Premier League title race analysis: Manchester City have the initiative, Arsenal need the help of their rivals if they want to win the title

Brother Bao loves football

2024-05-13 11:42Published in Zhejiang

The battle for the Premier League title has entered the white-hot stage, and in the two key games in the 37th round, Manchester City, which played a day earlier, defeated Fulham 4-0, surpassing Arsenal to the top of the Premier League; However, Arsenal stubbornly beat Manchester United 1-0 away the next day, overtaking Manchester City by two points and regaining the top spot. At present, although Manchester City is ranked second with 85 points, there are still two games left, but they have the initiative to win the championship; Arsenal are top of the table with 86 points, but have only one game left and will have to count on arch-rivals Tottenham to hold off Manchester City if they want to win the title. In any case, this season's Premier League winner will not be decided until after the 38th round of fixtures.

The current situation in the standings is that Arsenal is at the top of the table with 86 points from 37 games, scoring 89 goals and conceding 28 goals, with 61 goal difference in hand; Manchester City are second with 85 points from 36 games, scoring 91 goals, conceding 33 goals and a goal difference of 58, with little difference between the two in terms of points and goal difference. Arsenal's last game is at home to Everton, who have already been relegated from relegation, on 19 May, while City have two more games away at Tottenham on 15 May and West Ham United on 19 May, with all 10 games in the final round of the Premier League set to kick off at the same time.

Arsenal and Everton are not in suspense about the outcome of this game, the last 6 meetings between the two teams, Arsenal 4-2 have the upper hand, Arsenal won 1-0 away this season, 4-0 at home last season, and in the last 6 Premier League home games, Arsenal has won 5 times. In terms of recent form, Arsenal's last 10 Premier League games 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss are very good, and Everton's 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses are not far behind, but Everton has been relegated ahead of schedule, and I am afraid that it will not be desperate with Arsenal at this moment, offending people in vain.

Manchester City will not have a hard time taking all three points from West Ham in the final round, and the last six meetings between the two teams in the Premier League have seen Manchester City hold an overwhelming advantage with five wins and one draw, and Manchester City have maintained a seven-game winning streak at home. Looking at the recent form of the two teams, Manchester City has won 7 consecutive Premier League games, and the last 10 Premier League games are 8 wins and 2 draws to remain unbeaten; West Ham United has been in poor form recently, manager David Moyes has confirmed his departure at the end of the season, currently ranked 9th in the Premier League, and there is no hope of next season's European competition, the last 10 Premier League games have only achieved 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, neither the motivation nor the ability to cause problems for Manchester City in the final round.

So the key game to decide the Premier League title will be a make-up match in the 34th round of the Premier League on 15 May, when Manchester City travel to Tottenham Hotspur. At present, Tottenham is ranked 5th in the Premier League with 63 points from 36 games, and Villa is ranked 4th in the Premier League with 67 points from 36 games. Tottenham's last two games are a make-up match at home to Manchester City and a final round away against Sheffield United, who have been relegated early; Villa's final two games were a replay at home to Liverpool and a last-round away game away to Crystal Palace. However, the make-up match between Villa and Liverpool will be held a day earlier than the match between Tottenham and Manchester City, and if Villa wins against Liverpool, then it will ensure the top four in the Premier League one round in advance, and Tottenham will have no motivation to fight to the death with Manchester City; If Villa can't win against Liverpool, then Tottenham will have the motivation to fight Manchester City to the end.

Let's see if Tottenham have the strength to stop Manchester City. Tottenham and Manchester City have met in the last 6 times, Tottenham has the upper hand with 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, and at home in the Premier League, Tottenham has maintained a 4-game winning streak against Manchester City. However, Tottenham's performance in the Premier League this season can be called a tiger's tail, winning the best manager and the best player in a row at the beginning of the season, once occupying the top of the Premier League, and has a great chance of competing for the title, but the poor record of 1 draw and 4 losses during the 11th to 15th rounds has completely ruined Tottenham's possibility of winning the championship, and now they can only struggle for a Champions League place. Tottenham's last 10 rounds of the Premier League with 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats, the performance is also unsatisfactory, if it is not for Villa also slowing down, Tottenham has already missed the Champions League qualification. The only good news is that Tottenham still have an excellent home record, with 8 wins and 2 defeats in the last 10 Premier League home games, which is why Tottenham want to beat Manchester City.

If Tottenham can beat Manchester City in the replay, then before the start of the 38th round, Arsenal will continue to maintain a one-point lead over Manchester City and occupy the initiative to win the title; If Tottenham and Manchester City draw, then before the start of the 38th round, Arsenal and Manchester City have 86 points, Arsenal is at the top of the table by virtue of goal difference, and finally in the 38th round of the game, Arsenal and Manchester City must not only win, but also get as many goal difference as possible; If Tottenham lose to Manchester City in the replays, City will be two points above Arsenal at the top of the table before the start of the 38th round, and a win over West Ham United in the final round will be assured of the title.

Overall, Manchester City have the initiative in the race for the Premier League title, and as long as they win their last two games, they will definitely win the Premier League this season; Unable to beat Tottenham in the replays, Arsenal could break Manchester City's dream of a fourth consecutive Premier League title and regain the Premier League title after 20 years in the 2003-2004 season.

So, the question is, if you're a die-hard Tottenham fan and Villa lose to Liverpool in the replay, then do you want Tottenham to beat Manchester City and keep their hopes of playing in the Champions League next season; Or would you rather not participate in the Champions League than fight Manchester City on your own, but achieve the Premier League title of the city's rival Arsenal?

Note: The picture comes from the Internet.

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