After South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol took office, he did not seek a balance between China and the United States, but greatly leaned towards the United States and followed up with the United States' policy of containing China, which directly led to a sharp contraction in trade between China and South Korea. In just two years, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has been unable to bear the burden and sent a new foreign minister, Cho Dui-yeol, to China to seek to improve relations between China and South Korea, which are under tension. According to the Observer, Cho said before his visit to China that China-South Korea relations are no less important than the US-South Korea alliance, and this visit to China will take the first step in promoting the development of South Korea-China relations, and meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to discuss areas with great potential for cooperation and further consolidate the foundation for the development of relations between the two countries.
It has been observed that Cho Tei-yeol's visit to China this time is six and a half years after the last visit of the ROK foreign minister to Beijing, which also intuitively reflects how the relations between the two countries are now. What should we think of South Korea's expectation of improving China-South Korea relations? Let's talk about three points.
First of all, China is not to blame for the tension in Sino-South Korean relations. After Yoon Seok-yue became president of South Korea, there were at least three things that made Chinese very unhappy.
First, at the end of the new crown epidemic, after China relaxed the entry and exit standards, South Korea introduced a discriminatory policy, specifically targeting Chinese inbound tourists, requiring "signs", led by the police to go through "special channels", and must do high-priced nucleic acid at their own expense, to "small black houses" and other results, and for Chinese inbound flights, they must also land at designated seven airports. Objectively speaking, neither the United States nor Europe has gone so far, and South Korea, as a neighboring country that is very dependent on Chinese tourists, is digging a hole for itself in doing so. Finally, South Korea's tourism industry is at its lowest point because many Chinese no longer choose to go to South Korea.
Second, Yoon Suk-yeol made inappropriate remarks on Taiwan-related issues, saying that "the Taiwan issue, like the Korean Peninsula issue, is not simply a matter between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, but should be regarded as a global issue." As the leader of a neighboring country, he should know best that China regards the Taiwan issue as "the core of its core interests", and even the United States will not back down, let alone South Korea. Yoon Suk-yeol's blatant interference in China's internal affairs is very inappropriate.
Third, South Korea knew that the THAAD deployment had caused a decline in China-South Korea relations, and that relations between the two countries were improved only after President Moon Jae-in made a promise, but after Yoon Suk-yeol took office, in order to show goodwill to the United States, he still insisted on promoting the THAAD deployment, and was also preparing to increase the deployment. According to the data, the detection radar of the "THAAD" system, with a working distance of up to 2,500 kilometers, has included the mainland's Yangtze River Delta, Jiaodong Peninsula, Bohai Bay, and parts of the northeast into the scope of surveillance, which has seriously affected the mainland's national security.
Second, since South Korea knows that "security depends on the United States and its economy depends on China," it should really attach importance to it.
After Yoon Suk-yeol took office, he immediately listed North Korea as the "main enemy", which directly increased the tension on the peninsula, and the United States also used the excuse of "dealing with North Korea" to deploy aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and strategic bombers to the peninsula from time to time, that is, "China's periphery". In this way, his own safety is guaranteed, but Yoon Suk-yeol also knows very well that the United States is doing this completely "drunkard's intention not to drink", just to secretly target China, but it has been "cooperating" with the United States' deployment, completely ignoring where China-South Korea relations will go.
In addition, in response to the U.S. CHIPS Act, South Korea has significantly reduced exports to China in the semiconductor field. In this context, China began to make a reciprocal response, and the trade between the two countries shrank sharply, and last year, South Korean statistics showed that there was a trade deficit with China for the first time in 31 years, which also directly affected South Korea's GDP, because China has always been South Korea's largest trading partner and an indispensable market.
For many years, South Korea has always regarded "security depends on the United States, and the economy depends on China" as the truth, one is a matter of whether you can survive, and the other is a matter of whether you can live better.
Finally, is it possible for the new South Korean foreign minister's visit to China to improve relations between the two countries?
Objectively speaking, this is possible because China's foreign policy has always advocated "being good to its neighbors and being its partner," and as long as South Korea truly recognizes its mistakes and takes sincere actions, China will not hold on to its braids. Australia has done the same thing before, but after the new Australian and New Zealand governments showed sincerity, China-Australia trade is now recovering. It's just that after Yoon Suk-yeol obviously leaned towards the United States, and now wants to seek a balance between China and the United States, the United States may not easily agree. Why, then, is South Korea in a hurry to improve its relations with China? There may be two reasons.
First, it is really unbearable economically, because China is the world's largest market, and European powers dare not do this, and where does South Korea have the confidence, and in the end it will hurt itself; Another, this year is the U.S. election year, former President Trump is likely to make a comeback, before Trump "heavy Japan and light South Korea" is very obvious, South Korea or worried that after he comes to power, between China and the United States will not be able to "rely on", in this way, security is a problem, the economy is also a problem, which administration can still do it?
However, China-ROK relations are not something that South Korea can hurt if it wants to hurt or improve if it wants to, and if there is no full sincerity, I am afraid it will be difficult to reach a consensus. However, judging from Cho Duyeol's statement that he wants to consolidate "areas with great potential for cooperation", it is clear that South Korea already has a feasible plan, and we might as well wait and see.