After surpassing Japan in an all-round way and becoming the world's largest exporter, a sniper war is about to start, will half of the car companies die before 2030? Let's pay attention to it first and then talk.
Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the latest data, showing that from January to November, the mainland's automobile exports increased by 58% year-on-year to 4.412 million units. In comparison, Japan's exports in the same period were 3.99 million units, and the full year is expected to be around 4.3 million units.
This means that there is no suspense for us to ascend to the throne of the world's largest car exporter in 2023, and last year's defeat of Germany to become the world's second largest car exporter can be said to be another milestone event, which is gratifying.
China has been able to achieve such good results in just a few years, and new energy vehicles have contributed the most.
BYD, SAIC, Geely and other independent brands have conquered cities all over the world, especially BYD, exports this year exceeded 200,000 units, more than three times that of last year, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the third quarter were only 3,000 less than Tesla, and the fourth quarter is expected to surpass Tesla and rank first in the world. These are all worthy of affirmation.
However, we should also note that the world's largest car exporter still has a lot of luck and does not represent the real level.
After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a large number of European and American brands have withdrawn from Russia, which provides a golden opportunity for Chinese automakers.
In the first 10 months of this year alone, the mainland exported 736,000 vehicles to Russia, which has become the largest single market for Chinese cars. If this sales volume is removed, there may be a gap of 200,000-300,000 units between China and Japan.
Of course, more gaps are invisible and deep.
Japanese cars have won the favor of global consumers by good performance and very affordable prices, but our country's cars to seize the market almost entirely rely on price wars.
Take BYD, China's new energy vehicle brother, for example, the Yuan PLUS has attracted more attention in the European market, but the price of this car is only 38,000 euros, far lower than the average price of 5-60,000 euros for local electric vehicles.
Some people may say that our costs are lower than others. However, people do not think so, and it is easy to give authority to others when the price is obviously low, and it is regarded as malicious dumping at a low price.
France and Italy have begun to take steps to limit subsidies for Chinese-made electric vehicles, and Germany abruptly halted subsidies in December, in what was seen as a response to the rapid expansion of lower-priced Chinese products in the local market.
In September this year, European Commission President von der Leyen also said in the European Parliament's fourth "State of the Union" address that the global market is flooded with cheap Chinese electric vehicles, and their prices have been artificially depressed because of huge subsidies, "distorting" the European market, and the EU will launch a countervailing investigation into electric vehicles imported from the mainland.
Although countries have been relatively restrained so far, as downward pressure on the economy increases, a more intense conflict is likely to erupt in the coming years.
If our car companies do not try to complete the transformation and upgrading, I am afraid that I will not be able to cry at that time, and the domestic market alone will not be able to digest the production capacity, Xiaomi and other players are still joining, and it is estimated that more than half of them will die before 2030. What do you think? #中国汽车出口超越日本首成世界第一#