周預測：紅包行情劃重點，大盤壓力和支撐

     大盤一反彈，唱多的就多了起來。而在1月23日上午大盤下跌到2724點，市場一片恐慌中，還敢在直播中高喊現在就是底部的，隻有我們，你可以去回看當時所有直播間的回放！

     我的了解，你是看大盤超跌反彈也好，紅包行情也罷，總之，大盤調整基本到位，下周最理想的走勢是繼續反彈，一舉收複3000點。

     從技術名額而言，滬指支撐在2850點，至于反彈阻力大緻在2960點附近。主要是去年下半年，滬指基本上是沿着60日線下跌，如果說大盤由反彈變成反轉，我的了解起碼要站上60日均線，也就是2960點。如果能突破2960點，那麼理論上可能去挑戰3017點的下跌缺口。是以，隻要下周滬指調整不破2850點，就可以到3000點附近。在下跌中千點大關從來都不是支撐，但反彈中，整數關從來都是阻力。是以3000點可能會有反複。特别強調，技術名額從來都是刻舟求劍，是以以上分析僅供參考。

    本輪反彈可以定義為超跌反彈，主線就是高股息的國企，是以，3000點以下買價值（低估值高股息），3000點上做成長（醫療消費科技），下周預計國企仍然可能是反彈主線。    

  醫療：2024年重點關注行業邊際改善，企業盈利恢複高成長的公司，比如中藥（醫保+注射劑），比如創新藥（海外授權出海邏輯+CXO），比如醫療器械(院内恢複）。

   消費：2024年消費複蘇,食品飲料會有邊際改善和醫美可能會有超額收益。

   科技：智能汽車，AI晶片等   

預測有效日期

1月29日-2月2日

輪盤性質

中線

壓力

支撐

預測

滬

指

箱底

2800

箱頂

3050

強支撐

2850

第一支撐

2900

第一阻力

2970

精确操盤體系

目前方向

築底

精确目标

無

形态分析系統

目前形态

築底

中期方向

底部構築

時間周期

比指數漲跌重要的是，實戰投資政策是否完整；

比股齡長短重要的是，研究架構是否成熟完善；

比選出牛股重要的是，做好資産配置最佳組合。   

闆塊輪動

  高股息率重點行業：大金融（銀行，保險，券商），煤炭，公用事業（電力交通等），中藥和醫藥商業

70%倉位

倉位變化

無論是技術分析還是價值投資，都是依靠持有股票賺錢的。我從沒有看見過，不敢持有股票，還能賺到大錢的股民。我們認為A股底部已經過去，投資人應當學習巴菲特，底部應當重倉，目前估值不貴，持有70%左右倉位是可以的。

操作政策

  春節前的超跌反彈已經到來，持股為主。

政策分析

    我們認為，在未來3-5年裡湧現出一批漲幅超過10倍的大牛股，醫療闆塊将和新能源車賽道并駕齊驅，因為每一次曆史底部開啟的反彈都會出現一批三年十倍股的機會。類似的情況有2018年底，絕大多數機構投資人都是非常低倉位，結果醫療行業誕生了一批十倍股。

操作

政策

70%倉位

留三分網絡科技，以防與未來格格不入。

剩七分醫療消費，以圖穩定盈利謀此生。

呂長順 證書編号：A0150619070003。【以上内容僅代表個人觀點，不構成買賣依據，股市有風險，投資需謹慎】 本人不指導操作，不代客戶理财，不推薦股票，所有内容僅供參考！

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