Behind the pre-loss of 1.2 billion yuan: Jia Nailiang and Cecilia Cheung can't compare to Dong Yuhui

Text: Internet Jianghu Author: Liu Zhicheng

As an A-share listed company with a tradition of "chasing the wind", Yuanwang Technology has almost never lacked the attention of the capital market.

Because countless investors, including me, are also curious, and at the same time, Yuanwang Technology, which has collected many popular concepts such as "live e-commerce", "Internet celebrity economy", "AIGC" and "short drama", what kind of answer can it summon in the end?

In this regard, Yuanwang Technology has indeed lived up to expectations, and recently handed over a 2023 performance forecast that shocked everyone.

Yuanwang Technology expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 800 million yuan to 1.2 billion yuan in 2023, and a net loss of 800 million yuan to 1.2 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2023, which is even worse than the market performance before the transformation from "Saturday......

Good guys, this is indeed a "shock" in another sense, and the investors who are shaking are about to cry.

After all, the share price of Yuanwang Technology has fallen from the highest point of 23.4 yuan in the year to 5.87 yuan now (closing on February 2......

So the question is, why is Yuanwang Technology, which has chased all the hot outlets, still have no profits, and there is no stock price if they want the stock price? Jia Nailiang, Cecilia Cheung and other star anchor echelons, can't they still do Dongfang Selection and Dong Yuhui? In the end, won't it really be like what shareholders and investors say, only the market can save the stock price of Yuanwang?

Yuanwang Technology, the loss is in the spring of live broadcast e-commerce?

Unlike other listed companies, investors may also need to evaluate how credible the performance data is before studying the financial reports of Yuanwang Technology.

After all, on the issue of information disclosure, in recent years, Yuanwang Technology has had the experience of being issued warning letters and regulatory letters by the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange many times.

For example, in December last year, Yuanwang Technology received the "Decision on Issuing Warning Letters to Foshan Yuanwang Technology Co., Ltd., Yu Hongtao, Xie Rudong, Li Gang, He Jianfeng, and Ma Chao" issued by the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

It is mentioned that the violations of Yuanwang Technology include: the book value of the company's inventory from 2021 to 2022 is inconsistent with the actual situation, some revenue recognition from 2019 to 2020 is inappropriate, the collection of income, profits and accounts receivable is inflated, the external financial assistance is not disclosed in a timely manner, the guarantee of the company and its subsidiaries is not disclosed in a timely manner, and the co-investment with professional investment institutions is not disclosed in a timely manner.

As soon as the news came out at that time, many old shareholders were stupid. In the past, I studied financial investment data such as revenue and inventory for half a day, and you told me that there were problems with these things, so I am afraid that the investment conclusions drawn from this time would have been missed by a thousand miles.

No wonder, an investor who looked at the technology once said depressedly, "As soon as I bought it, I was trapped and waiting for me?"

In fact, if this violation is counted, from 2021 to the present, Yuanwang Technology has been named by the Securities Regulatory Bureau or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for three consecutive years, and warning letters and regulatory letters have been issued to Yu Hongtao and Xie Rudong, including the chairman and general manager.

It's hard not to worry investors about the authenticity behind it......

However, in this regard, according to the observation of the Internet, the profit performance of Yuanwang Technology has hit the highest loss in recent years, so it is almost impossible to question it. As for whether it is a common "performance bath" in the capital market, it may need to be further analyzed. However, judging from the historical performance of consecutive losses of 700 million yuan and 265 million yuan in attributable net profit in 2021 and 2022, the performance forecast can be safely referenced.

Looking at the reason for the loss, the explanation of Yuanwang Technology is very clear, but the information revealed behind it is very interesting.

First of all, one of the reasons for the performance loss mentioned in the preview is that the company has released the 2023 equity incentive plan, plus the 2021 equity incentive plan that is still in the amortization period, with a total equity incentive amortization expense of about 85 million.

If you take a closer look, it is not difficult to see that Yuanwang Technology may be in line with the equity incentive plan in 2023. In other words, its revenue in 2023 may meet the performance assessment target of 30% year-on-year growth in 2022. Correspondingly, the overall performance of Yuanwang Technology in 2023 is to increase revenue but not profits, which is also quite in line with the performance trend of the first three quarters.

From the current point of view, the overall may be in line with the common market development trend of the top live broadcast e-commerce players in 2023 to a certain extent, but the internal operation quality needs to be improved.

On the one hand, from the perspective of horizontal comparison, on January 24, Dongfang Selection released its interim results report for the six months ended November 30, 2023. During the reporting period, Dongfang Selection also increased revenue but did not increase profits, with a total revenue of 2.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.4%, and a net profit of 249 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.4%.

In this regard, Dongfang Selection also attributed the reasons for the decline in profits to: first, the increase in stock option expenses (reflected in employee costs) affected profits, and second, the increase in market input costs.

This is almost consistent with the equity incentive mentioned by Yuanwang Technology and the increase in costs brought about by the completion of the project base represented by Hangzhou Yuanwang X27 PARK, which also proves from the side that 2023 is still a year for live broadcast e-commerce to "make the cake bigger", and the ceiling of market growth has not yet appeared, and the future is still promising.

On the other hand, in terms of business quality, Yuanwang Technology is a bit difficult to reach compared with Dongfang Selection.

