Weekly forecast: the red envelope market is focused, and the market is under pressure and support

     As soon as the market rebounded, there were more people who sang more. And on the morning of January 23, the market fell to 2724 points, and the market was in a panic, and dared to shout in the live broadcast that it is the bottom now, only us, you can go back to watch the replays of all the live broadcast rooms at that time!

     In short, the market adjustment is basically in place, and the ideal trend next week is to continue to rebound and regain 3,000 points in one fell swoop.

     In terms of technical indicators, the Shanghai Composite Index has support at 2850 points, and the rebound resistance is roughly around 2960 points. Mainly in the second half of last year, the Shanghai Composite Index basically fell along the 60-day line, if the market from a rebound to a reversal, my understanding is at least to stand on the 60-day moving average, that is, 2960 points. If it can break through 2960 points, then it is theoretically possible to challenge the 3017 point decline gap. Therefore, as long as the Shanghai Composite Index does not break 2,850 points next week, it can reach around 3,000 points. The 1,000-point mark is never a support in a decline, but in a rebound, the integer level is always a resistance. So 3000 points may have a repetition. In particular, technical indicators have always been carved for the sword, so the above analysis is for reference only.

    This round of rebound can be defined as an over-falling rebound, and the main line is high-dividend state-owned enterprises, so buy value below 3,000 points (low valuation and high dividends), and do growth (medical consumer technology) at 3,000 points, and state-owned enterprises are expected to still be the main line of rebound next week.    

  Healthcare: In 2024, we will focus on companies with marginal improvement in the industry and high-growth corporate profits, such as traditional Chinese medicine (medical insurance + injections), innovative drugs (overseas licensing logic + CXO), and medical devices (in-hospital recovery).

   Consumption: Consumption will recover in 2024, and there will be marginal improvement in food and beverages and there may be excess returns in medical aesthetics.

   Technology: smart cars, AI chips, etc   

Forecast effective dates

January 29 - February 2

Roulette nature

midline

pressure

prop up

forecast

Shanghai

finger

Bottom

2800

Box top

3050

Strong support

2850

First support

2900

First resistance

2970

Precise trading system

Current direction

Bottoming

Precise targeting

not

Morphological analysis system

Current form

Bottoming

Medium-term direction

Bottom frame

Time period

What is more important than the rise and fall of the index is whether the actual investment strategy is complete;

What is more important than the length of the stock age is whether the research framework is mature and complete;

More important than selecting bull stocks is to do a good job in asset allocation and the best combination.   

Plate rotation

  Key industries with high dividend yields: big finance (banking, insurance, brokerage), coal, utilities (power transportation, etc.), traditional Chinese medicine and pharmaceutical business

70% of the position

Position changes

Whether it's technical analysis or value investing, you make money by holding stocks. I've never seen a shareholder who is afraid to hold stocks and can still make a lot of money. We believe that the bottom of A-shares has passed, investors should learn from Buffett, the bottom should be heavy, the current valuation is not expensive, and it is okay to hold about 70% of the position.

Operational Strategy

  The over-falling rebound before the Spring Festival has arrived, and the holdings are dominant.

Policy analysis

    We believe that in the next 3-5 years, a number of big bull stocks will emerge that have risen more than 10 times, and the medical sector will keep pace with the new energy vehicle track, because every rebound that starts at the bottom of history will appear a batch of three-year 10-bagger opportunities. In a similar situation, at the end of 2018, the vast majority of institutional investors had very low positions, and as a result, a batch of 10 baggers was born in the medical industry.

operation

tactics

70% of the position

Leave three points of network technology in case it is incompatible with the future.

The remaining seven points of medical consumption are in an attempt to make a living in order to make a stable profit.

Lv Changshun Certificate No.: A0150619070003. [The above content only represents personal views, does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious] I do not guide the operation, do not manage money on behalf of customers, do not recommend stocks, all content is for reference only!

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