Guide
In recent years, the U.S. government has adjusted its strategic goal toward China to "win over China in the long run," and the U.S. global hegemony is highly dependent on its ability to innovate in science and technology. In the U.S.-China relationship over the next decade, technology competition is likely to be a key factor. The United States' technological innovation capability is still very strong, but in terms of technology application, it is greatly constrained by the impact of "deindustrialization". In this regard, China should comprehensively improve its scientific and technological innovation capabilities, effectively balance the relationship between government-led innovation and market-led innovation, encourage disruptive technological innovation, and enhance self-sufficiency in core technologies.
Li Wei is a professor and associate dean of the School of International Relations at Renmin University of Chinese, and director of the Center for American Studies
Since the Biden administration took office, the United States has abandoned the Trump administration's outrageous and brutal approach, and adopted a "Smart Competition" policy, that is, it has vigorously woven a network of economic alliances led by it internationally, by strengthening the G7, building a new "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework", the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC), the Partnership for Mineral Security (MSP) and other regional economic cooperation mechanisms, and building the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India and other countries that are strategic fulcrums for industrial and scientific and technological cooperation are trying to form a "coordinated operation" posture of economic competition with China in the world. At the domestic level, the Biden administration has gone against the norm and has successively passed legislation with the nature of industrial policies in infrastructure, chips and new energy, which has comprehensively boosted the revival of American industry.
However, China's political, economic, and social systems have shown great resilience under extreme pressure from the United States. On the contrary, the United States has borne a high price as a result. Especially after the two geopolitical crises of the Ukraine crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States' global hegemony and control appear to be stretched. Against this background, the United States has adjusted its strategic objective from "defeating China in the short term" to "winning China in the long run," that is, it will strive to repeat the story of "winning without a fight" against the Soviet Union in 10 years.
In the "decisive game" of strategic competition between China and the United States in the next decade, technology competition is a key factor. The global hegemony of the United States is highly dependent on its leading capabilities in science and technology. Strong military hegemony and financial hegemony are the two key foundations of US hegemony, but they both rely on the support of US scientific and technological innovation capabilities, otherwise both hegemony will be unsustainable.
Image source: Oriental IC
The competition between China and the United States in the field of technology is divided into two dimensions: one is the competition of technological innovation, and the other is the competition of technology application.
At present, the domestic technological innovation ecology of the United States has not been greatly affected, the American innovation system represented by Silicon Valley is still relatively active, and the United States' ability to lead technological innovation in the international economic system is still very strong. This is very obvious in the field of artificial intelligence, and the "super enterprises" represented by Apple, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceX have demonstrated the strong technological innovation capabilities of the US private sector.
The application of technology is highly dependent on a relatively complete industrial ecosystem. Due to the transfer of a large number of industries and the decline of domestic industries, the United States has been greatly constrained in the application and industrialization of technology. For example, despite the fact that the United States has leading technology in the electric vehicle industry, Tesla can only win the global competition if it invests in a factory in China.
In the context of globalization, the United States has emerged in a state of "deindustrialization", and its technological innovation lacks sufficient support for industrial transformation and application scenarios. Therefore, technological innovation in the United States is "innovation without industrial support". This is also the main reason why the Biden administration wants to implement a modern industrial strategy with "friendly shore outsourcing" and "local reshoring" as the core.
Image source: Visual China
At the same time, in order to make up for the shortcomings of local application scenarios, the Biden administration has vigorously carried out science and technology diplomacy in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, aerospace and other fields, built a transnational science and technology cooperation network, and improved the innovation environment of the United States through international technical cooperation, so as to enhance its leading ability and innovation momentum in the field of science and technology. Among them, the most eye-catching is the "chip alliance" established by the United States, and the "Artemis Accord" to promote a new round of lunar exploration projects and the development and utilization of space resources. The former aims to prevent China from achieving technological breakthroughs in the semiconductor industry through the establishment of multinational coordinated technology export controls, while the latter aims to win the first opportunity in the race to the moon with China through multinational cooperation and resource sharing.
In contrast, China has a strong industrial foundation and a sound industrial ecology, and China's "super enterprises" represented by Huawei, DJI, BYD, CATL, COMAC, etc., have continuously sought progressive technological innovation in promoting industrial development and have made significant technological achievements. China's active industrial clusters provide a strong industrial support for the technological innovation of Chinese enterprises, and China's huge consumer market provides rich application scenarios for the technological innovation of Chinese enterprises.
However, there are still deficiencies in China's basic science and talent introduction. Moreover, once the United States and other Western countries form a Sino-exclusive science and technology alliance to cut off the overseas sources of Chinese technology, China will face extremely high costs in relying on the strength of one country to carry out systematic scientific and technological innovation. Therefore, how to continue to maintain China's innovation ability and innovation momentum under the pressure of US strategic competition is a test of China's rise as a great power.
Image source: Xinhua News Agency
In the next decade, in order to comprehensively improve its scientific and technological innovation capabilities, China needs to deal with the following aspects, which involve systematic institutional design and institutional reform.
First, it is necessary to properly handle the relationship between innovation led by state-owned enterprises and innovation led by private enterprises. State-owned enterprises and private enterprises have different characteristics and have different advantages in technological innovation. State-owned enterprises have strong financial strength, more technical reserves, and pay attention to long-term planning, and are the main force of technological innovation. However, private enterprises are more flexible in their institutional mechanisms, more market-conscious, and more sensitive to new technologies. The two need to cooperate in the division of labor and complement each other's advantages. For example, in the face of the competitive pressure exerted by the United States on China in the field of space, China should not rely solely on state-led resource investment to respond, but should vigorously encourage private enterprises to join the ranks of space technology exploration.
Second, it is necessary to properly handle the relationship between incremental innovation and disruptive innovation. The United States is an innovative country, and as such, has been able to lead technological and industrial revolutions many times. In contrast, Japan is better at incremental innovation, and the country has strong technological strength, but lacks technological leadership. China needs to strike a balance between the two innovation models, not only to make steady progress in technological progress and encourage technology accumulation, but also to encourage disruptive technological innovation to achieve "corner overtaking" in the field of technology.
Third, it is necessary to properly handle the relationship between independent innovation and open innovation. China must strive to make up for the many technological "shortcomings" in the economic system in order to enhance its self-sufficiency in core technology areas. However, scientific and technological innovation has its own laws, and any major scientific and technological innovation is inseparable from the division of labor, cooperation and joint efforts of all mankind. The more fierce the competition between China and the United States, the more China should strengthen its sense of openness to scientific and technological innovation, vigorously carry out scientific and technological diplomacy, actively carry out scientific and technological cooperation with other countries in the world, and attract innovative talents from all over the world.
Image source: China Daily
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