Key takeaways
Disc analysis
The economic data released by the United States is less than market expectations, the market is expected to further strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the U.S. stocks continue to fluctuate higher, the Dow hit a record high, and the domestic commercial banks have lowered the deposit listing interest rate again. In the end, the market fell 0.94% to close the week, the GEM fell 1.23%, and the total trading volume of the two cities decreased by about 10.84% compared with the previous week, which indicates that as the market continues to weaken, the market trading is thin, over-the-counter funds are wait-and-see, the activity of on-site funds is reduced, the market confidence is insufficient, and the sentiment is relatively sluggish.
The amount of energy has decreased, the activity of individual stocks has decreased, and the structural differentiation is still large, but the market style has begun to change, blue chips have stabilized and rebounded, theme stocks and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks have weakened, and the market has reduced the money-making effect. Last Friday, there were 21 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing, 1 stock was 20% up limit, 1 stock was 30% up limit, 36 stocks rose more than 10% above the limit board, 50 stocks fell to the limit, 72 stocks exceeded the 10% limit above the limit, 97 stocks rose by more than 5%, 265 stocks fell by more than 5%, and stocks fell more than the price of the stock rose less.
As the end of the year approaches, institutional funds from offensive to defensive, to speed up the pace of adjustment, last week better performance for photovoltaic, lithium battery, liquor, home appliances, banks, coal, nonferrous metals, electric power, petrochemical, construction machinery, etc., the top decliners for cultural media, Internet, computers, 5G concept, real estate, commercial chains, brokers, automobiles, etc. The amount of energy continues to shrink, the structural differentiation is still the same, the style has changed, the market has bottomed out, the theme has fallen, the blue chips have become stronger, the money-making effect has decreased, and the money-losing effect still exists.
Technical analysis
From a technical point of view, the market opened low last week, and then rebounded out of the bottom to regain some of the lost ground, 2900 points were lost, but it still closed with a decline, and showed a trend of price decline and contraction. The market fell below 2885 points intraday, the weekly MACD indicator and SKD indicator diverged from the bottom, and the weekly index deviated far from the 5-week line, which was technically seriously oversold, and the market technically had a rebound requirement, challenging the pressure on the 5-week line.
Daily technical indicators show that after the market opened high on Friday, it once rose sharply in the intraday, and in the afternoon, there was a diving trend in the intraday, and the end of the session recovered some of the lost ground, and still closed with a decline, and showed a trend of increasing price decline. All moving averages are arranged shorts, the 5-day line gains and losses, the 10-day line is near the counter-pressure, the volume and price relationship of the price decline increase, and the K-line combination is the "shooting star", after the short-term intraday repeated, it is expected to come out of the rebound trend again.
The technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show that the 15-minute SKD indicator is at the bottom and the golden cross, the 30-minute K-line combination is a "flat bottom line", the 30-minute MACD indicator is re-strengthened, the 60-minute K-line combination is a "single-needle bottom", the 60-minute MACD indicator continues to strengthen the bulls, and the short-term market still has a rebound requirement.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 price rose and contracted, the 5-day line supported, the 10-day line recovered, the volume and price divergence trend of the price increase and contraction, and there were callback requirements in the short-term intraday, but the daily MACD indicator golden cross, the daily SKD indicator bulls strengthened, the weekly SKD indicator bottom and about to golden cross, after the intraday pullback, there are continued upward requirements.
The price of the 50 science and technology innovation increased, the 5-day line was lost and regained, the 10-day line was counter-pressured, the price fell and the volume of the increase in the price relationship, and there were callback requirements in the short-term intraday, but the daily SKD indicator golden cross, the release of the amount of energy, the daily MACD indicator continued to diverge from the bottom, the weekly MACD indicator continued to diverge from the bottom, the 60-minute MACD indicator continued to strengthen the bulls, and there was a rebound requirement in the short-term intraday.
The price decline of the gem increased, the 5-day line was lost and regained, the 10-day line was counter-pressurized, the volume and price relationship of the price decline increased, and the K-line combination was a "shooting star", and the short-term intraday was repeated, and it is expected to get out of the rebound trend.
Based on comprehensive technical analysis, we believe that the short-term market may be repeated in the intraday, but the continued release of volume and energy means that the market activity has increased and the bottom of the chips has been exchanged The effect is reappearing, the upward momentum of the market still exists, after repeated intraday, the market will continue to rise, challenge 2950 points and 10 days near the pressure or a high probability event, whether it can cross 2950 points, whether the amount of energy can continue to release is the key, if the amount of energy can continue to release, the market is expected to cross 2950 points and challenge 3000 points, if the amount of energy is difficult to effectively release, the market will fluctuate below 2950 points.
Fundamental analysis
Last week, A-shares started a 2900-point defense war, 2900 points not only lost, the market also fell below 2885 points, in last year's two lows between 2863 points and 2885 points between 2882 points to stabilize and rebound, in the process of the market bottoming out, regardless of whether the intraday is up or down, the two markets can be continuously released, which means that after the market 2900 points lost, there is an outflow of panic in the market, and there is also an inflow of funds outside the market, and the "siege" of the market The effect has emerged, although there are external disturbance factors from time to time, and the structural market trend has been ups and downs, but the bottom characteristics of the market have appeared.
