On December 20, Brent crude oil broke through $80 per barrel, the first time since December 1, up 0.72% on the day.
According to the latest forecast of Wall Street officials, oil prices have some room to recover next year, although they may not rebound sharply. The average forecast of the five major banks for Brent crude oil in 2024 is around $85 per barrel.
In addition, Citi had the lowest forecast of $75 per barrel, while Goldman Sachs had the highest forecast of $92 per barrel. Global oil demand is widely expected to grow further next year from this year's record levels. Goldman Sachs is the most bullish.
Among them, according to Goldman Sachs' latest forecast, the average price of Brent crude oil in 2024 will be $92 / barrel, of which $86 / barrel in the first quarter, $92 / barrel in the second quarter, $95 / barrel in the third quarter, and $94 / barrel in the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand to increase by 1.6 million b/d next year and expects core OPEC members to tightly control supply. Analysts led by Daan Struyven said this would create a "modest supply gap" in global markets and keep oil prices in the range of $80 to $100 a barrel.
Global crude oil volume increased by 5.1%
Global demand for crude oil transportation has improved. According to the Ministry of Transport's "2022 Waterway Transport Market Development and 2023 Market Outlook", as of December 2022, the global crude oil shipping volume was about 1.953 billion tons, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year, and basically recovered to the level of 2019.
China's coastal crude oil volume increased by 18.2% year-on-year
In the first half of the year, especially since March, due to factors such as the surge in international oil prices, the new crown epidemic and the traditional maintenance season of refineries, the transportation demand has weakened, and in the second half of the year, with the stabilization of oil prices and the gradual recovery of the overall load of refineries, transportation demand has gradually recovered, and the annual transportation volume has increased. From the perspective of crude oil and refined oil transportation, in 2022, the coastal crude oil transportation volume will complete 91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, and the refined oil transportation volume will complete 85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.
Bank of China Securities pointed out that the oil transportation boom is under pressure, and the oil transportation market is booming.
According to Cinda Securities, the demand side of the oil transportation industry mainly depends on the oil trade structure around the world, and the supply side mainly depends on the size and transportation efficiency of the tanker fleet of various shipowners around the world. At this stage, the supply growth of the industry is limited, and the increase in demand is expected to release the elasticity of freight rates and drive the profitability of relevant shipowners to improve.
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