As a player who has also made great strides from the traditional business to the live broadcast e-commerce track, Dongfang Selection has previously issued an announcement saying that the board of directors approved the sale, that is, the proposal to sell the education business to the parent company New Oriental, which can be regarded as a complete abandonment of the past. However, Yuanwang Technology is still reluctant to throw away the past, so it has been dragged down by the impact of the former shoe business.

For example, in response to the performance loss, Yuanwang Technology also mentioned that due to the increased promotion and cleaning of footwear inventory, especially shoes with a long inventory age, the average sales price of footwear products decreased and the gross profit declined, resulting in an operating loss in the footwear business......

In addition, in addition to the impairment of goodwill due to the substandard revenue and net profit level of the fashion new media company controlled by it, the reasons mentioned by Yuanwang Technology for the collection of accounts receivable were less than expected, and the amount of bad debt provision for the whole year increased significantly, which further supported the lack of its internal operation quality.

Because according to the Tianyancha APP, as early as 2022, the credit impairment loss corresponding to the "bad debt loss" project of Yuanwang Technology has reached an astonishing -96.23 million yuan. However, in the first three quarters of 2023, its credit impairment loss has once again climbed to -90.3835 million yuan.

From an investor's point of view, when a listed company has been stumbling in accounts receivable and bad debts for two consecutive years, it is difficult not to worry about its internal operating quality and management level......

When the celebrities began to retreat, are the "Jia Nailiang" who look at technology from afar enough?

Let's look at it from another perspective. After entering 2023, Yuanwang Technology has achieved three consecutive reporting periods of revenue growth without profit increase. However, unlike the "credit impairment loss" in other operating incomes that Yuanwang Technology focuses on now, the reason for the decline in net profit revealed in the income statement is due to the contradiction between the lower revenue growth rate of Yuanwang Technology and the higher operating costs and expense growth.

For example, in the first three quarters of 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of Yuanwang Technology's revenue was 13.42%, but the corresponding total operating cost growth rate reached 39.63%. Among them, the operating cost increased by 41.4% year-on-year to 3.318 billion yuan, which Yuanwang Technology explained that "the scale and revenue of Internet advertising agency business increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the corresponding traffic purchase cost increased".

As for expenses, the total amount of the three expenses (sales, management and R&D) of Yuanwang Technology was 541 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.18% compared with 421 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, the management expenses, which accounted for the largest proportion, increased by 50.41% year-on-year to 358 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in business development efforts of Yuanwang Technology, the corresponding increase in labor costs and travel expenses, and the increase in equity incentive recognition expenses.

So the question is, in the context of such a hot market for live streaming, why has the continuous increase in traffic purchase costs, the growth of expense investment, and equity incentives not been able to exchange for the corresponding revenue and net profit growth for Yuanwang Technology?

At present, the answer is most likely to lie in the internal management efficiency of Yuanwang Technology.

In an internal letter to all employees released by Yuanwang Technology in January, Xie Rudong, chairman and CEO, criticized the anchor efficiency problems such as "the company's short live broadcast duration and low time utilization".

In May, Xie Rudong, chairman of Yuanwang Technology, once again publicly stated that the company had problems in the cooperation and internal operation of the live broadcaster. On the one hand, in terms of cooperation with foreign merchants, there are problems such as cumbersome entry, troublesome product reporting, and uncertain scheduling, and the form of cooperation is too simple.

For Xie Rudong's "complaining", from the perspective of the industry, the most fundamental thing behind it is related to the live broadcast style of Yuanwang Technology and the operation model of "being a person without being a number", which is naturally related to the business limitations of efficiency growth.

Because aside from the backstage supply chain selection and other issues, only from the perspective of the anchor duration and human efficiency at the front desk, although Yuanwang Technology also has stable professional anchors such as Yu Dagongzi to bring goods and output, the most attractive to consumers is the many star anchor echelons represented by Jia Nailiang and Cecilia Cheung established by Yuanwang Technology.

But the problem is that, on the one hand, Yuanwang Technology and most celebrities are in a cooperative relationship, not a relationship between superiors and subordinates.

In other words, although the live broadcast of celebrities has a huge fan flow, it is almost difficult for most celebrities to appear stably in the live broadcast room of Yuanwang Technology due to the strict and tight artist schedule, so in terms of live broadcast efficiency, it is difficult for Yuanwang Technology to compete with Dong Yuhui, Brother Xiao Yang and other professional live broadcast players.

On the other hand, because in terms of live broadcast content, Yuanwang Technology adopts a conventional selling and bargaining routine, which also means that without the traffic of "people", the GMV of the entire live broadcast room may no longer be stable.

Because of this, the lack of efficiency of live broadcast delivery may not be the most troublesome place for Yuanwang Technology now, after all, Yuanwang Technology has also cultivated a few "star anchors" such as Jia Nailiang who have made live broadcast the second spring of their careers. What really makes it a headache at the moment is that in the frequent live broadcast with goods overturning, in recent years, many star artists have chosen to withdraw from the live broadcast room with goods in order to maintain their word-of-mouth image, and the topic of "a large number of artists have stopped broadcasting" once rushed to the hot search.

This is definitely a bad signal for Yuanwang Technology, which takes star anchors as an important basic disk.

After all, even if Yuanwang Technology may be able to leave a group of star artists like Jia Nailiang who are interested in taking live streaming as their main business, but it is obviously unknown how much they can leave in the end.

For most investors who have already lost money, the last thing they want to see in the future may be unknowns and uncertainties......

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