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Literature 丨 Central Meteorological Observatory, GFS, easterlywave, Japan Meteorological Agency, Wenzhou Typhoon Network, Global Flow Field, Sunflower-8 satellite
Editor 丨 Chinese typhoon research enthusiast
On October 13, super typhoon "Bravan" gradually entered the "year of antiquity", monitoring from satellite data shows that super typhoon "Bravan" has gradually been pulled and deformed by the jet area of the westerly wind belt, the bottom circulation center is gradually exposed, and the eye wall on the south side has almost disappeared. What is shown on the cloud map is a long strip of clouds with hair. It is clear that Typhoon Bravan is about to be transformed into an extratropical cyclone.
The wind king "Bravan" finally became warm
This year's fifteenth typhoon Bravan formed near the Mariana Islands and was named Bravan by the Japan Meteorological Agency on October 7, and its legend began.
First of all, after it was recognized as a super typhoon by the Central Meteorological Observatory on October 11, it lasted for two days and six hours, and was not downgraded to a strong typhoon until 14 pm on October 13, the longest time it continued to exceed the platform this year.
Among them, the peak intensity reached the officially recognized level of 17 or more, 68 m/s, 900 hPa, with an advantage of 5 hPa stronger than the super typhoon "Mawa", sitting on this year's wind king throne.
At present, the strong typhoon "Bravan" has been downgraded to 14 degrees, is rushing northeast at a speed of 66 kilometers per hour, because the west wind prevails at high latitudes on the mainland, commonly known as the westerly wind belt, generally around the latitude of the northern and southern hemispheres of 35-65 degrees of planetary scale weather system, the speed can generally reach more than 200 kilometers. Therefore, the medium- and large-scale weather system of typhoons cannot be compared with the planetary-scale westerly wind belt, and will be pulled away like a son. Later, it will be transformed into an extratropical cyclone by the westerly wind belt inner front, which will continue to affect the United States and Canada.
New hurricane imports to the western Pacific
After the super typhoon "Bravan" left, the northwest Pacific Ocean, the world's first warm pool, was vacated again, and from the latest values, there was almost no sign of typhoon formation. But we looked further and found that there was some reaction to the Central Pacific values, thinking that there was a typhoon embryo that developed in the Central Pacific in the later stage, and then moved into the Western Pacific and strengthened into this year's No. 16 typhoon "Samba".
However, according to the recent numerical values, the path of Typhoon Sanba is changeable and the intensity is uncertain, such as:
Forecast time: October 12, 00:00
Forecast conclusion: Typhoon under the guidance of easterly air flow on the south side of the subtropical high, all the way west, reaching a peak of 917 hPa when it reaches the offshore of the Philippines, and even the peak is stronger than Typhoon "Bravan", because there is no other tropical cyclone consumption on the way from the ocean to the Philippines, generally this westward typhoon intensity is very high, making full use of all the energy of the warm pool, such as Typhoon "Mangkhut" in 18 is such an example.
Forecast time: October 13, 00:00
Forecast conclusion: Today's 13th 00:00 this report is very different, no longer supports the development of the Sino-Pacific typhoon, and directly dissipated soon after.
To sum up, Typhoon Sanba still has great uncertainty, so please continue to pay attention.
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