When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, the country's metro network was only 229 kilometers, covering more than four cities, less than half the length of Shanghai's metro at the time. Since then, the Modi government has embarked on a massive construction process, with the country's metro network covering 18 cities with a total length of 870 kilometers in April last year, with nearly 1,000 kilometers of railways under construction in 27 cities. Last month, Navi Mumbai's first metro line opened in a high-profile manner, and its luxury has aroused heated discussions from the outside world.
While the pace and scale of India's metro construction in recent years has been impressive, the associated passenger numbers have been dismal, making Modi's ambitions high and low, or indirectly dragging down his election results next year.
As the world's most populous country, India has a population of 1.4 billion and nearly 13 million passengers travel by train every day, with 64,400 kilometers of train tracks enough to circumnavigate the globe. The new luxury metro project, known as the "NaMo Bharat Train", also known as the "Mini Bullet Train", is one of Narendra Modi's key developments and currently accounts for just over 1% of the overall rail network. Inspired by Japan's bullet trains, India has allocated record funding for infrastructure and safety upgrades, with a particular focus on modernizing new stations and high-speed electric trains.
However, according to a study by the Indian Institute of Technology, no metro system in India has reached half of its projected ridership. In Mumbai and Kolkata, actual ridership is only one-third of what is expected, while in most other Indian cities, the proportion is in the single digits or relatively small double digits. Only nearly half of Delhi accounts for 47 per cent, and the city has the longest and most extensive metro network in the country.
This is somewhat surprising considering that most cities in India lack decent public transportation, and that infrastructure projects such as the construction of subways are often popular with the local population. The less-than-expected passenger capacity has also had a terrible impact on operating revenue. Research by the Indian Institute of Management shows that, like the Indian Railways, no single metro system in the country is struggling to make ends meet.
Lack of population, commuting mismatch, and...
Why would Indians rather waste time in traffic jams than ride new, air-conditioned, comfortable subways? According to The Economist, there are three reasons why India's subways are not carrying as many passengers as expected.
First of all, Indian cities are not particularly densely populated, which means that for most people, the metro line is not within walking distance, and other public transport services are rarely connected to the metro line, so the daily use of the metro can be complicated and may require a one-wheel change such as walking, interconnecting with a bus or a motor tricycle.
Secondly, India's metro system is more suitable for long-distance commuting. Some local scholars believe that in India, the metro can only save time during journeys of 10 kilometres or more, but in most cities in the country, about 75 per cent of journeys are under 10 kilometres, and half are under 5 kilometres. Metro fares also tend to be high, with the Delhi Metro raising fares in 2017 resulting in a 15% drop in ridership.
India made the wrong bet
Some Indian traffic analysts and urban planners believe that "the country has made the wrong bet". To be sure, the construction of the MRT is important from both an economic and environmental point of view to address India's rapid urbanization and severe air pollution. Considering that as the country's middle class continues to expand, more and more people are opting for relatively comfortable private vehicles, which will lead to increased traffic congestion and pollution. IQAir, an air quality monitoring agency, estimates that car emissions account for up to one-third of PM2.5 concentrations in Indian cities.
Few other public transport services in India are connected to metro lines, so citizens often have to walk, transfer to buses or auto-rickshaws to get to the station.
According to some local experts, the main problem is that other public transport services are not only less costly in route planning, but also more flexible than the metro. Bus lanes are more suitable for the country, and the future development of green transportation such as electric buses is the best way to tackle India's traffic and air pollution.
However, India's attempts to establish such a system often fail due to poor implementation and enforcement, coupled with resistance from motorists and a lack of political will. Devashish Dhar, author of India's Blind Spot, which examines such urban issues, says it's easy to explain why the metro is being built instead of other public transport systems: "Buses aren't trendy, but the subway is. ”
Considering one or the other may affect the 2024 general election?
Speaking at the opening of a metro in October, Modi said that "NaMo Bharat" is both modern and fast, defining the aspirations of a new India and marking a historic moment for the entire country. He said the new metro is also a microcosm of India's future, reflecting the country's transformation as its economy continues to grow stronger, "the high-speed train is made in India and the mask door system on the platform is also made in India". He also reiterated that the country's railway system will be transformed in the next 10 years.
In fact, under the Modi government, the country has invested billions of dollars to upgrade and modernize its railways, including a plan to electrify 100% of its railways by 2024 and a goal of zero emissions by 2030. The railway sector is also in the process of installing a fire truck collision system, which allows trains to brake automatically, but so far the system has only operated in 2% of the railway network.
Some analysts believe that although the passenger capacity of India's metro project is not as good as it should be, safety is a top priority that the authorities need to deal with. At least 288 people were killed and 850 injured in a collision between two passenger trains in the Balasore region of the eastern Indian state of Odisha in June, and 13 dead and 39 injured in late October.
Some experts say that India's railways have been focusing on glamorous modernisation schemes, but more and more trains are being put on the tracks to meet demand, while the workforce is not growing in tandem, which has led to increased staff pressure, increased human error and slow installation of safety measures.
Concerns about railway safety are also growing in India, with the overall number of rail accidents increasing by 37 per cent last year. Although most of the accidents did not result in casualties, the Chairman of the Railway Commission regarded them as a matter of serious concern in the same year.
Nearly 100 million voters will vote in the South Asian nation's large country in April-May next year, and Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will seek a third term. Some analysts pointed out that although his current election momentum is obviously optimistic, considering that the prime minister has long been criticized by domestic sources, accusing him of inciting hostility towards a large number of Muslim minorities in the country, coupled with the suppression of civil liberties under his rule. If the development of the subway project that he actively promoted during his tenure is not as expected, I am afraid that people will add a bad debt to his political achievements.