Author丨Today's Construction Machinery Think Tank
Judging from the feedback from agents, with the warming of the temperature and the gradual implementation of investment projects in various places and a slight improvement in the capital after the full resumption of work in April 2024, the overall market is expected to be significantly better than the same period last month, but the market is still in the process of hovering in the recovery period.
1. The domestic market is expected to improve
In the April survey feedback, the subjective market sentiment of agents has improved significantly. In the short term, this month's domestic market is expected to decline in the agent group continued the trend since February, the proportion has declined steadily, but unlike in March, the expected flat group has increased significantly, and the agent's confidence in the domestic excavator market has been significantly repaired, and the proportion of agents expected to increase is about twice that of the previous month.
Figure 1 The overall sales volume of domestic excavators from January to April 2024 is expected by the agent group
59.99% of agents expect the domestic excavator market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in April, a decrease of 10.18 percentage points over the same period in March. 9.09%, 7.27%, 16.36%, 5.45%, 14.55% and 7.27% of agents expect declines of more than 50%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 21%-30%, 11%-20% and 0%-10%. They increased by -1.43, -1.50, 4.08, -6.83, 2.27 and -6.77 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
18.18% of the agents expect the market to be flat year-on-year in April, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points from the previous month, and 21.82% of the agents are expected to increase by 0%-20% year-on-year, continuing the trend of rising in March as a whole, an increase of 11.30 percentage points.
Figure 2 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of overall excavator sales in March 2024 and April 2024
In terms of sub-regions, among the provinces and cities covered by the survey, the expectations of the main markets in Central, Northwest and Southwest China are generally better than the previous month, and in terms of provinces, Xinjiang and other regions have the most obvious improvement.
2. The domestic market is expected to further improve
The mini excavator market is expected to continue the upward trend since the beginning of the year in April '24 and achieve further improvement. However, the concentration of market expectations is not as good as last month, and there are signs of polarization. Compared with the same period in 23 years, the surveyed agents are relatively optimistic about the expectations of the small excavator market, and the proportion of agents who are expected to grow and remain flat has doubled.
Figure 3 In April 2024, the expected choice of agent groups in the domestic small excavator market is month-on-month and year-on-year
58.19% of agents expect the domestic small excavator market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in April 2024, a decrease of 8.49 percentage points from March. There are 5.46%, 12.73%, 12.73%, 20.00% and 7.27% of the agents are expected to decline by more than 50%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 11%-30% and 0%-10% respectively, down 1.56, -5.71, 1.31, 2.81 and 8.52 percentage points lower than the previous month.
14.55% of agents expect the market to be flat year-on-year in April, an increase of 0.51% from the previous month, and 27.27% of agents expect a year-on-year increase, an increase of 7.97 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 4 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of overall sales of mini excavators in March 2024 and April 2024
3. The domestic market is still under pressure in the short term
The domestic medium-sized excavator market in April is expected to improve slightly from the previous month. It is expected that more than 70% of the dealer group will disappear for the first time this month, but most of the agents who are expected to be flat or increase from the expected decline to the expectation of flat or increased are still uncertain about whether the digging market will pick up, and the domestic market for medium-sized excavators in the short term is still under great pressure.
Figure 5 The expected month-on-month and year-on-year choices of dealer groups in the domestic medium-sized excavator market in April 2024
65.46% of the agents expect the domestic mining market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in April, a decrease of 4.71 percentage points from the previous month. There are 9.09%, 12.73%, 12.73%, 5.45%, 10.91% and 14.55% of the agents are expected to decline by more than 50%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 21%-30%, 11%-20% and 0%-10% respectively, an increase of -1.43, 5.71, -3.06, -1.57, -6.63 and 2.27 percentage points respectively over the previous month.
29.09% of the agents are expected to be flat year-on-year, an increase of 6.28 percentage points from the previous month, and 5.45% of the surveyed agents are expected to grow, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 6 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of medium-sized excavator sales in March 2024 and April 2024
In terms of sub-regions, almost all regions of the provinces and cities covered by the survey showed signs of improvement. However, there are some provinces and cities that are relatively pessimistic, most notably Jiangsu and Yunnan provinces.
