【Military Subplane】Author: Big Ivan
According to a report on the website of Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao" on January 22, on the same day, the US White House adviser declared that the attack on the Houthis "will take some time" to take effect.
The day before, Jonathan, deputy assistant to the president for national security affairs, in an interview with ABC, hinted that the Biden administration would soon take more "extra measures" against the Houthis to stop the Houthis' ship attacks on the Red Sea. As for what these so-called "extra measures" in Jonathan's mouth are, there are different opinions from the outside world, some say that the US Navy is preparing to block Yemeni ports, and some say that the US Marine Corps is preparing to land in Yemen.
Will the United States really end?
The chaos on the Red Sea is about to further expand? Big Ivan thinks that the possibility is very high, and it can be divided into two factors:
The first is that the U.S. strikes against the Houthis seem to have been ineffective, and as we all know, the U.S. has been firing precision-guided munitions against the Houthis since January 12, using aircraft carriers, carrier-based aircraft, and cruise missile submarines. By January 18, three rounds of air strikes had been carried out, and as a result, the Houthis had not stopped attacking ships, but had intensified their operations......
First, on January 17, the Houthis attacked the USS Kinko Piccardy, operated by a US-owned ship, and on 18 January, they attacked the US-owned USS Kem Langer. Not to mention the intensification of the ship raids, the Houthis also announced that they would include US and British ship-owned freighters in the scope of the raids. The Anglo-American coalition originally wanted to use air strikes against the Houthis to relieve Israel, but the mutton did not eat and ended up with a sheep stink.
The second is that the Palestinian-Israeli situation still cannot be ended, and to be precise, Israel is in its death throes. Throughout this period of time, Netanyahu's statements are about to be messy, one moment announcing that the Palestinians can establish a state, and the other time announcing that the Israeli army must fully control the Gaza Strip, and also bringing out Gallant and Netanyahu's scolding and anger, saying that he will bring the Golani Brigade to ask for explanations (Prigozhin: Brother, I advise you to calm down). In the final analysis, it is the Israeli army that has made a mess in the Gaza Strip, and the internal contradictions within the wartime cabinet that were once covered up have now erupted.
For this reason, Netanyahu came up with a new idea -- the Northern Expedition, the Northern Expedition Allah the Party! If it is said that the southern attack on the Gaza Strip is still in order to deal with the "Al-Aqsa floods", then the Northern Expedition Allah Party is purely in front of the Bint Jubail Jewel, and the heavenly soldiers are a little impatient...... The only explanation is that Netanyahu is no longer in control of himself and must rely on the ongoing conflict to save his shaky political and even physical lives. But this also means that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may further expand, and it is possible that the conflict between Palestine and Israel will become a large-scale war that will spread to Israel's surrounding areas.
The combination of these two factors shows that the United States originally wanted to frighten the Houthis through limited air strikes, but as a result, the Houthis are just a flat-headed brother, and they cannot be frightened at all, and they have even drawn the United States into it; Israel is not worried about it and wants to further expand the war, and Israel continues to run amok, and the United States has to give it a back. Combining the two, the United States must find a way to prevent the Houthis from attacking merchant ships passing through the Red Sea, and by the way, to lift the siege and continue to give Israel the bottom of that hateful dog. Therefore, for the time being, the options available to the United States are very limited, and it is expected that the intensity of the attack on the Houthis will be expanded.
What means will the United States use
So, what are the possible means by which the US military may expand the scale of the Houthi so-called expansion of its operations? Big Ivan believes that there are three levels:
The first level is to do nothing, strengthen the sorties of aircraft carrier-based aircraft on the existing basis, or transfer another aircraft carrier. At present, in addition to the USS Eisenhower, the US aircraft carriers in the state of deployment include the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Carl Vinson in the western Pacific, the USS Roosevelt in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and the USS Washington in the western Atlantic.
Compared with the average in-flight rate of aircraft carriers of the US Navy, it is already quite a high level, so it is barely possible to squeeze out an aircraft carrier from other theaters. But the problem is that at present, the Houthis do not seem to be birds at all in the sorties of a CSG (Carrier Strike Group), so how useful it is to add a CSG, I am afraid that no one knows the bottom of their hearts. In other words, the current US air strikes against the Houthis seem to have a marginal effect, and in this case, even if the US military really brings in two aircraft carrier strike groups with full firepower, it is estimated that it will still not be able to achieve the expected goal.
