When it comes to the INF crisis, many people's first reaction may be the Cuban Missile Crisis, which almost sent the world into the fire pit of nuclear war during the Cold War.
【Cuban Missile Crisis】
The deployment of medium-range missiles often implies strategic impulsion and extreme provocation.
At present, the United States has begun to use pressure on China to try to muddy the situation in the region, and in mid-April 2024, the United States has deployed the Typhon medium-range missile system on Luzon Island in the Philippines to deter China.
South China Sea INF crisis
The Typhon missile system may be a little unfamiliar to many people, but in fact Typhon is not a new missile, but a land-based version of the MK-41 vertical launch system that integrates the Standard 6 and Tomahawk launch, which is nothing new.
【Typhon Missile System】
Typhon's name is derived from Greek mythology, it is a very fierce and brutal monster, and although the name is very imposing, it is generally a product of American emergency.
At present, the Typhon launch vehicle unit uses 4 vertical launch units, and different strike objectives can be achieved by replacing different missiles, and Typhon has used some brains in choosing missile models, such as the standard 6, although it is used as an air defense interceptor missile in the US Navy, but the missile actually has multi-purpose capabilities.
Standard 6 combines some of the technologies of the AIM-2 active radar medium-range projectile on the basis of the Standard 120, giving it the ability to strike both ground and sea targets.
[Standard 6 missile]
However, the effective range of the standard 6 is only more than 300 kilometers, which is not a medium-range missile, and the real medium-range missile attack capability actually relies on the Tomahawk, which is very well-known, and the US Navy has used it to paralyze the enemy's combat nodes in many wars in the past, creating quite fruitful results.
It is not difficult to find that whether it is the Standard 6, the Tomahawk, or the Typhon vertical hair unit itself, they have basically moved the ready-made system of the Navy to land, which is a helpless move by the United States in the current form of international confrontation.
The United States has been restricted by the INF Treaty for many years, and it has not been able to get its hands on a new type of missile, so it can only make do with the Navy's ready-made weapons.
【Typhon Missile System】
But then again, Tomahawks have a range of more than 1,800 kilometers, and the Typhon deployed on Luzon Island can already cover the cities on the southeast coast of the mainland, and its threat is indeed objective, which is why the mainland will take a tough attitude to fight back against the United States.
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made it clear that the United States is creating trouble in the South China Sea, undermining regional peace and stability, and drawing the entire South China Sea region into an arms race.
Some people may wonder why, based on the experience of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Americans' placement of Typhon on China's doorstep is a rather serious situation, and may even directly trigger a military conflict between the two countries.
【Typhon Missile System】
In fact, this is because Typhon's own threat to China's national security is very limited, and the Soviet Union deployed medium-range ballistic missiles in Cuba that can carry nuclear warheads, which are completely different from Typhon.
In the final analysis, the Tomahawk is only a missile with medium-range strike capability, not an intermediate-range missile in the true sense, and the mainland is very mature in technology and experience in defending against this kind of high-subsonic cruise missile, and it is very difficult to strike at China's local targets with the Tomahawk's penetration capability.
【Tomahawk Cruise Missile】
Typhon is a temporary deployment of rapid combat power in the equipment system of the US military, and its advantages are strong mobility and unrestricted deployment environment, and it can even be arranged on civilian ships, which is very suitable for countries like the Philippines.
But if you really want to participate in the confrontation of major powers, the actual combat value of such low-end equipment is very low.
To put it mildly, if China and the United States really start fighting, even if Typhon on Luzon launches missiles first, the PLA's hypersonic missiles can achieve the last-strike, first-to-destroy target.
【Typhon Missile System】
Forcing ASEAN to take sides
In fact, the political significance of the deployment of Tiphon in the South China Sea by the United States is far greater than the military significance, and now the United States is passive and unable to solve the problem in the struggle in other parts of the world, and the South China Sea is an outlet for the United States to exert its strength abroad.
The South China Sea issue is actually a geopolitical issue between China and ASEAN, but the U.S. involvement has made the South China Sea issue part of the international game, which has significantly made it more difficult for China to properly resolve the South China Sea issue.
For ASEAN, the new power will inevitably give them the idea of picking up the gap in the game between the two great powers.
This is the survival of small countries, and the countries of the South China Sea believe that through the pressure of the United States on China, it is indeed possible for China to compromise and make concessions on the South China Sea issue in exchange for ASEAN cooperation.
However, this view is actually a miscalculation of the current Sino-US confrontation situation and China's national strength.
In fact, the United States has lost its military advantage over China since 2016, and the improvement of China's military strength has brought China's strategic initiative in the Asia-Pacific region.
【Chinese Navy】
ASEAN countries need to understand that the United States cannot be their backer in the South China Sea.
China has put the ugly words in front of the curve, and now it is time for ASEAN to make the right choice, otherwise once a conflict breaks out, ASEAN countries will most likely become cannon fodder in the confrontation between China and the United States.
However, some ASEAN countries have now come to understand that cooperation with China is in the long-term interests of ASEAN countries.
Therefore, these ASEAN countries are very concerned about the US missile deployment and call on the US to exercise restraint. In addition, with the deepening of China's cooperation with ASEAN in recent years, major ASEAN member states, including Vietnam and Thailand, have taken the initiative to cooperate with China on the South China Sea issue.
【China-ASEAN Military Cooperation】
The United States' vain attempt to muddy the waters of the South China Sea is likely to come to naught.
The hegemony of the United States is military hegemony, and when its military power cannot form an overwhelming superiority, its overseas influence will decline rapidly, and it will not be able to win the support of regional countries.
Sources:
[1] The Philippines and the United States launched the 2024 "Shoulder to Shoulder" United Army. Global Times [Citation date: 2024-04-22]
[2] "Even if you sign an agreement, you won't help us!" "Philippine Secretary of Defense: There is a need for a comprehensive review of the US-Philippine alliance. Huanqiu.com [Citation date: 2021-09-09]