared with the same period.
U.S. companies are always more sensitive to the market than the U.S. government. They began to examine what the various "export controls" imposed by the US government had brought to them. After all, they are after profit. And historically, the United States has not experienced the lesson of suppressing others and finally losing its dominant position.
Back then, the United States "protected" its satellite technology with operations similar to those used today. As a result, the U.S. market share fell to 50 percent, lost billions of dollars in cooperation, and finally had no choice but to relax restrictions.
However, the United States is like a train on fire, rumbling and rushing forward frantically, and it is impossible to reflect, only to intensify. Biden's second move in 2022 was to add a new and more stringent export control rule in October.
This document has hundreds of pages and a lot of content, in short, it is further expanding the restrictions on China, trying to lock up China's chip technology development, make China stop in this field, and indirectly lock China's artificial intelligence industry.
Everyone knows that the future is the world of artificial intelligence. The fact that the US government would rather lose 800 of its own losses than have a hard time with China shows the viciousness of its heart.
Will China be able to overcome the challenge from the United States? Perhaps China is the only country that can resist the encirclement of the United States.
From the perspective of short-term interests, the United States can hit China, but in the long run, the huge expenses originally used to import chips will be invested in China to promote research and development and achieve breakthroughs.
In October 2023, in terms of chips, the United States once again strengthened export controls to China. American chip companies did not applaud this, but felt worried.
The U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association has made a point to speak out about this, a move that could "harm the U.S. semiconductor ecosystem." In other words, you may have to lift a stone and hit yourself in the foot.
There is an analysis that the control of the United States is, simply put, to delay time. They want to run faster and farther before China breaks through the "stuck neck" and grab a new leading position.
Reference:
The Paper "Tangled Sanctions: Why Does the United States Cut Off the Supply of Chips" but Not Stopping?"
The Paper "What does the landing of the U.S. "Chips Act" mean for China's chip industry"
Beijing News Network "The United States Blocks Chips in China, This Report Reveals the Bottom"
Tiger Sniff "How big is the impact of the United States' escalation of sanctions on China's AI chips?"
Observer.com, "U.S. Official: Continuing to Restrict ASML's Cooperation with Chinese Mainland Is a Top Priority for the President's National Security Adviser"
Notice on Printing and Distributing the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Intelligent Manufacturing