The second level is to no longer intensify air strikes against the Houthis, or to say that air strikes are combined with a coastal blockade, in an attempt to trap the Houthis by attacking their sea transport routes. As early as 2014, when Saudi Arabia led the GCC coalition to kill Yemen, the United States tried to block Iran's military support for the Houthis, and even achieved relatively good results for a time, but then, Iran adjusted the mode of transportation to the Houthis, and the United States could not blockade it.
Not only could they not be blocked, but the Houthis also relied on external support and self-reliance, tactical missiles, anti-ship missiles, and drone motorcycles...... To put it bluntly, relying on a small number of US destroyers to blockade the entire Yemeni coast will inevitably be impenetrable, and there will inevitably be a large number of loopholes to be drilled. Moreover, is the question of the past: Does the United States want to abandon its main strategic direction in Europe and Asia, and then transfer a large number of surface warships to blockade Yemen, and at the same time ensure a long-term blockade? Then the main strategic opponent of the United States in the East Asian and European directions will laugh off.
Third, since air strikes don't work, and coastal blockades don't necessarily work, the U.S. Marine Corps invasion of Yemen that is being discussed now may be the last option. Of course, this is not necessarily reliable, first of all, the US Marine Corps can still mobilize how many troops can be mobilized at all, and the Marine Corps amphibious assault force currently deployed in the Middle East is only the "Bataan" amphibious assault ship active in the Eastern Mediterranean, with the 26th Marine Corps Expeditionary Squadron on it.
As a specialized overseas intervention unit of the US military, the backbone of the expeditionary force is a reinforced battalion of marines, which is composed of a large number of aviation units, intelligence and signal units, and support and support units. Big Ivan believes that the seizure of the port of Hodeidah in Yemen is not a big problem, but the question is what will happen next? Will the problem be ended after the seizure of the port of Hodeidah? Obviously, it will not be over.
After all, the base of the Houthis, as we said before, is the Shiite Zay's sect, which accounts for about 40% of Yemen's territory. Its base was in the mountainous region of Saada province in northern Yemen, which was so easy to defend that even after the establishment of the Zay'd clerical regime, the Umayyads of the Arab empire failed to capture it in several attacks. Even if the U.S. military were able to take Hodeidah, the Houthis would be able to rely on the mountainous terrain of Yemen's interior to wage guerrilla warfare against the U.S. military...... Isn't this a replica of what the United States faced in Afghanistan?
It can only control a few large cities on the main transportation routes, and a large number of mountains cannot be controlled at all, once the United States retreats from Hodeidah, the Houthis will come back in minutes, so what is the purpose of the United States attacking Hodeidah?
How to view the chaos in the Red Sea
Therefore, in the final analysis, Big Ivan's point of view, the United States is now in Yemen, and the best way is to stop the loss in time, that is, to do nothing, and honestly admit that it failed to scare the Houthis and withdraw the fleet. Otherwise, whether it is to dispatch another aircraft carrier strike group or more destroyers to carry out a coastal blockade, there is a high probability that the goal will not be achieved in the end; if the US Navy cannot think of it and sends a Marine expedition to seize Hodeidah, it will most likely bring humiliation on itself in the end, and there will be even more terrible consequences.
After all, as we all saw the other day, Iraqi Shiite militias have begun a major attack on the U.S. al-Assad airbase in Anbar province in western Iraq. It is said that the intensity of this offensive is extremely high, and even ballistic missiles have been used as weapons of mass destruction, and you have no idea where the Iraqi Shiite militia got the ballistic missiles from. The Patriot-3 deployed by the US military in the base carried out the interception, but a considerable number of ballistic missiles did not stop it......
The wreckage of a Patriot-3 missile that fell to the ground
This basically means that Iran is going to end, and it is obvious that Iran still has a backhand, and if the United States really mobilizes troops to attack Yemen, it is not afraid that the Shiite militias in Iraq will attack your military bases with a larger wave of ballistic missiles? It can be said that there is basically no difference between the current US military bases in Iraq and Syria and the devil's artillery towers on the North China Plain in the later stage of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, and they are all under siege. It's really going to be bigger, don't get stuck in Yemen and can't get out, and the military bases in Iraq and Syria will be pulled out one by one by someone, and this will be really a lot of fun.
As a matter of fact, the current solution to the problem in Yemen is very simple -- the Houthis have made it clear that the Red Sea ship attack is closely related to Israel's attack on the Gaza Strip, and as long as the United States persuades Israel, then there is no need to make such a big deal to fight, and the Houthis themselves will give up the ship attack operation, so why should they have aircraft carriers and marines? But the question is, can the United States still persuade Israel to stop the war? Does the United States still dare to let Israel cease fighting?