The country has really moved, and the changes in the property market have begun? Insiders: From next year, two types of people should pay attention

▼ Text|Lao Mo

In fact, when we discuss the property market, few people have mentioned this: since March 2022, in less than two years, Lao Mei has raised interest rates 11 times in a row, and the interest rate has soared from 0.25% to 5.5%.

What is this concept? That translates to a 22-fold increase in interest rates. To be honest, it's very weird, and there must be something greasy in between. Now that I look back, it's no wonder that as early as 2018, Wu Xiaoling, the former deputy governor of the central bank, said these two sentences:

1. The United States wants to use the trade surplus to influence the mainland's monetary development;

2. Their ultimate goal is actually the real estate industry in the mainland.

The meaning is very straightforward, and the interest rate hike may be related to the mainland property market. You must know that as an industry that concentrates 60% of the wealth of mainland residents, if they succeed, the worst result will not only be the collapse of the real estate industry, but more importantly, the economic development will stagnate, and even return to 30 or 40 years ago......

Following this line of thought, it is not difficult to understand why the country really saves the property market, but the question is how should we break the situation?

01 / Restoring public confidence is the most important thing to break the deadlock

In fact, many people have not found out, whether it is to solve the debt risk of real estate enterprises, increase the construction of affordable housing, promote the sale of cash or strengthen the supervision of pre-sale funds. At the heart of it all boils down to four words: restore faith.

It has to be said that the achievements made in the development of the property market in the past are indeed worthy of our pride, and in just 25 years since 1998, our living environment has undergone earth-shaking changes. However, in the process, there are indeed some problems, and the bad end is one of the representatives.

Data shows that since the beginning of 2023, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in at least 30 cities across the country has exceeded that of new houses. Combined with the data of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the transaction volume of second-hand houses has increased by as much as 40% year-on-year.

In this case, we are not so much saying that the people have no confidence in the property market, but rather that we are really worried about the unfinished new houses.

In addition, another point is that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also mentions "building good houses". In fact, this is also fundamentally different from the past, and it is not easy to do this, first of all, developers must be required to take responsibility, that is, they must slow down the speed of land acquisition and construction.

As long as this road can be persistent, it is impossible for individuals and developers to continue to speculate on housing prices. On the other hand, this is one of the ways to restore confidence.

02 / The changes in the property market have begun, insiders: from next year, 2 types of people should pay attention

As mentioned before, these changes have indicated that the mainland property market has entered the "quality era" from the "era of quantity and speed", which is a proper change. In this case, there are insiders who remind that from next year, these two types of people should pay attention.

The first group is the group of people who expect housing prices to return to 20 years ago. Although these words are not true, it is true that if house prices can really plummet by 60% or 70%, the best time is 2021-early 2023. But did it come true? No.

However, although house prices have not plummeted as expected, they have indeed fallen a lot compared to a few years ago, which is good news. So, if you still have plans to buy a house, I have a suggestion to focus on the trend of deposit rates.

The reason is very simple, if the deposit interest rate is high, it means that everyone wants to save money, then the number of borrowers will definitely decrease, and vice versa. At the end of the point, everyone understands it in their hearts.

The second category, the high-ranking sentry who bought a house in the past few years. This is also a new word I invented, the so-called "high-ranking guards" are to buy a house in the case of high housing prices and high interest rates, in fact, they face a lot of difficulties.

The first is that there is too much pressure to repay the loan. For example, when the total price of the house is 2 million and 1.8 million respectively, and the interest rate is also 4%, the total interest for 30 years is 100,000 yuan, and the monthly payment is also more than 600 yuan.

The second is that you will suffer a loss when you change houses. In fact, most of us change houses are "sell one and buy one", this logic is very simple, because it is a high position to stand guard, the pressure of changing houses will be greatly increased, which is unacceptable to anyone.

Sum up:

Objectively speaking, whether it is the breakthrough of the property market or the real movement of the country, it can be said that it is reasonable and the trend of the development of the industry.

After all, whether it is the property market or the industrial manufacturing industry, in the process of development, it will encounter this or that problem, and if you want to solve it, you must adjust.

It's just that there are too many people who pay attention to the property market, whether we buy a house or not, we will say a few words when we see it. In addition, this time it is indeed time to break the game, which will be even more special.

What do you think about this?

Welcome to discuss, like, follow, and favorite!