So, as the year is approaching, whether A-shares have a New Year's Eve market, whether 2024 will have a spring market, whether the market in 2024 can end the "two consecutive yin" trend, get out of the upward trend, and close in the red, or the market will continue to fall, out of the annual line "three consecutive yin" trend, where is the structural market for the New Year and next year, and what structural risks need to be avoided? This is the question that the market is concerned about, and our view is:
First, A-shares have a New Year's Eve market. In the second half of this year, A-shares continued to be sluggish, in addition to geopolitical factors that triggered the acceleration of foreign capital outflow from A-shares, resulting in "blood loss" of A-shares In addition, there is a large number of special bonds issued by local governments for chemical bonds, which occupies a large amount of liquidity, the funding rate has continued to rise since late August, and the A-share market continues to be in a tight liquidity situation, and the end of the year is approaching, the funding rate remains strong, and the liquidity pressure continues unabated, which is one of the internal reasons why the market continues to weaken and falls below 2885 points, but with the completion of the return of funds at the end of the year, the liquidity pressure will be weakened, and the improvement of liquidity is a high probability event, laying the foundation for the New Year's Eve market.
From the perspective of historical law, at the end of each year, liquidity has improved across the year, and after the market fell below 2885 points, the market is not only at a low level, but the daily MACD indicator of the market continues to show a "bottom divergence" Among the major broad-based indexes, the 50-day MACD indicator of the science and technology innovation line has diverged from the bottom three times in a row, the weekly MACD indicator has diverged from the bottom continuously, the daily MACD indicator of the ChiNext 50 index has diverged from the bottom, and the weekly MACD indicator has diverged from the bottom three times in a row, which has sent a signal of bottoming out of A-shares, which has also laid the foundation for the New Year's Eve market.
Second, next year's rising market is available. In our previous report, we emphasized that the high and low of the "position" determines the trend of the market to a certain extent, especially the trend of the spring market, the low point of the market at the beginning of 2019 is 2440 points, 2440 points is the low point after five consecutive quarters of continuous decline, and it is also the "resonance" formed after the decline of large and small market capitalization stocks At the beginning of 2022, after three consecutive years of rise, the stock price was at a high level since the rise of 2440 points, and there was an adjustment trend at the beginning of 2022, and it is reasonable that it did not get out of the spring market.
After two consecutive years of adjustment, the current market is at a low level in the past two years, and the historical law shows that the annual line of the market has not appeared "three consecutive yin" trend The trend is a high probability event, and the market is at a low level since the pullback of 3731 points, so the annual line of the market in 2024 can not only achieve the closing of the positive line, but also the spring rise is also reasonable, the probability of the market in 2024 continuing the downward trend in 2023 is low, and the downward space of the market is far lower than the upward space, as we predicted in the annual market analysis report "Who Dominates the Ups and Downs", the high point of the market in 2024 is expected to be 3600 points - 3700 points.
Third, structural opportunities and risks coexist. The main line of the structural market of each year is not unanimously expected by the market, but appears inadvertently, but there is one rule that remains unchanged, that is, the main line of the structural market in the new year must appear in the downturn of the industry index for more than two consecutive years, and the industry index has fallen by more than 50% Above, the industry prosperity is sluggish to the extreme, and the market is unanimously bearish and does not dare to be bullish on the industry, such as TMT from 2013 to 2015, TMT from 2019 to 2020, new energy and military industry from 2019 to 2021, and AI and communications this year.
After two consecutive years of sharp decline, CSI New Energy, represented by photovoltaic and lithium batteries, fell by nearly 63% from high to low , the index basically fell back to a low level, coupled with the industry's downturn to the extreme, to the production capacity is speeding up, next year has the fundamental and technical conditions to bottom out and become the main line of the market, in addition to similar conditions is biomedicine (mainly innovative drugs), it is expected that the main line of the market next year is in new energy and biomedicine, on the contrary, this year's performance is better in culture and entertainment, recently issued by the National Press and Publication Administration "Online Game Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" The impact on the culture and entertainment industry, as well as the impact of the economic cycle on the real estate industry chain, is still the same, and it is debatable whether the relevant industry indices can outperform the market next year.
Our view remains the same, that is, 2882 points is expected to become the low point at the end of the year, the market is expected to complete the shock bottom in the week before the end of the year, the New Year's Eve market is worth looking forward to, leading the A-share New Year's Eve market is expected to be the 50 index dominated by blue chips and new blue chips, but the annual line of the market "two consecutive yin" is a high probability event, and the 2024 market positive line rise is a high probability event, the performance of A shares in the first half of the year is expected to be stronger than that in the second half of the year, supplemented by the systematic market, the structural market is the mainstay, "new energy + biomedicine" It is expected to become the main line of the market next year.
Operational Strategy
The 50 index is expected to become the main battlefield of the closing battle of the year, but the small and medium-sized market stocks with higher gains during the year still have the risk of making up for the fall, and the spring market is expected to form a trend of resonance between blue chips and themes, cycles and growth. In terms of operation, light indexes and heavy stocks, pay attention to investment opportunities in brokerages, new energy, energy, biomedicine, semiconductors, military industry, food and beverages and bottom-rebound stocks on dips, and avoid junk stocks and theme stocks with high stock prices.
Simulate stock portfolios at the right time
Chart 1: 2023 simulated stock portfolio
Data source: Founder Securities Research Institute WIND information
Chart 2: Portfolio relative to CSI 300 returns
Data source: Founder Securities Research Institute WIND information
This article is from a selection of brokerage research reports