Straight News: We saw that as the 2024 election on the island approached, large-scale campaign activities were held in the blue, white and green sides this past weekend. What kind of observations did you have?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: In fact, with the earlier breakthrough of the "blue-white combination", the decline of Ke Wenzhe's polls, and the return of the pan-blue voters who were once diverted by Ke Wenzhe and Guo Taiming, the blue-white-green tripartite showdown that the outside world originally expected did not appear in the end, and the 2024 election on the island has returned to the basic situation of the traditional blue-green showdown.
So in this blue-green duel election situation, for the KMT, the advantage lies in the very regular "pendulum effect" that appeared in the election on the island. As you can see, since the opening of elections on the island, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have maintained the basic pattern of two terms in power, that is, eight years, in a very regular manner, and this pattern has never been broken in the past 30 years or so.
This "pendulum effect" actually reflects the maturity and rationality of the voters on the island, that is, they hope to form a two-party political ecology of mutual supervision and checks and balances through the method of "changing the party" to prevent either party from becoming a dominant party in the KMT or the DPP. Therefore, since the DPP has been in power for eight years, the "pendulum effect" this time is favorable to the KMT. In recent years, as much as 60 percent of the public has always supported the removal of the DPP, which is actually a concrete embodiment of this "pendulum effect". This is very beneficial to the Kuomintang.
Then there are two unfavorable situations for the Kuomintang: one is that after so many years of political games, the political ecology of the island, which has been maintained for a long time, is greater than green, that is, the basic market of the blue camp is far greater than that of the green camp, has reversed and become more green than blue. This is the reason why Lai Ching-te has always been in the lead in the polls, remaining at about 3 to 5 to 4 percent, and at the same time, it is also the reason why Hou Youyi's support rate has returned to about 30 percent; second, the KMT's vote sources mainly come from middle-aged and elderly voters, and it is difficult to attract the votes of Taiwan's young people.
In this case, if the KMT wants to turn around and win the 2024 election on the island, it must expand the votes of middle voters outside the basic market of the blue camp, especially to win the support of young people on the island. The votes of middle voters, especially young voters, are mainly concentrated on Ke Wenzhe, so how the KMT and the People's Party, Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe interact next, becomes extremely crucial. This will be the winner or loser of the election.
Straight News: In this 2024 election on the island, where will Ke Wenzhe, who represents the white power, and the election of the People's Party go?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: As I mentioned earlier, since this election campaign did not form a three-legged blue-white-green three-legged situation, but returned to the traditional blue-green duel situation, white power will inevitably be in the embarrassing situation of being marginalized. This is the negative side of the white camp. However, good and bad depend on each other, and everything has disadvantages and benefits. For Ko Wenzhe and the People's Party, this is not a bad thing. Because Ke Wenzhe and the People's Party can not only avoid the attack and pincer of the blue and green, but also take advantage of the disgust of some voters to the vicious fighting of the blue and green parties to further consolidate the support of the middle voters.
However, although Ke Wenzhe's public opinion support has shown signs of stabilizing to a certain extent in recent days, because his poll support rate has dropped below 20%, it is basically the general trend.
However, I still want to remind everyone that this does not mean that the White Camp and the People's Party are a force that can be underestimated, on the contrary, Ko Wenzhe can still influence the direction of the election of the leader and the representative of the people in the Taiwan region with his support rate of about 15 to 20 percent. Specifically, in the election of the leader of the Taiwan region, when the support rates of Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde were close to being inseparable, Ke Wenzhe's attitude was very intriguing. At the same time, if none of the three parties in the election of representatives of the people, the blue, white and green parties have a majority, then the white camp can use its key seats of 7 to 8 seats to combine with any political force in the blue and green to control Taiwan's legislature.
In this case, I believe that after the "blue and white cooperation" is broken, the blue and white parties can still find a new way of "blue and white cooperation" in the future, which is also the best and only way out for Baiying and Ke Wenzhe. The specific method is that Ke Wenzhe strengthened the votes of young voters by beating Lai Qingde and the DPP, and at the same time snatched the votes of more young people from Lai Qingde and the DPP as much as possible, and secretly helped Hou Youyi and the KMT win the election. After accomplishing this goal, Hou Youyi and the KMT can then recruit Ko Wenzhe into the political team, and at the same time cooperate with the People's Party to win more than half of the seats in Taiwan's legislature.
Straight News: What are your observations on the current election situation in the green camp?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: As I just mentioned, the basic market of the green camp is already larger than that of the blue camp, and over the years, the basic market of the green camp has been in a stable state. Not only has the basic market of the green camp never been split, but it is also very disciplined and obedient, and it will vote for the DPP no matter what, as long as it gives an order. This is the reason why Lai Qingde and the DPP believe that as long as they adhere to Tsai Ing-wen's policies and line and closely rely on the basic market, they can "choose and win while lying down".
The disadvantages of Lai Qingde and the DPP are as follows: First, the "pendulum effect" of the election, which has basically not been broken in the past 30 years, is quite unfavorable to them, especially since the support of Hou Youyi and the KMT is still climbing and rising; second, holding the ruling power is both an advantage and a disadvantage of Lai Qingde and the DPP. Third, over the past few years, the supporters of the DPP have mainly relied on those young people on the island who have "Taiwan independence" tendencies, but due to Ko Wenzhe's half-way cutoff, a considerable number of these young people have turned to support the People's Party; fourth, the saber-rattling posture in the Taiwan Strait over the past eight years has gradually increased the number of people looking forward to cross-strait peace, and this will make the DPP's habitual practice of "resisting the mainland and protecting Taiwan." "The cards don't shine anymore.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".