4. Dig into the expected differentiation of the domestic market
In April, the expectation of the domestic market to improve slightly, compared with March, the degree of polarization of expectations is more obvious, which is directly related to the performance of different channel agents caused by the difference in their own subjective feelings about the market.
Figure 7 Expected month-on-month and year-on-year changes in the expected choice of agents in the domestic large excavator market in April 2024
70.91% of agents expect the domestic market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in April, a decrease of 6.29 percentage points from the previous month. There are 14.55%, 9.09%, 10.91%, 10.91%, 7.27% and 18.18% of the agents are expected to decline by more than 50%, 41%-50%, 31%-40%, 21%-30%, 11%-20% and 0%-10% year-on-year, respectively, an increase of 4.03, 2.07, 0.38, -3.13, -15.54 and 5.90 percentage points over the previous month.
16.36% of agents are expected to be flat year-on-year, an increase of 0.57 percentage points from the previous month, and 12.73% are expected to increase year-on-year, an increase of 5.72 percentage points from the previous month.
Figure 8 Comparison of the expected year-on-year growth rate of overall sales of large excavators in March 2024 and April 2024
In terms of sub-regions, the northeast, northwest and southwest regions are more optimistic than the previous month, while the expectations in East China and other regions are relatively pessimistic compared with the previous month.
5. In the first half of April, the operating rate of customer equipment deteriorated slightly year-on-year
In the first half of April 2024, the proportion of high operating rate (above 70%) was the same as that of the same period of last year, the proportion of medium and high operating rate (50%-70%) decreased by 10.91 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, the proportion of low operating rate (below 40%) deteriorated, increasing by 13.77 percentage points over the same period of last year, and the proportion of medium and low operating rate (40%-50%) increased by 7.02 percentage points compared with the same period of last year.
Figure 9 Comparison of customer equipment utilization rates in early April 2023 and early April 2024
6. In April, new orders for complete machine sales improved significantly year-on-year
In April 2024, the number of new orders for complete machine sales improved significantly year-on-year, and deteriorated slightly month-on-month. 36.36% of agents expect the number of new orders for the whole machine to increase year-on-year, an improvement of 25.97 percentage points over the same period last year.
Figure 10 Comparison of the year-on-year forecast of the sales order volume of the whole machine in March and April 2024
7. In early April, the decline in the transaction price of large and small digs deteriorated slightly
In the short term, the decline in the transaction price of large and small digs deteriorated slightly, and the decline in the transaction price of medium digging narrowed slightly.
In the domestic market in the first half of April 2024, the sales transaction price of large digging decreased by 1.66% month-on-month, the sales transaction price of medium digging decreased by 0.40% month-on-month, and the sales transaction price of small digging decreased by 1.19% month-on-month, deteriorating by 1.21 percentage points.
Figure 11 Month-on-month changes in domestic excavator prices in March and April 2024
8. The inventory situation in the domestic market increased month-on-month
In early April 2024, the average inventory of domestic market channels increased by 6.67% compared with the same period last month. Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30T is 12 units, the average inventory of 19-30T medium-sized excavators is 7 units, and the average inventory of small excavators below 19T is 13 units.
9. In April, the overdue rate of customer repayments is expected to deteriorate slightly
In April 2024, the risk expectation of the channel end of the domestic construction machinery industry is still dominated by increasing expectations, and the majority of manufacturers are not allowed to relax. 69.09% of agents expect the overdue rate of customer repayment to increase compared with March, with the former increasing by 9.49 percentage points from the previous month and 11.95 percentage points from the same period last year.
Figure 12 Comparison of customer repayment overdue rates in March and April 2024 compared to the expected month-on-month comparison
10. At the end of March, the collection rate of customer equipment engineering funds improved slightly
At the end of March 2024, the average collection rate of customer equipment engineering was 49.8%, an improvement of 1 percentage point from the previous month.
Compared with the end of February, the collection rate of customer equipment projects in North China, South China, Central China and Northwest China has improved to varying degrees, and the collection situation in East China and Southwest China has deteriorated slightly month-on-month.
Note: The range of excavator models in this article is: small excavator≤ 18.5t, medium excavator 18.5t~28.5t, large excavator ≥28.5t.
"April China Construction Machinery Circulation Market Monitoring Report"
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Zhuozhong construction machinery media organization
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