Many people have an expectation for the settlement of the dispute between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, that is, with the natural disintegration of the wrecked ship that the Philippines illegally "sat on" at Ren'ai Jiao, the big trouble between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea issue will naturally be eliminated, but this illusion can be abandoned. Recently, the chairman of the Philippine Finance Commission and Philippine Congressman Sonny Angara confirmed that in the country's 2024 budget allocation, there is a special plan to build a permanent building on Second Thomas Shoal. In other words, it seems unrealistic that the Marcos authorities are going to "build a house" on Ren'ai Jiao, and expect the Philippines to obediently withdraw after the breakdown of the wrecked ship that illegally "sat on the beach".
Of course, it is one thing for the Philippines to have such a plan, but whether it can be realized is another. In the past few months, the Philippine side has repeatedly attacked the waters of Ren'ai Jiao, trying to break through China's blockade and send building materials to reinforce the wrecked ship. However, as everyone knows, except for the ships that the Chinese side has given special convenience to transport fresh water and food, all other Philippine ships have been effectively blocked by the Chinese side, and not only have they not been able to deliver building materials and materials, but the Philippines itself has also damaged many transport ships. In this way, it is difficult for the Philippines to reinforce the broken ship, and it is also necessary to "build a new house" on Ren'ai Jiao, which is difficult to imagine.
In fact, the Marcos administration's expectations are probably pinned on the United States and its allies. The Philippines and the United States have been hyping up the topic of so-called joint patrols in the South China Sea in an attempt to attract more foreign countries to intervene in the South China Sea issue. To this end, the Philippines and the United States have made a lot of efforts, and a large number of countries have indeed shown a possible attitude of intervening, including Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union countries. In the view of the Marcos administration, the Philippines is not dealing with China alone, but has 31 countries, including the United States, to support itself. I am afraid that it is precisely because of this idea that the Marcos administration has become more and more obvious to show a tendency to "use joint patrols to contain China", so we have seen more and more warships of other countries appear in the South China Sea.
In the face of such a situation, China's goodwill for reconciliation may not be enough to deal with the situation, and if it does not release some practical warning signs, it may not be enough for the Philippines and foreign forces to stop provocations. Over the past period, China has sent clear signals to the Philippines at the military and diplomatic levels. Earlier this month, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a rare four-day live-fire military Xi in the South China Sea, and parts of the South China Sea were designated as bomb landing zones where ships are prohibited from entering. At such a sensitive moment, the PLA's launch of live ammunition in the South China Sea is not only a warning to the Philippines, but also a show of strength to those external forces that try to intervene in the South China Sea issue, reminding them not to think that the PLA will not take action, and to be cautious before following the United States in disrupting the South China Sea.
Moreover, when the People's Liberation Army (PLA) issued a warning to the United States and the Philippines, China's foreign affairs department also made very rare remarks. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently said when talking about the South China Sea issue that China-Philippines relations have reached a crossroads, and the Philippines must be cautious about what to do next. Next, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said something very serious, that is, if the Philippine side misjudges the situation, insists on going its own way, or even colludes with external forces with ill intentions, China will defend its rights in accordance with the law and resolutely respond! From the tone of Foreign Minister Wang Yi's speech, we can feel that China is already seriously dissatisfied with what the Philippines has done, and according to Chinese tradition, China has already done the Xi of saluting before fighting, and if a more acute conflict breaks out next, the Philippine side will obviously bear full responsibility. Now, there is not much opportunity left for the Philippine side to correct its mistakes, and the Marcos authorities had better stop in time, otherwise the consequences that await them will be very serious.